January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[Brick Tamland]

18 minutes ago, wake4est said:

RAH Issues Winter Storm Warning for rest of central NC

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation of largely sleet and freezing
  rain expected. Total ice accumulations between three tenths and
  three quarters of an inch. Total sleet and snow accumulations up
  to two inches.

* WHERE...For much of the Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain of
  central North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Significant ice accumulation on power lines and tree
  limbs may cause widespread and long-lasting power outages. Travel
  could be treacherous. The hazardous conditions could impact the
  Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter
storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains,
booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing.
Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help
you survive in case you become stranded.

Hope that means we'll miss the worst of the ice. 

[wake4est]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Hope that means we'll miss the worst of the ice. 

I think they did the WSW instead of an ISW because of the presence of snow and sleet at onset.

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, wake4est said:

I think they did the WSW instead of an ISW because of the presence of snow and sleet at onset.

That is what I am hoping will save us. 

[wake4est]

10 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

That is what I am hoping will save us. 

No, I believe it is ISW criteria PLUS the presence of snow and sleet that upgrades that to a WSW. I could be wrong tho.

[sakau2007]

can we start a thread for next week's storm? those of us in Alabama have moved on 

 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

8 minutes ago, sakau2007 said:

can we start a thread for next week's storm? those of us in Alabama have moved on 

 

Yes, the middle to long term discussion thread. 

[Buddy1987]

35 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Im tired bro. This is a fun but exhausting hobby.

 

You ain't kidding man. I literally passed out on the couch last night and it was only like 9:20. Early for me.

[BornAgain13]

Just got the okay that ill be off work Sunday and no mandatory call ins...Thankfully ill get to be with the wife and kids in case our power goes out. 

[WXNewton]

10 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

You ain't kidding man. I literally passed out on the couch last night and it was only like 9:20. Early for me.

I haven't been this exhausted since the Christmas Day storm! Best sleep of my life after it was over.

[BooneWX]

Wagons south?


.

[NorthHillsWx]

Looking closer at the 12z CAMs even though a lot of moisture was going north, you can see the showers that develop in the dry slot and I think that’s what some here have been picking up on- if you’re in the wedge even though you might get the dry slot it likely doesn’t stop precipitating. Happens all the time with warm season wedges, supposed to be 70 but stuck at 50 and drizzle, light rain. Not convinced the moisture goes north of us but if it does it doesn’t mean it stops the precip 

[stormwatcherJ]

Man it's become quiet in here... have we all settled on a solution more than 24 hours out?? Things could still change.

[kvegas-wx]

1 minute ago, stormwatcherJ said:

Man it's become quiet in here... have we all settled on a solution more than 24 hours out?? Things could still change.

I'm not sure anyone cares anymore.  I don't even recall tracking Katrina this long.  It is what it is.  We're too busy being suckered into next weeks blizzard.

[BornAgain13]

18z HRRR would be great in southern VA 2-4" before the switchover.

[BooneWX]

The hrrr looks wetter on its surface depiction but haven’t finished the run to confirm.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

I'm not sure anyone cares anymore.  I don't even recall tracking Katrina this long.  It is what it is.  We're too busy being suckered into next weeks blizzard.

We need to pace ourselves. Next week could be even more bonkers and exhausting 

[Jimbo!]

We need to pace ourselves. Next week could be even more bonkers and exhausting 

That would give me something to do after surgery


.

[CentralNC]

GSP disco is out.  Man, they are really struggling with this one

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

[BooneWX]

NAM is correcting south lol. These models!

[tarheelwx]

Pretty clear move south in better alignment with most other models. 

TW

[Huriken]

30 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z HRRR would be great in southern VA 2-4" before the switchover.

The HRRR is now my favorite model

[HKY_WX]

35 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

The hrrr looks wetter on its surface depiction but haven’t finished the run to confirm.

Yeah, QPF is not going to be an issue with this system in NC. The only area that will get dry slotted is the coastline counties. Most of the state will get 1.5 to 2inches of QPF easily.

[suzook]

1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

You ain't kidding man. I literally passed out on the couch last night and it was only like 9:20. Early for me.

Bunch of amateurs you are! I used to live in the North...Now that's constant back and forth and stress November through March. I don't miss it.

[suzook]

1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

Yeah, QPF is not going to be an issue with this system. The only area that will get dry slotted is the coastline counties. Most of the state will get 1.5 to 2inches of QPF easily.

I bet 30 to 40 miles south of ATL doesn't top a half inch of precip. Its what happens here the last 8mos.

[suzook]

28 minutes ago, Jimbo! said:

That would give me something to do after surgery


.

BTW, Good luck with your surgery, hope it goes well!

[sakau2007]

NAM definitely trending a stronger wedge deeper south and west into Georgia... but also trending a little warmer for northern Mississippi. surface thermals could definitely be a fail mode across most of MS now too.