January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[olafminesaw]

Just now, wake4est said:

New hotness just dropped from NWS. Through Sunday morning on these.

What in the heck is that mess? I think the red and orange should be flipped?

[benjammin]

It looks like they're going with more of a GFS solution.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[Spidyr2k]

In case anyone else was wondering.

Flat vs. Radial Ice

• Flat Ice: Accumulates on flat, elevated surfaces (e.g., car hoods, decks).
• Radial Ice: Forms on round objects (e.g., branches, power lines).
• Key Difference: Radial ice is typically about 40% less thick than flat ice from the same event because it spreads over a larger surface area as it builds. 

[DTP]

5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It’s interesting that the Euro used to have a bias of burying Baja lows, hanging them back to the southwest too long.

Wonder if they over corrected the physics to remove this bias.


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Could very well be the case- or tried to correct upon multiple variables at once (shotgunning).  Or corrected for another completely separate dynamic that typically does not influence output, but did in this specific case, or the solar storm (plausible, hardware, communications and electronics in general do not respond well to magnetic waves)

 

Or could be sniffing out something extremely early

I would take any of what you see on the models with a grain of salt until metadata is derived from the low and actual surface reports- much cleaner picture 

[BooneWX]

For those saying this low cant plow into the high, you’re right, but that’s not what the euro was showing. The 50/50 low is moving out of position, which means blocking is falling apart, and your HP has an easy escape route north. 

[BooneWX]

With all of that said, the run to run changes in the upper levels on the euro are rather mind boggling, not discounting it, but saying it’s dialed in would be a lie as well.

[greendave]

7 minutes ago, wake4est said:

New hotness just dropped from NWS. Through Sunday morning on these.

has this been validated? Their FB last post is the 4pm briefing....something smells fishy...

[Orange county]

Lots of weird double posting from this software tonight?

[knowledgeispwr]

3 minutes ago, greendave said:

has this been validated? Their FB last post is the 4pm briefing....something smells fishy...

Remember that the image contains the forecasts from various forecast offices, not just one, hence weirdness around the boundaries of County Warning Areas (CWAs).

[Isopycnic]

I’m looking forward to my 3-4” of sleet and 1/2” of flat ice. 

[Snowncanes]

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

With all of that said, the run to run changes in the upper levels on the euro are rather mind boggling, not discounting it, but saying it’s dialed in would be a lie as well.

Completely agree. Check out the 500 vort map of the last 8 euro runs. Crazy inconsistent up there.
 https://x.com/contentwxguy/status/2014137831522742310?s=46

[Orange county]

2 minutes ago, Isopycnic said:

I’m looking forward to my 3-4” of sleet and 1/2” of flat ice. 

I like drippy ice lol

[wncsnow]

Look familiar? I think this is my favorite analog to this storm not Dec 2002. 

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Look familiar? I think this is my favorite analog to this storm not Dec 2002. 

February 94 as well.

[olafminesaw]

the Euro has little to no snowfall with a sounding like this leading up to the storm and blocking

[DTP]

16 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

For those saying this low cant plow into the high, you’re right, but that’s not what the euro was showing. The 50/50 low is moving out of position, which means blocking is falling apart, and your HP has an easy escape route north. 

Ahh- I see....and yes, that would change pretty much everything at this point...early phasing would act as the kicker on the 50/50 and make it more progressive, correct?  Some of the ensembles were showing this, but then I saw some others that had some genuinely bizarre solutions 

 

I still am skeptical of this without seeing more of the metadata being fed in- many of the other ensembles were all over the place with no coherent line of best fit

[Brick Tamland]

I don't think the GFS has had as many wild swings as the Euro has the last two days. 

[PackGrad05]

that NWS RAH graphic is from their automated site here:  https://www.weather.gov/rah/nc#snow

I would be cautious using that....

[stormwatcherJ]

Well at this point as I look across various media sources, weather apps, and maps posted here, I have seen anywhere from 0-6 inches of snow and 0-6 inches of ice for my area. So I’m very confident in my forecast. 

[olafminesaw]

19 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I don't think the GFS has had as many wild swings as the Euro has the last two days. 

Eh. I wouldn't give the GFS too much credit given how much it folded to the Euro (gradually), while the Euro hasn't taken any meaningful steps back to the South (yet)

[Buddy1987]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Based on what one of the Gentlemen said that was on the dropsonde flight the 0z GFS and Euro will immediately have the data readily available to go tonight. There was no mention of any other models. 
 

I highlight this because I’m curious how NAM behaves. Can see the Baja energy is somewhat delayed and the n/s energy is already kicked east some early on. 

 

[olafminesaw]

Yeah that does look like a meaningful improvement 

[Phelps]

25 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

that NWS RAH graphic is from their automated site here:  https://www.weather.gov/rah/nc#snow

I would be cautious using that....

Yeah I don’t think any humans would be forecasting 8-12 for Boone right now. Not saying it’s impossible, but certainly doesn’t appear to be the most likely outcome as of now.  

[Coach McGuirk]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2026012118&fh=120

[Buddy1987]

12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Yeah that does look like a meaningful improvement 

Baja low at 30 looks like it wants to get comfy and bury itself out there. 50/50 maybe slightly better?

[Brick Tamland]

15 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Eh. I wouldn't give the GFS too much credit given how much it folded to the Euro (gradually), while the Euro hasn't taken any meaningful steps back to the South (yet)

Just saying the huge jump by the Euro from yesterday morning to this morning is pretty ridiculous. 

[BooneWX]

Yea that’s quite an improvement from the NAM 

[BMulkey]

2 minutes ago, Phelps said:

Yeah I don’t think any humans would be forecasting 8-12 for Boone right now. Not saying it’s impossible, but certainly doesn’t appear to be the most likely outcome as of now.  

Blacksburg posted in their discussion at 1:30 this afternoon that there was 30-40% chance of 10"+ snow for their NC counties.

[SouthWake33]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2026012118&fh=120

I’d take 1/4 of that and be happy.


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