1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[ShawnEastTN]

Yep and that’s going over areas that will get over .50 of ice…

Sometimes you have to look at a model and just say that doesn’t look right. EURO hasn’t looked right to me.


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Someone else mentioned today about the January 2024 storm how the GFS was more accurate and it really was considering how much of a mess the GFS has become. WVLT rode the Euro with their forecast and busted big time. I have a feeling this storm is going to be very similar to the January 2024 storm, except swap the snow with ice.

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[bearman]

Yes, the European (EURO/ECMWF) weather model successfully incorporated data from American Hurricane Hunter dropsondes

 for the major winter storm affecting the U.S. West Coast around January 20–22, 2026. 

Key Details on Data Integration:

Active Assimilation: The 00z ECMWF run on January 20, 2026, was specifically noted as the first to incorporate the dropsonde data, which caused the model to "flinch" and adjust its forecast northward.

[Daniel Boone]

5 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

PLEASE SHARE: We are expecting snow, sleet, freezing rain, & rain. As of now, here’s what our team is thinking as far as snow & ice accum. 
The biggest takeaway is that travel will not only be dangerous but nearly impossible at times. Power outages are expected. Watch @WKRN!

Didn't they used to be on that old Comedy variety show HeeHaw ?

[bearman]

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.  I did hope you guys were on to something. I am still not giving up I have seen too many things change in the last few runs to ever throw in the towel.

[TellicoWx]

7 minutes ago, bearman said:

Yes, the European (EURO/ECMWF) weather model successfully incorporated data from American Hurricane Hunter dropsondes

 for the major winter storm affecting the U.S. West Coast around January 20–22, 2026. 

Key Details on Data Integration:

Active Assimilation: The 00z ECMWF run on January 20, 2026, was specifically noted as the first to incorporate the dropsonde data, which caused the model to "flinch" and adjust its forecast northward.

Maybe they forget to switch it from standard to metric? (Just joking)

[Tucker1027]

Yes, the European (EURO/ECMWF) weather model successfully incorporated data from American Hurricane Hunter dropsondes
 for the major winter storm affecting the U.S. West Coast around January 20–22, 2026. 
Key Details on Data Integration:
Active Assimilation: The 00z ECMWF run on January 20, 2026, was specifically noted as the first to incorporate the dropsonde data, which caused the model to "flinch" and adjust its forecast northward.

I thought the first flight was yesterday?


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[TellicoWx]

Probably doesn't mean alot here on east side of the state, but for western folks. 0z hrrr coming in further south in Arkansas with the winter weather.

[Mrwolf1972]

6 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Probably doesn't mean alot here on east side of the state, but for western folks. 0z hrrr coming in further south in Arkansas with the winter weather.

Seems slower too

[Tucker1027]

HRRR is south ... 

[bearman]

18 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

I thought the first flight was yesterday?


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It was AI data, so I should have said that with all the disclaimers.

[Greyhound]

I thought the first flight was yesterday?


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You are correct. The other flights prior to yesterday were “repositioning” flights.


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[Scottie16]

HRRR is south ... 

Dew points in single temps at the end of the run which is damn good!


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[Mrwolf1972]

Why is it in 40s before the precipitation even gets to the valley 

[GBOVolz]

Why is it in 40s before the precipitation even gets to the valley 

Because it’s us


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[Mrwolf1972]

Hrrr has no precipitation in valley until after 4pm 

[fountainguy97]

Hrrr is not leading. It's following the rest. It's not useful until inside 24hrs

 

it made a big jump here at 00z but it looks like it just lines up with what the 12z set was.

[Mrwolf1972]

Nam has hp 1055

[TellicoWx]

Just now, fountainguy97 said:

Hrrr is not leading. It's following the rest. It's not useful until inside 24hrs

^^^ Hrrr is only just starting to get in range for western borders. Outside 18 hrs is about it's limit to me.

[Daniel Boone]

10 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Because it’s us


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The great Valley warm slot. We'd get more Snow in some Area's if the Cumberlands and Smokies weren't there, lol . Downslope and warm nose Habitat. 

[Tucker1027]

NAM is slower and maybe a tick south (?) 

[Nash_LSU]

17 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Because it’s us


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I don't know. The more things seem to be shaping up, the more I'm envious y'all will be getting rain. I'm sitting here with a 70% chance of getting >0.25" of ice on top of a layer of sleet that's on top of a layer of snow. 

 

[WintryMixmaster]

Obviously a different setup, but if I remember correctly, the January 2025 storm forecast was pretty much set in stone and the phase ended up being a bit sloppy/late, giving the southern valley/N GA/N AL a surprise snow (and leading to a small bust for the northern valley). So I guess it isn't impossible that with so many pieces of energy coming together, this could surprise us despite the models seemingly converging on the amped solution. I feel like my ideal scenario would be the first wave coming in weaker and a few counties south giving us a nice front end snow/sleet, and the second wave coming in as temperatures go above freezing and giving us plain rain with no ZR in between. 

[Matthew70]

For the last few hours I’ve seen several forecasters saying it’s slowing down. So what does that mean for the downstream effects. 

[GBOVolz]

I don't know. The more things seem to be shaping up, the more I'm envious y'all will be getting rain. I'm sitting here with a 70% chance of getting >0.25" of ice on top of a layer of sleet that's on top of a layer of snow. 
 

If there is a bright spot it very well could be that. But I also remember all those years where I was furious over 33 and rain.


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[Weatheriscool]

5 minutes ago, Nash_LSU said:

I don't know. The more things seem to be shaping up, the more I'm envious y'all will be getting rain. I'm sitting here with a 70% chance of getting >0.25" of ice on top of a layer of sleet that's on top of a layer of snow. 

 

Right there with you!

[GBOVolz]

For the last few hours I’ve seen several forecasters saying it’s slowing down. So what does that mean for the downstream effects. 

It doesn’t get there as fast













I kid…. I kid


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[ShawnEastTN]

Obviously a different setup, but if I remember correctly, the January 2025 storm forecast was pretty much set in stone and the phase ended up being a bit sloppy/late, giving the southern valley/N GA/N AL a surprise snow (and leading to a small bust for the northern valley). So I guess it isn't impossible that with so many pieces of energy coming together, this could surprise us despite the models seemingly converging on the amped solution. I feel like my ideal scenario would be the first wave coming in weaker and a few counties south giving us a nice front end snow/sleet, and the second wave coming in as temperatures go above freezing and giving us plain rain with no ZR in between. 

ABSOLUTELY! I don't think anyone should be thinking anything about this storm is set in stone, the tiniest things off by just a little can make a huge difference. Whether that surface temps off by a couple degrees or strength of the storm off by a few MB, or storm tracks 50 or 100 miles off modeled track. All of those things are super minor and might not be modeled well but have huge impacts. This storm for us will really be a nowcast scenario, this storm I am certain will have surprises both good and bad I believe for different areas.

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[Carvers Gap]

42 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

NAM is slower and maybe a tick south (?) 

Out to 27...2-3 degrees colder over E TN than its run at 18z.

[Reb]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Out to 27...2-3 degrees colder over E TN.

How is it compared to the 18z GFS?

[jaxjagman]

You;d rather see it speed up tho not slow down,this is gonna be a brutal run