January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[Met1985]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

FYI AIGFS trended somewhat significantly colder, again. It’s like it missed the bus on the blocking/CAD and is running to catch up. 

That's why I don't understand yesterday how so many Mets were mentioning the AI solutions.  Been like that all season with them.

[olafminesaw]

6z Euro a touch colder. Massive run for the Northern half of NC

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[NorthHillsWx]

The @BornAgain13 special 

[buckeyefan1]

Absolutely insane 6z Euro 

 

 

[eyewall]

These model runs are actually scary:

[olafminesaw]

Stop the count! Hopefully the North trend stops today. I take comfort in the general bias of models to overdo phasing and make systems more progressive lately. Not sure if that rule of thumb will hold with the pattern change

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

These model runs are actually scary:

Over a foot of snow with over 1/2” of freezing rain over a giant area would redefine the word “crippling” for years to come 

[NorthHillsWx]

It is hard to take those ZR maps seriously. I haven’t checked euro soundings but most of that ZR area is solidly IP and really not even close on GFS. There is an opportunity here given high QPF for areas to get greater than 6” of snow and 2-4” of IP which would be insane for longevity of the snowpack 

[BooneWX]

Thank you for all of the folks who stayed up and did the play by play! I just don’t have it in me anymore. I’d have to look but we seem to just keep up trending QPF for this event. Idk if I’ve seen anything like it in quite some time. 1.5-2” into temps ranging from the teens to 20s is going to be a sight. 

[BooneWX]

One thing these models aren’t doing a great job with is showing just how expansive the sleet is going to be. Someone in the right spot is going to 4-6” of sleet only during this event. 

[eyewall]

11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Over a foot of snow with over 1/2” of freezing rain over a giant area would redefine the word “crippling” for years to come 

LOL I will be able to post my photos by June. 

[olafminesaw]

19 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

One thing these models aren’t doing a great job with is showing just how expansive the sleet is going to be. Someone in the right spot is going to 4-6” of sleet only during this event. 

I used to work for a company that does snow removal and they said the 4" of compacted snow+sleet in 2022 was harder to deal with than the foot of snow we got in 2018. Schools will be closed for a solid week in many places

[PackGrad05]

Freezing rain is self limiting, unless you have a constantly resupply of cold air at the surface.
As the rain freezes, it releases heat which warms the air. So unless you have new cold air moving in, it is limited.

Also, the wake county battle zone is showing up remarkably well. It’s certainly not going to be all snow. Snow/sleet mix for most in central NC. Hopefully limited freezing rain but needs to be watched.


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[buckeyefan1]

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

Freezing rain is self limiting, unless you have a constantly resupply of cold air at the surface.
As the rain freezes, it releases heat which warms the air. So unless you have new cold air moving in, it is limited.

Also, the wake county battle zone is showing up remarkably well. It’s certainly not going to be all snow. Snow/sleet mix for most in central NC. Hopefully limited freezing rain but needs to be watched.


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Nothing is going to melt with temperatures in the upper teens and low 20’s. That’s instafreeze and isn’t going anywhere once it hits 

[eyewall]

16 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

One thing these models aren’t doing a great job with is showing just how expansive the sleet is going to be. Someone in the right spot is going to 4-6” of sleet only during this event. 

[kvegas-wx]

My amateur gut is telling me a system that continues to strengthen as modeled always ends up bringing the warmth with it causing all but the border counties in NC to mix, historically speaking.  The problem is, as modeled, most of the NC forum sees 12+ before we would switch to several inches of sleet should that happen.  2"qpf?!?  Ugh.  I know one of you in here quietly wished for this and now it appears we're going to deal with it.  Bueller?  Bueller?  Historic and catostrophic are not significant enough words given the broad swipe of winter that is about to happen.  (Throughout the TN valley and MA too!)

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I hope people realize how rare/epic 4-6” of sleet would be

[snowbird1230]

1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Goooooooood morning weather nerds! Here’s your reminder to please keep the memes/gif’s/one liners and whatever random thoughts you have, contained to the appropriate thread. Please add discussion to your posts and maps. Not everyone will know where your backyard is and this will be a very high impact event for a lot of peeps who deserve accurate information. We are the best AMWX has to offer after all
 

Most importantly ya’ll take your meds, practice your breathing skills, use a different finger or thumb for consistent refresh rates of model runs, drink plenty of water, sleep when you can and enjoy the madness we’ve all missed for too long now

Bump

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

My amateur gut is telling me a system that continues to strengthen as modeled always ends up bringing the warmth with it causing all but the border counties in NC to mix, historically speaking.  The problem is, as modeled, most of the NC forum sees 12+ before we would switch to several inches of sleet should that happen.  2"qpf?!?  Ugh.  I know one of you in here quietly wished for this and now it appears we're going to deal with it.  Bueller?  Bueller?  Historic and catostrophic are not significant enough words given the broad swipe of winter that is about to happen.  (Throughout the TN valley and MA too!)

It certainly is concerning, especially for anyone who gets ZR, with near record cold behind it. Thankfully snow shouldn't be wet and sleet is not really a concern from a power outage standpoint. I do anticipate a good deal of confusion from the general public on this point because the thinking goes: sleet is ice an ice causes power outages?

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

My amateur gut is telling me a system that continues to strengthen as modeled always ends up bringing the warmth with it causing all but the border counties in NC to mix, historically speaking.  The problem is, as modeled, most of the NC forum sees 12+ before we would switch to several inches of sleet should that happen.  2"qpf?!?  Ugh.  I know one of you in here quietly wished for this and now it appears we're going to deal with it.  Bueller?  Bueller?  Historic and catostrophic are not significant enough words given the broad swipe of winter that is about to happen.  (Throughout the TN valley and MA too!)

Agreed. This is the rare event where, with 2+” of QPF possible some areas could mix for over half the storm and still end up with a foot of frozen. This isn’t wasting half our 0.30” in mix like we’ve become accustomed to…

[SouthWake33]

Can someone post the 0z eps? I didn’t see it in the thread. With comparison to 12z would be appreciated. Thanks!


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[marsman]

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I hope people realize how rare/epic 4-6” of sleet would be

DC area had about that much in the 06-07ish timeframe. Was like walking through beach sand. Very little stuck to the trees which made the scene look odd. 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, marsman said:

DC area had about that much in the 06-07ish timeframe. Was like walking through beach sand. Very little stuck to the trees which made the scene look odd. 

I was there. I lived in Alexandria at the time. There were 4’ “drifts” by sloped roofs where it had bounced off and accumulated below. That was a glacier until March. Also- that storm was progged to be ZR and it ended up 99% sleet. Very very fond memories of that event up there, gave me a deep appreciation for a heavy sleet storm 

[SUNYGRAD]

Cannot recall seeing these high probabilities in advance (especially for NC) and over such a large area----in several years.  

[Ravens94]

Euro is following the AI on the trend south and slower longer storm. 

[SUNYGRAD]

The High wants to anker in place driving the cold air down for sure.

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

Euro is following the AI on the trend south and slower longer storm. 

Like a tube of toothpaste. Squeeze down one end with the high pressure (over the southern plains) and it pops out on the other side (amplified coastal low). 

[NorthHillsWx]

8 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

Euro is following the AI on the trend south and slower longer storm. 

These are the trends we want

[suzook]

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

These model runs are actually scary:

Very.