First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

IDK, I wouldn't hammer mid level banding too much....looks like it's past us by the time H85 closes, NVM H7.

That's the direction I am leaning towards. I've spent the past hour just looking at anything and everything relating to storm evolution and it's really difficult to come to a conclusion that the mid-levels develop in time to really produce. If it does happen...this is going to be a big overperformer and I would still expect that to be within the CT River Valley...but just not seeing enough to bite and expect it will happen. 

[dryslot]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Heading up Wednesday morning…they’re in great shape. Picked up 7-8” yesterday.  Hope your trip was great Jeff. 

Wet snow going over to the forks, 105 miles thurs, My port on my sled for the heated shield is not working, Rode with my helmet open and continuous wiping the vizer and my glasses fogging up, Sucked, Good thing it wasn't yesterday, 5°F, Rode my 2020 Enduro, No problem with the heated shield but dropped my sled off at Wallingfords for them to look at seeing it was working before they worked on it last spring.

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... for starters, I gave you plenty - and so did others:   no one can (apparently) define the discrete processes in the construct of these tools.   

For all we know, if they ever succeed(fail) it may just be dumb fuck luck.  This situation is no different.   

This is the logical and the correct approach. 

It certainly may come off as a trophy wave time - firstly, nothing's happened yet.  Secondly, even these tools wavered E at one time or the other over the last 30 hour's worth of cycles. So they are back?   I can tell you meteorologically why these runs are coming back, without using "blind" model methods - which they are ... until such time as these organization(s) et all put out knowledge-based tell-out educational prospecti about the math and philosophies of these instruments. 

Until that happens, you'll get burned one day, eventually ... if you don't know what it is you are dealing with.   

True-but most disparage without having any idea why.

[nutmegfriar]

Started as white rain in Chester/Deep River CT but has flipped to snow.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like hrrr shaved a tad off. Still a good look

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That's the direction I am leaning towards. I've spent the past hour just looking at anything and everything relating to storm evolution and it's really difficult to come to a conclusion that the mid-levels develop in time to really produce. If it does happen...this is going to be a big overperformer and I would still expect that to be within the CT River Valley...but just not seeing enough to bite and expect it will happen. 

Yea, I have been aggressive on this from the get-go, aside from when I got skiddish last night, but I don't see enough evidence that the kicker will allow this to congeal enough in the vicinity of our area to have those mid levels close quickly enough.

[CoastalWx]

Inv dong of destiny to end

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I have been aggressive on this from the get-go, aside from when I got skiddish last night, but I don't see enough evidence that the kicker will allow this to congeal enough in the vicinity of our area to have those mid levels close quickly enough.

Anyways at least this looks like a good solid regionwide 3-6" event. Don't want anyone interpret the discussion of the mid-levels meaning this is cooked lol. Just moreso trying to gauge what's the upper ceiling we're working with here

[ORH_wxman]

NAM looks a little more amped through 15h…we’ll see how it handles as it climbs latitude. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM looks a little more amped through 15h…we’ll see how it handles as it climbs latitude. 

You’d think this would be loaded with gulf moisture.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

You’d think this would be loaded with gulf moisture.

One mild negative this run is the vort doesn’t look like it has as good of a “curl” to it by 21h

[dryslot]

18z Nam look like its will be a tic or two east this run.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM looks a little more amped through 15h…we’ll see how it handles as it climbs latitude. 

Dong

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

One mild negative this run is the vort doesn’t look like it has as good of a “curl” to it by 21h

Looks meh so far

[dryslot]

Hot garbage.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Looks kind of like a disorganized mess. This is why we don’t spike footballs before the event. Not in 2026

[MJO812]

Weaker but still good for up there

[weatherwiz]

chasing convection again?

[weatherwiz]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Weaker but still good for up there

outside of interior NE MA those rates are putrid. that's salt shaker snow

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

chasing convection again?

It kinds of looks like it a bit, because Will is right, it did look more amped to start.

Could be real though 

[CoastalWx]

Torch too. Hope we can toss it 

[WxWatcher007]

I don't think anybody is spiking. There will be drama all the way to the end. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It kinds of looks like it a bit, because Will is right, it did look more amped to start.

Could be real though 

yup...sucks when you get this convective chasing crap because there is no way to know for sure if its accurate until the event is unfolding. It also gets going just a tad too late...you can see if trying to recover and build NW at hr 30-33

[dryslot]

Pretty warm at the surface in SEMA.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Weak and a torch. That would be a non event here.

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 I can tell you meteorologically why these runs are coming back, without using "blind" model methods - which they are ... until such time as these organization(s) et all put out knowledge-based tell-out educational prospecti about the math and philosophies of these instruments. 

The whole point of AI...the human race doesn't need to think anymore, it will be done for us by machines...at least until they decide we are unnecessary!

Moo haha

[Baroclinic Zone]

It’s late developing but gets going finally.

nice initial WAA push into CT.

[ORH_wxman]

Best dynamics this run are actually from about 495 back through Kevin’s area and CT  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Best dynamics this run are actually from about 495 back through Kevin’s area and CT  

Same winners as today.

[vortex95]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like hrrr shaved a tad off. Still a good look

 

What's this rear weenie bonus convectivey-NORLUN type stuff at the end???  12z had it as well.  Nothing would surprise me given how odd this season is so far w/ local snow maxes!