January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[mstr4j]

So for us Spartanburg, SC folk - the determining factor between ice and snow looks like a 30-50 mile range of the HP - it seems plausible at this point based on models, at its current placement the strength of the high will deliver CAD - just depends if the placement of the high will drive the system south.  For us rednecks from Cowpens, is this correct?  Thanks guy, long long long time lurker!

[WarmNoseHater]

12 minutes ago, btownheel said:

We gonna talk about what the Euro AIFS just barfed out? Because it’s the most absurd clown I’ve ever seen. Even the DGEX didn’t snow porn like that.


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can you post it a snapshot?

[buckeyefan1]

1 minute ago, WarmNoseHater said:

can you post it a snapshot?

It’s been posted already 

[Brick Tamland]

Incredible Euro run. In agreement with GFS, too. And the models that are further north continue to shift south. This is looking great for most of NC.

[BornAgain13]

12z EPS is a Dream Run for NC/VA. 

[BornAgain13]

[BornAgain13]

12z EPS

[EarlGrey]

For once there’s not

5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z EPS

a huge gradient through Wake County.

[SnowDawg]

I’ll preface this by saying the ceiling of any event is rarely met for one reason or another, but this is one of the higher ceiling events I’ve seen in quite some time.

[SEwakenosnowforu]

1 minute ago, EarlGrey said:

For once there’s not

a huge gradient through Wake County.

This should not surprise anyone! Lol

[lilj4425]

58 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Glad I will be out of the country. Whew. Why does snow hate Upstate SC so much? 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

it’s been a while since we’ve been at 90-100% chance of greater than an inch five days out 

[CaryWx]

BamWx guy sees this as some sort cutter xfer more or less with snow well north but we will have some cad effects in nc/sc/ga but no snow out of it.

[BornAgain13]

10 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

BamWx guy sees this as some sort cutter xfer more or less with snow well north but we will have some cad effects in nc/sc/ga but no snow out of it.

Is he wishcasting?

[btownheel]

True.  This doesn’t look like a snow/ freezing rain line.  There will be a significant sleet area.

Right now, I (Gibsonville) feel really good about either all snow or snow/sleet ala 2014 here. That polar air mass isn’t screwing around and no way we have 20 degrees at surface and the column gets scoured all the way down. Obviously things could shift but this looks strong for central NC and the 85 corridor.


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[SnowDawg]

The idea of a cutter is ridiculous unless the HP is just way weaker or later than currently shown. Now, a more amped further north track certainly on the table, and honestly the ensembles did move slightly in that direction.

[Met1985]

14 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Is he wishcasting?

He's riding the AI versions and saying this will cut. I mean the high pressing down would have to be weaker for that to happen. 

[btownheel]

It’s been posted already 

Actually the truly LOL one I was referring to was the Feb. 2 aggregate (both storms).



Insanity.


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[WarmNoseHater]

thanks - that was the one i was trying to find unsuccessfully.

[SnowDawg]

Euro moved towards way less upper air warmth on the 12z run in North GA. This temp cross section is at Blairsville, GA. Notice how much more of the column is isothermal most of the time than in the 6z run. The 6z run of course cuts off with the storm in progress but still noticeable difference nonetheless. 

If things can trend a bit more that direction as we move forward, I’d expect more snow/sleet vs ZR to start showing up over N GA and the Upstate. Of course track/intensity would need to cooperate, but that’s a given.

[BornAgain13]

18z NAM with a 1056 HP at the end of its run 

[olafminesaw]

[franklin NCwx]

7 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Euro moved towards way less upper air warmth on the 12z run in North GA. This temp cross section is at Blairsville, GA. Notice how much more of the column is isothermal most of the time than in the 6z run. The 6z run of course cuts off with the storm in progress but still noticeable difference nonetheless. 

If things can trend a bit more that direction as we move forward, I’d expect more snow/sleet vs ZR to start showing up over N GA and the Upstate. Of course track/intensity would need to cooperate, but that’s a given.

This has more room to move south vs north with the dominant northern jet 

[BornAgain13]

Updated NBM

[Scottie16]

Updated NBM

Doesn’t have the Euro correct?


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[Jimbo!]

Updated NBM

So my big question is, who has the plow to pick up me and the surgical team so this doesn’t get cancelled lol


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[SnowDawg]

I’m hopeful but still cautious. The confidence some very good Mets have at the chance for the low track to still be as high as TN/KY worries me. We really need a missed phase and weaker strung out system to fight that. Who woulda thought we’d be cheering for that after these last few years lol?

[Tony Sisk]

GSP 4:00pm

A low pressure system will move near the area this weekend.
Temperatures will be cold enough for wintry precipitation for much
of the area. Details remain uncertain, but there is the potential for
significant wintry weather. Stay up to date with the latest forecasts
as the details evolve.

[olafminesaw]

Icon jumps south of 12z

[Thrasher Fan]

Considerable shift south on the 18z ICON. Less moisture to work with as well.

*of note* 18z only runs to 120h so not fully within the window but southerly trend none the less.