January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[Jimbo!]

Its all your fault...

Step into the freezer


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[Jimbo!]

Winter storm watch for Danville


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[wake4est]

WSWatch from RAH

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Confidence is
  increasing in widespread snow, sleet, and freezing rain. This may
  result in moderate to major impacts in infrastructure and
  transportation.

* WHERE...The Piedmont and portions of the central and northern
  Coastal Plain.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Significant ice accumulation on
  power lines and tree limbs may cause widespread and long-lasting
  power outages.

[wncsnow]

Euro AI is slightly worse but not majorly

[BooneWX]

Euro OP with small improvements. Less interaction with that northern energy as the Baja blast slips sw.

[tarheelwx]

Maybe this has already been said, but just in case.......  This starts in NC as an overrunning event that transitions to a miller B (most likely).  In many overrunning events, precip arrives/breaks out a bit ahead of schedule.  Don't be surprised to see the precip arrive Saturday morning  vs. afternoon.  I could surely see it come in 6-9 hours ahead of schedule. 

TW

[Thrasher Fan]

Euro has taken a dump. As in not running correctly.

[Brick Tamland]

[CaryWx]

29 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Unfortunately I'm headed to dog training so can't do a pbp

Sit Burger Sit!

[Snowncanes]

Euro with a little less interaction at H60

[SnowDawg]

All three key pieces incrementally improved on the Euro, so I'd expect the result to be slightly improved. We need this to be the start of a trend that baby steps right up til go time. 

[RaleighNC]

WRAL calling for only 13% chance of snow in Raleigh. Saying it's an ice storm on their models.

[stormwatcherJ]

Just now, RaleighNC said:

WRAL calling for only 13% chance of snow in Raleigh. Saying it's an ice storm on their models.

That would be a ton of ice... or are they changing to rain?

[RaleighNC]

Just now, stormwatcherJ said:

That would be a ton of ice... or are they changing to rain?

Not ready to say how much of what. Waiting for high definition models.  "Wintry mix"

[stormwatcherJ]

Just now, RaleighNC said:

Not ready to say how much of what. Waiting for high definition models.  "Wintry mix"

LOL... not willing to say how much of what, but willing to say "13%."

[wake4est]

Euro Has almost no snow in NC. Even more, is has almost no sleet.  It does have 1.5" of zr from the Triangle to VA.

[Brick Tamland]

[Justicebork]

LOL... not willing to say how much of what, but willing to say "13%."

It’s easier to estimate the likelihood of a warm nose than to project its depth and placement over time


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[RaleighNC]

I have grown to detest the words "warm air aloft"

[lilj4425]

Just now, RaleighNC said:

I have grown to detest the words "warm air aloft"

That and less qpf due to thunderstorms along the gulf coast that robs us of moisture. Neither one ever fails.

[mwp1023]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Give me cold rain at this point and keep going north 

I don't want that much ice!!!

[buckeyefan1]

Bless its icy heart  

 

[Blacksburg Coach]

The soundings are predicting mostly sleet for a large portion of NC.

[btownheel]

Think that one is a toss. Even its AI doesn’t agree at all with the CAD scouring out like that.


Still a trench war and likely will be until Friday. All about how that Baja low interacts.


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[Blacksburg Coach]

Spoke to soon, Transitions at 102 hr

 

[Blacksburg Coach]

Just now, Blacksburg Coach said:

Spoke to soon, Transitions at 102 hr

 

I took this from right around Greensboro

[PackGrad05]

Ever since Fishel left, WRAL loves posting the probability of snow directly from the EPS. They call the European ensemble an exclusive product they have.


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[Snowncanes]

Maybe im just being stubborn but to my untrained eye the euro trended slightly better with the Baja low and northern stream but still delivered the same result. Maybe someone more experienced could enlighten. I just find it hard to believe a HP that strong with some decent blocking retrogrades that quick with a low thats not all that strong.

[Blacksburg Coach]

And the FRAM est.

 

[SnowDawg]

No recon data impacts in the models til tomorrow at the earliest. First data collecting flight is tonight.