January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

@stormtracker No double maps either.

Hush, "heavy" when its .01 over us.  Let me do this

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

For those of us who aren't good at reading these maps...a few words of explanation would be appreciated 

[stormtracker]

It's definitely going to be more amp'd.

[bncho]

Stop reacting with sad. It's not necessarily a bad thing for the Euro to do this. It had leeway.

[Weather Will]

WB Canadian 0Z ensemble

[stormtracker]

It's GGEM like.  We got sleet problems.  It;'s a ton of QPF tho

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, bncho said:

Stop reacting with sad. It's not necessarily a bad thing for the Euro to do this. It had leeway.

It's the trend that could be the issue.

[wxmeddler]

I'm only through H72 but the cut-off is faster ejecting and the s/w is more amped. This is a more amped solution

[bncho]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB Canadian 0Z ensembke

Thank the Lord it didn't shift north.

[stormtracker]

[bncho]

...And all our leeway is gone. Guess I'll be measuring sleet with my yardstick!

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Stop reacting with sad. It's not necessarily a bad thing for the Euro to do this. It had leeway.

You sure about that?

[stormtracker]

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Holy qpf

[wxmeddler]

This is why I don't trust Cut-Offs

Edit: At D5... in a data-sparse region...

[Alfoman]

I'd call that a trend 

[mitchnick]

Precip bomb

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's the trend that could be the issue.

The new data from the balloons tomorrow night will either stop the bleeding and reverse the trend, or....

[stormtracker]

[Another Field]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

...And all our leeway is gone. Guess I'll be measuring sleet with my yardstick!

Dude, you are super annoying

[bncho]

Now hold up... what's the thump? That looks like a HEAVY front end thump 

[Alfoman]

Just some small differences I'd say...

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's GGEM like.  We got sleet problems.  It;'s a ton of QPF tho

So all the models went north and amped...I don't even wanna know what they're gonna look like by 12z tomorrow.

I don't mind sleet mixed in at the end. But what I am afraid of seeing is this becoming mostly sleet or worse.

[EHoffman]

DC has a major snow without getting pounded by sleet challenge level: impossible

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Another Field said:

Dude, you are super annoying

He's a kid.

[nw baltimore wx]

At least we can kill the drought thread.

[stormtracker]

So, now we see what @H2O was worried about.   

So let's get it in our heads now that this is where we're at and get acquainted and adjust.  We gonna get our usual buffet if this locks in.  But the good thing is...we got time

[ravensrule]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

At least we can kill the drought thread.

We will be fine, don’t sweat it. 

[nj2va]

Looks like DC flips to sleet Sunday late morning/early afternoon with a warm nose at 700. But my goodness, what a thump before that. 1.2” or so of QPF in DC before that.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

So, now we see what @H2O was worried about.   

So let's get it in our heads now that this is where we're at and get acquainted and adjust.  We gonna get our usual buffet if this locks in.  But the good thing is...we got time

It may mix, but will get wrecked before that