January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[eyewall]

Seeing the overnight runs I am ready to head to the cliff. What an absolute disaster in terms of the changes. To see our shot at a big one vaporize is hard. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

36 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Short answer- yes. Strength of HP does not mean it cannot get caught up in the flow and be transient. This is a huge common misconception that strong HP areas just can’t be moved, if there isn’t blocking, they will just keep on going. That being said, in this case we do have blocking. What we’ve seen shift is orientation. As the trough tends to dig further west, it is pulling our HP further north and opening up an escape path for our low to ride up the coast, in this case a miller B. Also while our HP is strong, the low has been trending stronger as well meaning it isn’t simply going to slide under the high. The high remains in an optimal spot for CAD areas so low level cold very likely will be there in the CAD favored regions throughout the storm but our storm system is likely still going to trend north as well as long as the trough keeps moving west. If I had to make a call now I’d say ATL has ice to rain, upstate has sleet to ice, SC midlands stay mostly ice, triad/foothills mostly sleet, triangle sleet to ice and coastal plain sleet to ice to rain. Snow will likely be limited to border counties and relatively brief. Think max snowfall might actually be in DC area up into Pennsylvania. Virginia likely gets thumped but I think with the coastal and miller b that warm nose changes the southern half over to sleet and eastern Virginia might actually be dancing with cold rain (Va beach, eastern shore). 

This is gold-star, Academy education here. Thank you.

[olafminesaw]

11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We’re 3 days out so my initial forecast calls:

Triangle- <1” SN, 2-3” IP, 25-.30” ZR

Triad- 1” SN, 3-4” IP, .10-.25 ZR

Foothills- 1-3” SN, 4-5” IP, TR-0.10” ZR

Charlotte- TR-1/2” SN, 2-3” IP, .25-.30” ZR

Upstate- TR SN, 2-3” IP, .25-.40” ZR

ATL- TR-1/2” IP, 0.25-0.40” ZR (cold rain to finish) 

NC coastal plain- TR-1/2” SN, TR-2” IP, .25-.75” ZR Could see some isolated heavier amounts to 1” ZR if temps stay in 20’s). Switches to rain at coast and inland by a county or two limiting accumulation in those areas.

SC low country-Midlands-NC Sandhills- TR-2” IP (more north and west), .25-1” ZR possibly a few higher totals in Sandhills to NW of Columbia. Switches to rain after light icing along the coast.
 

Think worst ice runs from Greenville NC to Fayetteville to newberry SC to Greenwood SC and a county on either side of that line as first guess. Could extend further into GA as well especially Athens to Gainesville 

Praying a lot in NC and upstate get a sleet bomb 

Totally agree. I do think there is an upside with more moisture early on Saturday from overrunning where the triangle/triad could over perform. 

[NorthHillsWx]

7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Seeing the overnight runs I am ready to head to the cliff. What an absolute disaster in terms of the changes. To see our shot at a big one vaporize is hard. 

It was writing on the wall as soon as ensembles showed max snow north of here. I don’t care if it shows me with 10” if north of Richmond has double that it means we are mixing and that 10” will become 1”. Just a lifetime of watching storms here. I never bit on this being a snowstorm for us but I did think I-85 and north was in a good spot. Now I’m confident you’ll need to go north or Richmond for the best snows, though I think places in southern Virginia get the thump we thought we’d get yesterday 

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It was writing on the wall as soon as ensembles showed max snow north of here. I don’t care if it shows me with 10” if north of Richmond has double that it means we are mixing and that 10” will become 1”. Just a lifetime of watching storms here. I never bit on this being a snowstorm for us but I did think I-85 and north was in a good spot. Now I’m confident you’ll need to go north or Richmond for the best snows, though I think places in southern Virginia get the thump we thought we’d get yesterday 

Yep and I can't chase this one due to work as we have to stay on for our clients with major events. None the less I guess I will get drone shots of sleet taking down gutters instead of deep snow lol. Honestly for shots, freezing rain is the next best to snow. 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Yep and I can't chase this one due to work as we have to stay on for our clients with major events. None the less I guess I will get drone shots of sleet taking down gutters instead of deep snow lol. Honestly for shots, freezing rain is the next best to snow. 

