mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Not to steal StormyClearWeather's pet, but the 18z Ukie ensembles are acceptable to most in the forum. 18 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Not to steal StormyClearWeather's pet, but the 18z Ukie ensembles are acceptable to most in the forum. They are as they slowly march steadily ever so slightly slowly NE. Nothing suppressed about those unless you’re in NH. 3 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Ukie ensemble mean is tasty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I would think this probably wouldn’t be ingested for 0z. Probably 6z? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Snowfall thresholds for select cities: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Paging @Bob Chill 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I would think this probably wouldn’t be ingested for 0z. Probably 6z? I think it is just simply flying to its destination tonight. Maybe it will collect "some" data, but we requested recon into that feature (plus into the Gulf and Atlantic) for the next few days. We know the current plan is to do a sampling mission starting tomorrow at 00Z. 13 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I would think this probably wouldn’t be ingested for 0z. Probably 6z? This would be the thing that causes that 4 day reshuffle. May it fall in our favor. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Anything look off? Trying to keep expectations tempered while still allowing for the possibility of the real monster, a la UKMET or 18z euro. The quality got cucked by the forum image compression I think. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, wxmvpete said: I think it is just simply flying to its destination tonight. Maybe it will collect "some" data, but we requested recon into that feature (plus into the Gulf and Atlantic) for the next few days. We know the current plan is to do a sampling mission starting tomorrow at 00Z. If I understood the brief correctly, 00z 1/22 runs would be the first to ingest that data? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Nomz said: Anything look off? Trying to keep expectations tempered while still allowing for the possibility of the real monster, a la UKMET or 18z euro. The quality got cucked by the forum image compression I think. Standard message: for anyone making a briefing package I strongly recommend including a "Created on: [insert date/time here]" and "Do not use for decision making after [insert date/time here". That way people know how stale the information is. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: If I understood the brief correctly, 00z 1/22 runs would be the first to ingest that data? That is correct 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 After the storm, the GFS is at or below freezing nearly every day for the rest of the run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 WB 0Z HRRR at 48 hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That Boston stat is wild. No six inch snows in four years?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: After the storm, the GFS is at or below freezing nearly every day for the rest of the run From a climatology/historical perspective, that's insane. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 10 minutes ago, Terpeast said: This would be the thing that causes that 4 day reshuffle. May it fall in our favor. Reshuffle...nah we can keep the deck just the way it is That sounds foreboding-- like that new data getting ingested and we suddenly get skunked at 12z or something, lol I know that has a lower liklihood, but I don't wonder if "huge jumps" like that are still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: From a climatology/historical perspective, that's insane. Like seriously...how often do you see that?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 minutes ago, weathercoins said: That Boston stat is wild. No six inch snows in four years?! Believe me, its real 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z HRRR at 48 hours Bruh that thing can't even get 48 seconds right! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Bruh that thing can't even get 48 seconds right! Well it's cousin 12K NAM is hot on its heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 10 minutes ago, weathercoins said: That Boston stat is wild. No six inch snows in four years?! They wanted 2015, they got it! But forgot the price...winters in the Mid Atlantic. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 The Weather Channel has named this storm. It's called Winter Storm Fern. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, bncho said: The Weather Channel has named this storm. It's called Winter Storm Fern. And I've named them: TWC The Weather Crap 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Bruh that thing can't even get 48 seconds right! We don't talk bad about the NAM when it shows something we want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Time to check the latest Natty Blend.. holy fuck..just keeps getting better 16 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Reshuffle...nah we can keep the deck just the way it is That sounds foreboding-- like that new data getting ingested and we suddenly get skunked at 12z or something, lol I know that has a lower liklihood, but I don't wonder if "huge jumps" like that are still on the table. I don’t want too much to change either. But if I had to guess, final track will be shifted about 100 miles north of what the entire model average is now. Maybe 150. Might put our forum in the jack, and maybe even flirt with mixing across the southern half. I’ve seen so many big ones shift north like this. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Time to check the latest Natty Blend.. holy fuck..just keeps getting better Actually about the same lol. Still good! I need another bourbon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: I don’t want too much to change either. But if I had to guess, final track will be shifted about 100 miles north of what the entire model average is now. Maybe 150. Might put our forum in the jack, and maybe even flirt with mixing across the southern half. I’ve seen so many big ones shift north like this. No, no lets not reshuffle like that. Genuine question is where do you see the north shift coming from? Synoptically I have a hard time seeing how much further it can go north with a solution like the 18z Euro as it has a perfect phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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