SouthCoastMA Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Meh. One model model outside of its range. Need to see that with RGEM/GFS to make anything of it. Though technically the RGEM is still outside its range too. Gotta see the whole 12z suite including AI models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 Ignored for now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Bad start to 12z Goalposts are set. NAM east, RGEM/AI's most amped. Euro/GFS kinda inbetween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 If ICON and RGEM go east, then the trend is prob real. But yeah, not putting a ton of stock into a NAM run…but still, if there was going to be a hard trend west, you’d think the NAM would be all over it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 In reality, I would not put much stock into any meso model and not just because we're outside of the range they are useful for, but they are not particularly good with phasing events and aren't really designed for them anyways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If ICON and RGEM go east, then the trend is prob real. But yeah, not putting a ton of stock into a NAM run…but still, if there was going to be a hard trend west, you’d think the NAM would be all over it. That’s what concerns me. Feels like a Lucy coming. I sure hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If ICON and RGEM go east, then the trend is prob real. But yeah, not putting a ton of stock into a NAM run…but still, if there was going to be a hard trend west, you’d think the NAM would be all over it. The RGEM looked like it started shuffling east at 6z.....Not that I put too much into that model, but it was quite steady for a while until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 That H5 look resembles the euro although it’s still a bit flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, Spanks45 said: The RGEM looked like it started shuffling east at 6z.....Not that I put too much into that model, but it was quite steady for a while until then. It was one of the western outliers so I’m not too concerned it ticked east a little at 06z. It would be more concerning if it did it again at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s what concerns me. Feels like a Lucy coming. I sure hope not. I'm ready for that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: I'm ready for that You’ll be fine. Should get some tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 A decade ago, this would be an easy trend in to 8-12” region wide. My guess is this ends up out to sea. We’ve seen this exact pattern play out already like 3 times this year. Threat looks awful at day 4. Subtle trends back the next few cycles, and then the rug pull and it spends the final 48 hours ticking east 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: A decade ago, this would be an easy trend in to 8-12” region wide. My guess is this ends up out to sea. We’ve seen this exact pattern play out already like 3 times this year. Threat looks awful at day 4. Subtle trends back the next few cycles, and then the rug pull and it spends the final 48 hours ticking east These events have been poo poo as always modeled and then try to get favorable…..but honestly they never looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Many spooked by the NAM, and jaded by the recent years. I get it, but it holds little wait until we see the others start doing the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You’ll be fine. Should get some tomorrow. I'm pretty confident about Saturday... I think Sunday/Monday is up in the air for my area... leaning nothing much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Let’s wait for the big leagues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Icon miss Reggie slightly flatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It was one of the western outliers so I’m not too concerned it ticked east a little at 06z. It would be more concerning if it did it again at 12z. Definitely looks like it is ticking east too at 12z, still spreads precip well west into western New york Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Reggie is still decent but slightly lowered amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Not liking the trends for this.. but I am liking the trends for tomorrow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Reggie is better at 500vs 6z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Yeah Reggie was decent here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Icon miss Reggie slightly flatter Icon has been a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah Reggie was decent here. at work, did it spread wealth NW, or is it a scraper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I don’t know, I thought Reggie looked okay. Definitely not like the NAM. ICON is a whiff but I thought it improved a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I don’t know, I thought Reggie looked okay. Definitely not like the NAM. ICON is a whiff but I thought it improved a bit Icon did improve but not at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: at work, did it spread wealth NW, or is it a scraper? Tightened the gradient a bit by ern CT but looked like .25” for you or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 The other thing I noticed is that some models are chasing convection. That might factor in too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Reggie is better at 500vs 6z Yeah…the s/w was a little more neggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 RGEM is warm here..rain ending as 1-2". woof NAM/ICON are the two models you'd want to be eastern outliers at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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