I’d be shocked if we missed out on a major sleet-ice storm. It’s hard to imagine a 1040+ sitting north of us and us even approaching freezing. Gives me some hope CAD will trend stronger as we get closer (per usual) and we can get sleet instead of ZR as predominant p type. Yesterday I was pretty confident in that happening but now I’m wavering. Just hope the ice storm like big ice totals are south and east of here but it’s gonna be close now. 

[digital snow]

My forecast looks good. I am hoping the cold over performs and we see souther trends today. Not being a deb, but the big ones here almost always play out the same. For pure snow we need the S slider look the GFS was throwing out until yesterday. Phase= ip and zr for NC

Analog is 5-7 days out maps show huge snow totals and it looks like we are going to get smoked

4-5 days out the N trends start and NC weenies start to head for the cliff

2-3 days out we are hanging on to snow totals by a thread as it becomes clear that warm air is going to overwhelm the mid layers and congrats DC

I know I have said this before, but 2016 is a good analog, only we have better forecasting tools. GSO was forecasted to get 12-18 in snow. The clown maps held until the night before the storm. It snowed for 5 minutes before it switched and sleeted heavily for over 24 hours. We had 4-5 in of sleet in 2016 there. There were 30 in snow totals in DC burbs

I still have a good feeling that we will get a high impact winter storm here in central NC

[eyewall]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’d be shocked if we missed out on a major sleet-ice storm. It’s hard to imagine a 1040+ sitting north of us and us even approaching freezing. Gives me some hope CAD will trend stronger as we get closer (per usual) and we can get sleet instead of ZR as predominant p type. Yesterday I was pretty confident in that happening but now I’m wavering. Just hope the ice storm like big ice totals are south and east of here but it’s gonna be close now. 

Yeah none of this is good either way. Might as well give us some drought busting rain and the warm sector instead lol. 

[olafminesaw]

6z Euro is largely the same, maybe a touch south overall. The bleeding stops now, we can only hope

[WestCentrlVA]

Is the info ingested from reconnaissance shared with other met offices and European model centers? Just wondering why there's such a discrepancy between the euro and gfs. 6z euro is not making friends even here in Virginia. 

[NorthHillsWx]

6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yeah none of this is good either way. Might as well give us some drought busting rain and the warm sector instead lol. 

Our ZR should melt slowly next week so there won’t be any wasted runoff for drought relief, lol

[Silver Meteor]

6 minutes ago, WestCentrlVA said:

Is the info ingested from reconnaissance shared with other met offices and European model centers? Just wondering why there's such a discrepancy between the euro and gfs. 6z euro is not making friends even here in Virginia. 

From what I've read the recon data shows up on tonight's 00Z runs. As for the euro I've no idea. 

[andrew29649]

38 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

 …..

Think worst ice runs from Greenville NC to Fayetteville to newberry SC to Greenwood SC and a county on either side of that line as first guess. Could extend further into GA as well especially Athens to Gainesville 

Praying a lot in NC and upstate get a sleet bomb 

GWD is MBY 

As I watch the trends this forecast seems inevitable. Need to find an ice storm preparedness checklist now.

[Upstate Tiger]

Overnight trends not good. We’ve gone from January 88 to Presidents Day 2003.  I do think the 06z GFS has a better handle on the thermals than the NAM or Euro at 84 hours.  Still have a 1051 High in NY.  The CADs not being represented well IMO. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, Upstate Tiger said:

Overnight trends not good. We’ve gone from January 88 to Presidents Day 2003.  I do think the 06z GFS has a better handle on the thermals than the NAM or Euro at 84 hours.  Still have a 1051 High in NY.  The CADs not being represented well IMO. 

