January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[baltosquid]

MSLP looks more coastal, less WV on EPS

Edit: ditto for AI EPS

[bncho]

IMO if a UKMET solution happens then it's likely underdoing QPF IMO... there could be 3" per hour rates in some areas during the hours before the changeover

[wxmeddler]

To Clarify, He thinks we're going to get something, but is worried about an early changeover. And I think the "Rather be in Chicago" comment was a bit of an exaggeration. But I am worried about the 700mb temps with the 850 low tracking westward. He also noted that the Euro is a bit too amped on the coastal low takeovers in general.

Don't shoot the messenger. 

[nw baltimore wx]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I like Louis as a person and as a winter mind, but I think he needs to lay off the hard liquor. There isn’t a single model that is that route and there won’t be. Not sure why he said that. Need a full phase over the Four Corners for that. 

For my sake, let's hope it's age and not hard liquor.

[wxmeddler]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

I like Louis as a person and as a winter mind, but I think he needs to lay off the hard liquor. There isn’t a single model that is that route and there won’t be. Not sure why he said that. Need a full phase over the Four Corners for that. 

I think he's also used to an era that you could have a 300 mile shift 24 hours prior to an event and it not be uncommon. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

To Clarify, He thinks we're going to get something, but is worried about an early changeover. And I think the "Rather be in Chicago" comment was a bit of an exaggeration. But I am worried about the 700mb temps with the 850 low tracking westward. He also noted that the Euro is a bit too amped on the coastal low takeovers in general.

Don't shoot the messenger. 

Maybe if you had bought him lunch instead pleading poverty and having him pay, you would have gotten a different opinion?

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

To Clarify, He thinks we're going to get something, but is worried about an early changeover. And I think the "Rather be in Chicago" comment was a bit of an exaggeration. But I am worried about the 700mb temps with the 850 low tracking westward. He also noted that the Euro is a bit too amped on the coastal low takeovers in general.

Don't shoot the messenger. 

So what about gfs being just as good, ukmet? Seems kinda like a off the hip comment 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Also, we're still in the range that this could substantially shift in any direction. Could move 100 miles north, could move 100 miles south. We thought we were sitting pretty yesterday, but the mix line moved north 150 miles. Not a guarantee that it will keep moving north, stop, or windshield wiper back south.

Besides a few ticks here or there I don't see tons of changes going forward 

Big systems inside 5 days don't alter much.

[TSSN+]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Besides a few ticks here or there I don't see tons of changes going forward 

Big systems inside 5 days don't alter much.

Ya that do. But not usually 300 miles lol

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, TJ3 said:

What did PD II give us snow wise before the crust?

I was in Herndon VA for that, got about 18" of snow followed by several inches of sleet.  

[winter_warlock]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

BAM thinks the CMC and UK are off their rockers.

How credible and accurate are the guys at BAM weather? 

[baltosquid]

I prefer Randy’s play by play to Uccellini’s

[TSSN+]

Who has got eps?

[hstorm]

16 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

I had lunch with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a westward trend going forward. Especially with an 850 low going into the OV. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. 

"I'd rather be in Chicago" 

Was the lunch in Georgetown?

[WxUSAF]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Trying to figure EPS on Pivotal. Generally looks really good. Less amped than Op. Comparing to 0z looks a bit drier and flatter. On the mean probably stays all snow for DC and N/W? It’s close.

 

6 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

MSLP looks more coastal, less WV on EPS

Edit: ditto for AI EPS

 

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Who has got eps?

 

[bncho]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

How credible and accurate are the guys at BAM weather? 

For this winter storm, they called the North shift perfectly. 48 hours ago, while we were sweating suppression they were thinking DC and Balt would mix.

[DMAC98]

Just something to keep in mind. I honestly completely forgot about this.

https://x.com/weathertrackus/status/2014021511263252774

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Who has got eps?

 

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So wait...one thing we're not talking enough about is the temps.  I'm going over the Euro and I need to make sure I'm reading this right...temps don't look to get above freezing at all the next week?

This could end up being the bigger story when it's all over 

[RIC_WX]

7 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

To Clarify, He thinks we're going to get something, but is worried about an early changeover. And I think the "Rather be in Chicago" comment was a bit of an exaggeration. But I am worried about the 700mb temps with the 850 low tracking westward. He also noted that the Euro is a bit too amped on the coastal low takeovers in general.

Don't shoot the messenger. 

I certainly would not dismiss his opinion at all.  That said, he should share these thoughts with LWX given their threat map is at deep purple CWA wide, not sure I can remember seeing that before.

[SnowenOutThere]

12z Euro is interesting when compared to its 0z run. On the H5 panels we get trends which cancel out. We have a messier phase out west as the wave spacing favors kicking the shortwave east. 

Compare it to 0z and that secondary Canadian shortwave helps it dig and amplify even more.

Interestingly, this offsets that there is less confluence thanks to the PV scooting out even faster for our 12z run. However, the confluence that does exist appears better oriented (combined with the western wave spacing) to block its latitude gain. The result is a slightly less intense storm that travels about the same track.   

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 

Solid 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

15z SREF looks more amped/north

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This could end up being the bigger story when it's all over 

I think this storm is legitimately dangerous for our area now. Of course, 12-18inches of snow is dangerous in its own right but 12-16inches of snow plus .2 of freezing rain or an inch of sleet followed by extreme cold has the ability to kill people if the freezing rain threat materializes for places southeast of DC (baring no more NW shifts).

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I like Louis as a person and as a winter mind, but I think he needs to lay off the hard liquor. There isn’t a single model that is that route and there won’t be. Not sure why he said that. Need a full phase over the Four Corners for that. 

but day drinking is the best 

[StormyClearweather]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I think this storm is legitimately dangerous for our area now. Of course, 12-18inches of snow is dangerous in its own right but 12-16inches of snow plus .2 of freezing rain or an inch of sleet followed by extreme cold has the ability to kill people if the freezing rain threat materializes for places southeast of DC (baring no more NW shifts).

To your point, just did a 24H max temp check, and ECMWF has us go below freezing at 0Z Sunday and not get above through the end of its run. In fact, many of us don't even get out of the 20s through that period. 

[RevWarReenactor]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I think this storm is legitimately dangerous for our area now. Of course, 12-18inches of snow is dangerous in its own right but 12-16inches of snow plus .2 of freezing rain or an inch of sleet followed by extreme cold has the ability to kill people if the freezing rain threat materializes for places southeast of DC (baring no more NW shifts).

I remember the blizzard of 1993. It was a foot of snow. Followed by freezing rain and then a deep freeze. Everything was a block of ice. It took 10 times as longer to shovel it, basically hitting it with an axe. You could actually stand on top of the snow without sinking into it. 

[TSSN+]

Euro temps after this storm are hilarious. Lows in the negatives and wind chills down to -25 

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Yes, rather disappointed, but it fits climo. Still hope we get a few inches in

Gotta ride with the GFS and the AIs for now. 

I wouldn't expect the track to adjust back southward in future runs. North trends at close range seem to occur more often.

[H2O]

For a little historical reference, Jan 94 had a sleet bomb storm that cemented all week thanks to ridiculously cold temps after.