January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[frazdaddy]

23 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I hope people realize how rare/epic 4-6” of sleet would be

I remember the last time for RAH , 85 I think. We measured 8” off Poole rd in Raleigh. It was strange to see the gutters on houses full and some falling off being full of sleet. 

[StoneColdWeatherAustin]

27 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

My amateur gut is telling me a system that continues to strengthen as modeled always ends up bringing the warmth with it causing all but the border counties in NC to mix, historically speaking.  The problem is, as modeled, most of the NC forum sees 12+ before we would switch to several inches of sleet should that happen.  2"qpf?!?  Ugh.  I know one of you in here quietly wished for this and now it appears we're going to deal with it.  Bueller?  Bueller?  Historic and catostrophic are not significant enough words given the broad swipe of winter that is about to happen.  (Throughout the TN valley and MA too!)

The words "historic", "catastrophic", "crippling", etc., have not been significant in a long time.  The media uses those words like I use the bathroom.  All you can do is put the information out there.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, frazdaddy said:

I remember the last time for RAH , 85 I think. We measured 8” off Poole rd in Raleigh. It was strange to see the gutters on houses full and some falling off being full of sleet. 

There was a storm in Raleigh in the 2000’s (can’t remember exactly when) but we had several inches of sleet. We were supposed to go on a family trip and I remember driving to RDU and watching the temp tick down to the mid 20s on the drive only to get there and find the flight was cancelled and drive home in it. Think we mixed with ZR but it was a long duration storm at least a couple days and stayed cold despite it being sleet instead of snow. Some of the best road sledding I remember 

[CentralNC]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

There was a storm in Raleigh in the 2000’s (can’t remember exactly when) but we had several inches of sleet. We were supposed to go on a family trip and I remember driving to RDU and watching the temp tick down to the mid 20s on the drive only to get there and find the flight was cancelled and drive home in it. Think we mixed with ZR but it was a long duration storm at least a couple days and stayed cold despite it being sleet instead of snow. Some of the best road sledding I remember 

This is one I remember 

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

This is one I remember 

It must’ve been that. I thought it was more than that but it was a fun long duration storm. 

[NorthHillsWx]

18 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said:

The words "historic", "catastrophic", "crippling", etc., have not been significant in a long time.  The media uses those words like I use the bathroom.  All you can do is put the information out there.

If anyone in the south gets 2” of frozen/freezing QPF those words are justifiable 

[WXNewton]

I have black circles around my eyes already, it's hard to explain to others why we do what we do, it's an addiction for sure. 

[The 4 Seasons]

That was Presidents Day II!

[Duncana]

Anyone else feel like thing thing will start trending north like usual? And put alot of us back intro ice/rain and rain futher south? Really like to here why this could be different this time ?

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[AirNelson39]

Anyone else feel like thing thing will start trending north like usual? And put alot of us back intro ice/rain and rain futher south? Really like to here why this could be different this time ?

Anything is possible at this range. Certainly uncomfortable being in or close to a sweet spot at this point. We will see “trends” and some will over analyze those trends.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, Duncana said:

Anyone else feel like thing thing will start trending north like usual? And put alot of us back intro ice/rain and rain futher south? Really like to here why this could be different this time ?

In this case, given the impressive blocking, there is a limit to how far north the system gets. However, mid levels are a different story with strong WAA driven by how strong the low becomes. That’s why you’re seeing surface temps remaining steady or even falling while mid levels keep ticking warmer. As long as the HP is close to what is modeled, plain rain will be an afterthought for most on the board. This is an anomalous cold setup at the surface and the battle looks to be in The mid levels 

[gman]

8 minutes ago, Duncana said:

Anyone else feel like thing thing will start trending north like usual? And put alot of us back intro ice/rain and rain futher south? Really like to here why this could be different this time ?

I think there is a better chance of it trending south than north. 

[Brick Tamland]

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

These model runs are actually scary:

Does that really say 15 inches of snow for me on the Euro? Wow, this might really be happening. I don't like the freezing rain, especially those totals to the south of me.

[Duncana]

WPC Increased from 50% to 70% to 70%-90% probabilities now.

[olafminesaw]

The escarpment along the NC/VA border is going to get blasted by the WAA. Wouldn't be surprised if somewhere in that area got 2-3' 

[WNC_Fort]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

The escarpment along the NC/VA border is going to get blasted by the WAA. Wouldn't be surprised if somewhere in that area got 2-3' 

Don’t tease me with such talk. Similar happened in 2018. Where I am on the escarpment and others just RAKED it in during that storm

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, WNC_Fort said:

Don’t tease me with such talk. Similar happened in 2018. Where I am on the escarpment and others just RAKED it in during that storm

This has a lot of similarities to that storm. From a footprint perspective I really think this ends up similarly. Surface is much much colder this time and QPF might be higher. But overall that is an analog to what is developing this weekend 

[Brick Tamland]

Hopefully the freezing rain will end up as more snow or sleet.

