January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[mitchnick]

Not to steal StormyClearWeather's pet, but the 18z Ukie ensembles are acceptable to most in the forum.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Not to steal StormyClearWeather's pet, but the 18z Ukie ensembles are acceptable to most in the forum.

They are as they slowly march steadily ever so slightly slowly NE.  Nothing suppressed about those unless you’re in NH.  3 days out.  

[jayyy]

Ukie ensemble mean is tasty

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[WxUSAF]

I would think this probably wouldn’t be ingested for 0z. Probably 6z?

 

[Eskimo Joe]

14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Snowfall thresholds for select cities:

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Paging @Bob Chill

 

 

[wxmvpete]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I would think this probably wouldn’t be ingested for 0z. Probably 6z?

 

I think it is just simply flying to its destination tonight. Maybe it will collect "some" data, but we requested recon into that feature (plus into the Gulf and Atlantic) for the next few days. We know the current plan is to do a sampling mission starting tomorrow at 00Z.

[Terpeast]

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I would think this probably wouldn’t be ingested for 0z. Probably 6z?

 

This would be the thing that causes that 4 day reshuffle. May it fall in our favor. 

[Nomz]

Anything look off? Trying to keep expectations tempered while still allowing for the possibility of the real monster, a la UKMET or 18z euro. The quality got cucked by the forum image compression I think.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, wxmvpete said:

I think it is just simply flying to its destination tonight. Maybe it will collect "some" data, but we requested recon into that feature (plus into the Gulf and Atlantic) for the next few days. We know the current plan is to do a sampling mission starting tomorrow at 00Z.

If I understood the brief correctly, 00z 1/22 runs would be the first to ingest that data?

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Anything look off? Trying to keep expectations tempered while still allowing for the possibility of the real monster, a la UKMET or 18z euro. The quality got cucked by the forum image compression I think.

Standard message: for anyone making a briefing package I strongly recommend including a "Created on: [insert date/time here]" and "Do not use for decision making after [insert date/time here". That way people know how stale the information is.

[wxmvpete]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If I understood the brief correctly, 00z 1/22 runs would be the first to ingest that data?

That is correct

[JakkelWx]

After the storm, the GFS is at or below freezing nearly every day for the rest of the run

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z HRRR at 48 hours

[weathercoins]

20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

That Boston stat is wild.  No six inch snows in four years?! 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

After the storm, the GFS is at or below freezing nearly every day for the rest of the run

From a climatology/historical perspective, that's insane.

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This would be the thing that causes that 4 day reshuffle. May it fall in our favor. 

Reshuffle...nah we can keep the deck just the way it is That sounds foreboding-- like that new data getting ingested and we suddenly get skunked at 12z or something, lol I know that has a lower liklihood, but I don't wonder if "huge jumps" like that are still on the table.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

From a climatology/historical perspective, that's insane.

Like seriously...how often do you see that??

[Nomz]

7 minutes ago, weathercoins said:

That Boston stat is wild.  No six inch snows in four years?! 

Believe me, its real

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z HRRR at 48 hours

Bruh that thing can't even get 48 seconds right!

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Bruh that thing can't even get 48 seconds right!

Well it's cousin 12K NAM is hot on its heels.

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, weathercoins said:

That Boston stat is wild.  No six inch snows in four years?! 

They wanted 2015, they got it! But forgot the price...winters in the Mid Atlantic.  Lol

[bncho]

The Weather Channel has named this storm. 

It's called Winter Storm Fern.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

The Weather Channel has named this storm. 

It's called Winter Storm Fern.

And I've named them: TWC The Weather Crap

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Bruh that thing can't even get 48 seconds right!

We don't talk bad about the NAM when it shows something we want

[CAPE]

Time to check the latest Natty Blend.. holy fuck..just keeps getting better

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Reshuffle...nah we can keep the deck just the way it is That sounds foreboding-- like that new data getting ingested and we suddenly get skunked at 12z or something, lol I know that has a lower liklihood, but I don't wonder if "huge jumps" like that are still on the table.

I don’t want too much to change either. But if I had to guess, final track will be shifted about 100 miles north of what the entire model average is now. Maybe 150. Might put our forum in the jack, and maybe even flirt with mixing across the southern half.

I’ve seen so many big ones shift north like this. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Time to check the latest Natty Blend.. holy fuck..just keeps getting better

Actually about the same lol. Still good! I need another bourbon.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I don’t want too much to change either. But if I had to guess, final track will be shifted about 100 miles north of what the entire model average is now. Maybe 150. Might put our forum in the jack, and maybe even flirt with mixing across the southern half.

I’ve seen so many big ones shift north like this. 

No, no lets not reshuffle like that. Genuine question is where do you see the north shift coming from? Synoptically I have a hard time seeing how much further it can go north with a solution like the 18z Euro as it has a perfect phase.