January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Interstate]

Just now, paulythegun said:

Why are you posting Tuesday runs?

[baltosquid]

GFS disseminating quickly today thank goodness. I like it at hr30 but I won’t put my foot in my mouth when I’m sure proper pbp is ready to go

[Ji]

Why are you posting Tuesday runs?

Oh geez

[stormtracker]

Early on, GFS has slightly MORE separation than 6z, but other models looked that way early on only to phase in amp'd

[LeesburgWx]

10 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

12z ICON

Meh, where are the 15" totals?

[MN Transplant]

While we are waiting for the GFS, here is a nice visualization of the 06z GEFS members for IAD.

 

https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/plumes/

[baltosquid]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Early on, GFS has slightly less separation than 6z, but other models looked that way early on only to phase in amp'd

You mean more separation? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

ICON had way more of a dry slot sig than any other guidance imo. 

[stormtracker]

Ok, it's so far the baja sw is bit west of 6z and a little less interaction so far...could be just slower or GFS doing GFS things

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

You mean more separation? 

Yes.  I meant interaction actually.    But one in the same.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Ok, it's so far the baja sw is bit west of 6z and a little less interaction so far...could be just slower or GFS doing GFS things

Ai gfs similar wrt less Interaction and/or slower to move out

[North Balti Zen]

Please, people, let Randy do the pbp and let the model run to the end of this current possible event before jumping to conclusions. He will give everyone the good picture and then folks can resume worrying/weenie'ing. 

[paulythegun]

7 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Why are you posting Tuesday runs?

i deleted it almost immediately, you're quick!

[stormtracker]

ok, 63, it's noticeably more southwest of it's 6z position.  Lets see what that means (if anything) down the line

[RickinBaltimore]

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Please, people, let Randy do the pbp and let the model run to the end of this current possible event before jumping to conclusions. He will give everyone the good picture and then folks can resume worrying/weenie'ing. 

FOLKS? Did you say Folks?

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ai gfs similar wrt less Interaction and/or slower to move out

 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Ai is souther an asshair, tucked, and appears to be a beat down fwiw

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

Ends up more amped anyway. 

[SMikh]

[Ralph Wiggum]

DC/ BWI pummeled on the Allen iverson

[stormtracker]

It's coming out obviously, but it's south of the 6z position  and a bit more detached/ less interactive appearance  

Next panel, it definitely further south and dug more and still closed off.  6z was opened up and further northeast

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's coming out obviously, but it's south of the 6z position  and a bit more detached/ less interactive appearance  

Next panel, it definitely further south and dug more and still closed off.  6z was opened up and further northeast

It’s digging more and the whole h5 is shifted west. Think will amp but will amp on the good way with near what ai has .

[stormtracker]

Opens back up at 84...and still moving out...so nothing crazy  like getting stuck down there...just is a bit south of where it was at 6z

[87storms]

Jet dynamics are mostly carbon copy of 6z. This is gonna be a wrecking.

[JenkinsJinkies]

10 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Meh, where are the 15" totals?

This is what happens when you board the hype train too early.

[Pityflakes]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's coming out obviously, but it's south of the 6z position  and a bit more detached/ less interactive appearance  

Next panel, it definitely further south and dug more and still closed off.  6z was opened up and further northeast

Hopefully will result in a pausing of the north/amped "trend"

[WVsnowlover]

10 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Meh, where are the 15" totals?

That's what the kuchera maps are for...

[Ralph Wiggum]

0z will be telling with the dropsonde pac data being ingested into the models. 

[stormtracker]

So far...GFS looks like it's going to be a hold