I agree. We are all forgetting Euro doesn’t handle CAD well at range. That being said, we’re walking the line between ZR and IP now for most. Up until yesterday it was between SN and IP

[NorthHillsWx]

I don’t think the Euro changed much at all at 6z. Maybe the NW shift is over. That’s the first run without a NW shift in over 24 hours

[Upstate Tiger]

Models handled the thermals on the 2003 PD2 terribly.  We were told for 5 days to prepare for an apocalyptic ice storm but had a sleet storm instead.  

[gman]

I don’t understand all the gloom and doom, especially after reading the latest GSP NWS weather discussion. Game still on. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GSP&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

For those of us about to hit 70 years old, we are running out of time and just want to see some white stuff. We are not selfish. It’s been over 1500 days since we have seen over an inch of snow in the Upstate. At this point in my life, I will shout for joy to watch an inch of snow and/or sleet falling. All that said, I am appreciative of the weather discussion. A huge part of the fun is the lead up to the big events, whether they happen or not. You guys make it fun. Thank you. 

[NorthHillsWx]

 

Just now, Upstate Tiger said:

Models handled the thermals on the 2003 PD2 terribly.  We were told for 5 days to prepare for an apocalyptic ice storm but had a sleet storm instead.  

Honestly similarities to this. ZR IS ALWAYS OVER MODELED. That being said I fully expect a swath of a bad ice event here but it will be NOWHERE as widespread as models show and many areas will see more sleet than modeled, given the HP were working with that is a mega cold air source through the event I’d have to think IP ends up predominant p type in upstate and foothills. 

[Regan]

Thoughts?

[PackGrad05]

Even with the robust signal depicted days ago, it is still prudent to remember the 2 to 3 day rule.
Until more data is digested and you get in shorter range, you have to look at overall trends.

The current models are disappointing for sure, but much more in line with climatology than what was depicted days ago. Even the QPF has shifted considerably north.

With that said, they can still shift back and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slight rebound. But a north of 85 system seems to be a good call still.


.

[SouthWake33]

I’ve lurked on these boards dating back to Eastern Wx. I generally don’t have anything scientific to add to the conversation. Having said that, it has proven very common for models to “lose” a storm in the 3-4 day out range only to bring it back. Not saying we (central NC) get a huge snowstorm but I’d be surprised if we don’t have more good model runs before the weekend. Good luck to all!


.

[olafminesaw]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

 

Honestly similarities to this. ZR IS ALWAYS OVER MODELED. That being said I fully expect a swath of a bad ice event here but it will be NOWHERE as widespread as models show and many areas will see more sleet than modeled, given the HP were working with that is a mega cold air source through the event I’d have to think IP ends up predominant p type in upstate and foothills. 

Yep, reposting what I shared yesterday. This low track was 2" snow, 2" sleet and minimal ZR in the triad

[The 4 Seasons]

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

Seeing the overnight runs I am ready to head to the cliff. What an absolute disaster in terms of the changes. To see our shot at a big one vaporize is hard. 

Sorry guys

[BooneWX]

I’ve gotta admit. Michael Clark just etched his name in the respect category. He’s making a lot of really intelligent, seasoned Mets look really really dumb this morning.

[Thrasher Fan]

FFC discussion. 

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Thursday into Friday will
have our first push of rainfall as a quick shortwave pushes through
the main trough over the eastern CONUS. QPF amounts are expected
between 0.5-1" over northern Georgia. the precipitations should
remain in liquid form but some higher elevations of the North GA
mountains may see some mixed precip Fri morning. No accumulations
expected. Fri night into Sat morning will be the beginning of the
main wintery precipitation.

Saturday into Sunday we will begin to see the overall troughing
pattern begin to dive south into the southeastern U.S. while the low
pressure system currently off the Pacific begins to push inland.
This setup creates an atmospheric river from the Mexican Pacific
coast, across the entire southern U.S., and out across to the
Carolinas beginning Fri afternoon. The timing of how this Pacific low
pressure system moves is going to in turn factor into how long we
are expecting potential impacts. Current timing has this system
moving rapidly across the south states through the weekend and up
the eastern seaboard and pulling out of GA Monday morning/early
afternoon.

