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1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread


AMZ8990
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What model suite will have the first of the recon data incorporated? Like one of the comments on the last page mentioned, it's interesting (in a bad way) like someone said that the cone of uncertainty for the heavy snow axis/amounts/snow-ice line seemed to be narrowing, and the Euro/Euro AI were very consistent over several suites, and then they suddenly made this kind of a jump. What did they see that was different?

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4 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

So this run manages to back into a Lakes low…..  lol

I am 63 years old and have been down this road for a long time, and 9 times out of 10 we always get screwed at this latitude.  Still a long way to go, but I feel like it is a long way to go until I see the snow on radar coming up the Valley.

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5 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

So Lucy has arrived.  Ugh.

The 18z Euro would be a really bad ice storm for most...before changing to rain on the back end.  In my few experiences w/ ice in the eastern valley....if that cold gets trapped, it doesn't get scoured.  I think the depth of the cold air keeps it frozen.  It's just what version of frozen does the forum get that is the question for me.

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1 minute ago, *Flash* said:

I really don’t want to see Bam take a victory lap. 

Bam makes sure to make predictions for all sides of things.  He basically canceled winter and had to retract the next day.  He will always be right, because he predicts every outcome.

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Bam makes sure to make predictions for all sides of things.  He basically canceled winter and had to retract the next day.  He will always be right, because he predicts every outcome.

Yesterday he was riding the CMC until it trended south.


.
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2 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:


Yesterday he was riding the CMC until it trended south.


.

That dude has been bad all winter.  Flips badly almost daily.  I stopped reading his stuff a year or two ago - I mainly see it in the ENSO or MA forum - can't remember which.  He is just working for clicks.  

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Just now, Carvers Gap said:

That dude has been bad all winter.  Flips badly almost daily.  I stopped reading his stuff a year or two ago.  He is just working for clicks.  

 

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Small changes with the 850 from run to run model to model is what is leading to significant changes in the p-type.

I have no idea if it’ll happen in this case but many times, you’ll see models shift one direction in the mid-range then attempt to correct in the other direction as the event nears.  Really wouldn’t surprise me either way.

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