First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Like a fart ? Did you have to let it linger 

Did someone pull your finger

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Like Ray’s fart in the gym after doing dead lifts.

Remember that one he let go in that bar ? It cleared the room. Gaggings

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like this comes in tomorrow afternoon and heaviest is into the night?

hires has snow by daybreak heaviest is def afternoon 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

hrrr not backing down, pressure fields looks a tick east, but precip is further west.. it's angled a bit different this run shouldn't jack albany this time, as it's not as negatively tilted .. 

[WinterWolf]

What do we think the NAM does in an hour or so?  Any hunches? 

[RDRY]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

What do we think the NAM does in an hour or so?  Any hunches? 

Freezing rain.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What do we think the NAM does in an hour or so?  Any hunches? 

We get Nam'd or scraper.. nothing normal lol.. 

[CoastalWx]

This run kind of sucks. It’s warm everywhere.

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No offense to you and others, but you all have had a few bones thrown away the last several years. The only thing I have thrown my way was Kevin’s Weedwhacker up my fanny.

This is true…it’s been even worse out your way for sure. We didn’t get in on the historic snows of 2015(and 1/29/22) out this way, so our debt was less, and we became square with the house sooner, thus the bones that were thrown to us here and there the past 4-5 yrs.

Kind of astounding how that has seemed to play out…pretty much just like that. 

[SouthCoastMA]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think that’s why you want the meat of  this to come over because that would help you flip. Winds do go north and that should help because it’s not really that warm just above you.

I think it's going to be a pasty couple inches..which id take. 

[CoastalWx]

Tossing this run 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We get Nam'd or scraper.. nothing normal lol.. 

lol so no in between sensible stuff…just one extreme or the other. Sounds about right. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Tossing this run 

Toss that whole model. 

[CoastalWx]

Tries to beef up late tomorrow it seems. Hopefully when Drake Maye is beefing up touchdowns. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This run kind of sucks. It’s warm everywhere.

925 looks pretty cold

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tries to beef up late tomorrow it seems. Hopefully when Drake Maye is beefing up touchdowns. 

Looks fine, 00z did this, not nearly as zonked as 6z but it's just the HRRR too so just looking for trends , counting every model with warning snows a win for AI, looking for red flags also.. First half of storm in SE areas could def be white rain..  Thats a widespread 4-8/5-10" across all of SNE

[MJO812]

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

925 looks pretty cold

Yeah I don’t see an issue with this run. All guidance has 32-35 tomorrow during the day until it falls late afternoon. The real snow doesn’t happen until then anyway. There’s some front-running stuff that has been a relatively recent development on most guidance that falls morning/midday but it’s not the main show…at least for eastern areas it isn’t. 

[moneypitmike]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What do we think the NAM does in an hour or so?  Any hunches? 

Some say it may be better, the same, or worse. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I don’t see an issue with this run. All guidance has 32-35 tomorrow during the day until it falls late afternoon. The real snow doesn’t happen until then anyway. There’s some front-running stuff that has been a relatively recent development on most guidance that falls morning/midday but it’s not the main show…at least for eastern areas it isn’t. 

The thermals I’m tossing. Doubt it snows to CON at 34. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

The thermals I’m tossing. Doubt it snows to CON at 34. 

Yeah it’s prob a little on the warm side…just not egregiously so. I’d prob shave a couple degrees off it around here. Euro seemed more realistic. 

[CoastalWx]

HRRR does this and I don’t know why

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I don’t see an issue with this run. All guidance has 32-35 tomorrow during the day until it falls late afternoon. The real snow doesn’t happen until then anyway. There’s some front-running stuff that has been a relatively recent development on most guidance that falls morning/midday but it’s not the main show…at least for eastern areas it isn’t. 

where ya'll getting the NAM so early?

[CoastalWx]

Sorry should have been clearer. The Synoptics are ok, thermals seem warm but whatever…the HRRZr beyond 24. Do think we have a little white rain to start. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

where ya'll getting the NAM so early?

It’s the hrrr

[TheSnowman]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A very snowy weekend folks. I think I speak for all of us.. We are very grateful and thankful. 

Once Again.  There’s an Ounce of Hope, and Kevin IMMEDIATELY goes into HECS mode.  And somehow the We All Gave Up on the OTS Storm will end up giving me 0.5” but him 3” even though he’s an hour west of me, and he’ll proclaim “See I Was Right!”  

[Damage In Tolland]

Seems concensus is starts as paste and turns to powder overnight 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, TheSnowman said:

Once Again.  There’s an Ounce of Hope, and Kevin IMMEDIATELY goes into HECS mode.  And somehow the We Also Gave Up OTS Storm will end up giving me 0.5” but him 3” and he’ll proclaim “See I Was Right!”  

Just squeeze a few out on the box to take out your anger 

[Baroclinic Zone]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Got to see 12z for me.

I’m not typically the optimist but I do think this will come in more favorably at 12z. There has been some subtle changes that I’ve noticed. Slightly better ridging ahead of system as well as some weakness between the systems to the north. We are also see an overall strengthening of the system, which also assists with pumping up those heights ahead of system.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems concensus is starts as paste and turns to powder overnight 

You ma fluff your way to higher amounts. Looks mostly paste here which will cut back. Probably white rain for a few hours.