Some things to talk about with this event. This is shaping up to be
a potentially high impact event with moderate to major impacts. With
this amount of model consistency in the overall setup we are gaining
confidence that this could be a long duration event as well. With
initiation as early as Saturday afternoon and wintry precip looking
to extend into Sunday night/Mon morning. At this point we are
confident that wintry precip will affect north Georgia for areas
along and north of I-20. The area south of I-20 down to Macon and
Columbus are a little more uncertain but models are consistently
forecasting wintry precip for this area as well. A few factors into
how much/what type of wintry precip we receive are the influence of
the wedge expected to take shape and then how far north the front
pushes. When it comes to the wedge, current thinking is that snow
will be the main precip type for far north Georgia and wintry
mix/freezing rain will become the main concern for the remainder of
the north Georgia including the ATL/AHN areas. There is still a
decent shot that we see this freezing rain transition to more of a
snow event as we get into late Sunday and Monday but that is still
uncertainty.

Focusing on the probabilistic information for now.
--> 40-50% chance for 0.5" or greater of ice accumulation through
the weekend for the areas north of I-20.
--> 25-30% chance for 0.75" or greater of ice accumulation through
the weekend for the areas north of I-20.
--> 15-20% chance for 1" or greater of ice accumulation through the
weekend for the areas north of I-20.

--> 30-45% chance for 2" or greater of snow accumulation through the
weekend for the areas north of I-20.

For now the main thing to focus on is being prepared for a
potentially high impact event this weekend. We will likely see more
changes over the coming days but please make sure you have a plan to
endure this event which could include power outages.

Once this system exits the area Monday, a good portion of north GA
will continue to see impacts as Temps Mon are not expected to get to
much above freezing. Any accumulations that linger will most likely
continue through Tue when temps are expected to get up into the
upper 30s to near 40.

[suzook]

So looks like more involved now with sleet and ice?? How's the atl area looking on the latest models? Less ice, more rain??

[NorthHillsWx]

There’s a lot to be ironed out especially with how far west our trough digs. That kind of dictates the outcome here. Also, models will catch the CAD at some point today and you’ll see a trend to slightly colder solutions regardless of storm track. That being said, think best case scenario would be a front end thump and that would likely be limited to NC. Also think we will see, as discussed at length, a smaller ZR footprint in terms of heavy accumulation and more sleet, that’s just how the weather works in CAD miller Bs. Will be interesting to see if any souther correction happens though I doubt we see much change that way. More of a leveling off is what I expect. Something between euro and GFS

[Buddy1987]

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

There’s a lot to be ironed out especially with how far west our trough digs. That kind of dictates the outcome here. Also, models will catch the CAD at some point today and you’ll see a trend to slightly colder solutions regardless of storm track. That being said, think best case scenario would be a front end thump and that would likely be limited to NC. Also think we will see, as discussed at length, a smaller ZR footprint in terms of heavy accumulation and more sleet, that’s just how the weather works in CAD miller Bs. Will be interesting to see if any souther correction happens though I doubt we see much change that way. More of a leveling off is what I expect. Something between euro and GFS

I’ve been reading the trend throughout the year is to deamplify as we lead into the event. Feel like that would help a ton of us tremendously. Only caveat here is how an STJ plays into that. Not sure we’ve had that hand in awhile dealt to the table. 

[Brick Tamland]

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

There’s a lot to be ironed out especially with how far west our trough digs. That kind of dictates the outcome here. Also, models will catch the CAD at some point today and you’ll see a trend to slightly colder solutions regardless of storm track. That being said, think best case scenario would be a front end thump and that would likely be limited to NC. Also think we will see, as discussed at length, a smaller ZR footprint in terms of heavy accumulation and more sleet, that’s just how the weather works in CAD miller Bs. Will be interesting to see if any souther correction happens though I doubt we see much change that way. More of a leveling off is what I expect. Something between euro and GFS

That is what I am hoping for in my backyard. And front yard, too. Would love to get a good thump of snow to begin with and if it does change hopefully it will be a mix of snow and sleet with no freezing rain.