Jan 17-18 Sunday Funday Storm

[Brick Tamland]

[Brick Tamland]

[Brick Tamland]

NAM still has snow but looks less impressive this run.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like all snow for those that get precip in Wake and westward.

[BooneWX]

Yep, definitely not as juicy of a run. 

[Brick Tamland]

Still going in central NC.

[NorthHillsWx]

Light snow, midday, 37 degrees, what could go wrong?

[Brick Tamland]

Oh well, better than all rain.

 

 

[BooneWX]

RRFS will save us 

[Ja643y]

Can someone with way more knowledge than me weigh in… the setup on 0z versus 18z looks better, but is it just faster? The neutral tilt at hr 69 looks much better to my untrained eye on the 0z, but maybe just too fast, thus late? Or could this be a surface depiction issue and that shield should be much further NW? 

[SnowDawg]

Just too dang weak and positive tilted to throw enough precip back west. So frustrating… Also looks like the bigger runs this morning had a bit of a Pacific jet injection and that is trending down, so less overall moisture in the system.

[HWY316wx]

7 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Just too dang weak and positive tilted to throw enough precip back west. So frustrating… Also looks like the bigger runs this morning had a bit of a Pacific jet injection and that is trending down, so less overall moisture in the system.

Painful.  Waste of a good shot at winning.

[snowbird1230]

Close the thread.

[HWY316wx]

8 hours ago, calculus1 said:

I'm on board with your first few sentences. My only issue with this post is the bold portion. I'm so excited about the potential for college football parity. I've had more than my fill of seasons where Georgia, Clemson, Ohio State, and Alabama win it all. I'm sure these are fighting words, but I could go another 10 years or more before I would want to see one of those programs win it all. 

Understood.  As a UGA fan I had to wait a LONG time to get the monkey off my back.  No offense taken.  LOL!!!

[BooneWX]

Shifts east or west are one thing but we’re sort of trending towards losing the storm all together 

[wncsnow]

12 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Shifts east or west are one thing but we’re sort of trending towards losing the storm all together 

I dont know why its so hard to get a cold precip bomb nowadays. I long for the long track storms from TX to the east coast with lots of precip, severe weather on the gulf coast, snow, ice, negative  tllt, thundersnow. Nope. Just northern stream bullshit. Even last year models were spitting out 4-8 inches of snow here only to dampen out to a measly 2 inches. 

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I dont know why its so hard to get a cold precip bomb nowadays. I long for the long track storms from TX to the east coast with lots of precip, severe weather on the gulf coast, snow, ice, negative  tllt, thundersnow. Nope. Just northern stream bullshit. Even last year models were spitting out 4-8 inches of snow here only to dampen out to a measly 2 inches. 

We've been in a -PDO pit for 10 years.  That makes La Ninas dominant.  LN's kill the southern stream   Next year should be wetter.  But could be a torch.  Pick your poison.

[wncsnow]

56 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

Close the thread.

 

[JoshM]

[SnowDawg]

I’m gonna try to bring an ounce of positivity as I go to bed. Despite the GFS/NAM being stupid and jumping all the way off the storm on today’s runs, a lot of the other data is actually on a steady move west. Canadian and its ensemble, Euro AI, AI GFS and ensemble, and more. As bad as the GFS was at 0z, the GEFS ticked back west. Lastly the Euro itself and its ensemble did as well. I’m not ready to jump off the cliff yet on this one, it’s still too close. Probably won’t happen in the end, but we’ve gotten NW trends of this magnitude inside this timeframe before. 
 

Euro AI trend as an example.

 

[JoshM]

6z NAM tries to pull us back in

[NorthHillsWx]

6z GFS ticked back west maybe a hair more neutral tilt. Still too much of a late bloomer but much closer than 0z

[WXNewton]

6z GEFS beefs totals back up over Southern GA and into FL panhandle.

[Snow dog]

9 hours ago, snowbird1230 said:

Close the thread.

Never should have been started…

[WarmNoseHater]

It’s crazy that Valdosta Georgia could get their second significant snowfall in the last 12 months while NC keeps getting rained out. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Looks like models converging now a bit more with GFS and European moving west a bit closer to the NAM .  Temps will be an issue unless rates were actually more towards the NAM.  It’s a bummer for many here but an inch or 2 is not completely out of the question for some.

[stormwatcherJ]

10 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Looks like models converging now a bit more with GFS and European moving west a bit closer to the NAM .  Temps will be an issue unless rates were actually more towards the NAM.  It’s a bummer for many here but an inch or 2 is not completely out of the question for some.

NWS for my region sounds like the only hope may be that temps don't rise as highly as expected on Saturday, so it takes less time to get cool enough on Sunday. Maybe something to keep an eye on for a few of us. 

[neverSnowsLCSC]

Hope something shifts for yall inland and you get blasted with snow. Looks like we along the coast'll have to wait for another opportunity.

[NorthHillsWx]

I’d be OK with where we are if the cold was here. No cold, mid day, light rates… Think some folks will be fighting for an inch between central Georgia and Richmond but that’s about it 

[kvegas-wx]

It was 16° this morning in the Triad and we get nothing but sun and wind.  Our weather is so broken.