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This has a lot of similarities to that storm. From a footprint perspective I really think this ends up similarly. Surface is much much colder this time and QPF might be higher. But overall that is an analog to what is developing this weekend 

For sure. My gut is 8-12" in the triad, but higher impact with 1-2" of that being sleet. 

[olafminesaw]

A few thoughts while we wait for 12z models:

1) be wary of Kuchera maps, as they may over estimate ratios with the warm nose causing the snow to be wetter

2) the front end thump of WAA snow often over performs in terms of snowfall rates, but the sleet line moves north faster than modeled. Areas that are expecting mostly sleet may get 1-3" of snow to start. We will need to wait until the hires NAM is in range late Thursday to start to get a feel for this progression

3)a changeover is inevitable for all but perhaps our most northerly posters, but watch the backside for a changeover back to high ratio snow, particularly if the LP is able to track more to the South

4) watch trends in the track of the low pressure and transfer to the coast today and tomorrow, don't get to sucked into details/totals as we still have 4 days + to go

 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

A few thoughts while we wait for 12z models:

1) be wary of Kuchera maps, as they may over estimate ratios with the warm nose causing the snow to be wetter

2) the front end thump of WAA snow often over performs in terms of snowfall rates, but the sleet line moves north faster than modeled. Areas that are expecting mostly sleet may get 1-3" of snow to start. We will need to wait until the hires NAM is in range late Thursday to start to get a feel for this progression

3)a changeover is inevitable for all but perhaps our most northerly posters, but watch the backside for a changeover back to high ratio snow, particularly if the LP is able to track more to the South

4) watch trends in the track of the low pressure and transfer to the coast today and tomorrow, don't get to sucked into details/totals as we still have 4 days + to go

 

^^^^^ THIS

[wncsnow]

I will add to pay attention to the NAM within 48 hours of the storm. It does amazingly well in CAD setups with warm noses. Its burned many of us before 

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

A few thoughts while we wait for 12z models:

1) be wary of Kuchera maps, as they may over estimate ratios with the warm nose causing the snow to be wetter

2) the front end thump of WAA snow often over performs in terms of snowfall rates, but the sleet line moves north faster than modeled. Areas that are expecting mostly sleet may get 1-3" of snow to start. We will need to wait until the hires NAM is in range late Thursday to start to get a feel for this progression

3)a changeover is inevitable for all but perhaps our most northerly posters, but watch the backside for a changeover back to high ratio snow, particularly if the LP is able to track more to the South

4) watch trends in the track of the low pressure and transfer to the coast today and tomorrow, don't get to sucked into details/totals as we still have 4 days + to go

 

Amen. Noticed this morning that finger of precip stretching into NC seems to find an earlier and earlier arrival time. GSP now has it starting around 10 pm Friday night in my neck of the woods. If so, it’s down to 3 days 

[NorthHillsWx]

@olafminesaw brings up a good point- this storm likely features the WAA “thump”. This is where heroes are made in the mix areas as that front end over performing or switching to mix too fast can make or break a storm. That is 100% something to watch for most areas. 2018 featured one of the heaviest front end thumps I can remember in Raleigh. We got 7-8” in like 6 hours before it switched to rain. In this case there will not be a switch to plain rain, but the thump might be just as important for storm total snowfall.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[HKY_WX]

Best analog on this is Dec 2002... by far. Only difference is it's mid January meaning the Parent high has much colder air to work with. So a larger front end thump of snow/sleet followed by ZR. The transition zone will be much larger as well due to the depth of the cold air. I would like to get the STJ wave onshore (Think tomorrow night) before we get too excited, as the timing and overall size of the storm will be dependent on how much of that baha low ejects. Regardless, it will act to turn the upper levels from the southwest and put us in the right rear entrance region of the upper jet as soon as Friday. This will mean rising air and convergence, so an early start to the precip is likely given the isentropic lifting (cold dome building in and strong forcing moving in overhead from the southwest). Dec 2002 dropped close to 2 inches of precip, which is the potential of this one if we get a full ejection of the baha low. Will get more specific as we near, but definitely make plans for long term power outages and cold if you think you'll be in the ZR zone.

 

[HKY_WX]

2 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Absolutely insane 6z Euro 

 

 

A lot of that will be sleet on the ZR map. Especially as you get farther north. Don't get me wrong though, those who are in the primary ZR zone will be smashed if this comes to fruition.

[SoCoWx]

I think there is a better chance of it trending south than north. 

I hope you’re right. I usually hang out in the Mid-Atlantic forum because I’m in Richmond, and the D.C. and north crew are honking about it trending north.


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[SUNYGRAD]

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