First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[SouthCoastMA]

Meh. One model model outside of its range. Need to see that with RGEM/GFS to make anything of it. Though technically the RGEM is still outside its range too. Gotta see the whole 12z suite including AI models. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ignored for now.

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Bad start to 12z

Goalposts are set. NAM east, RGEM/AI's most amped. Euro/GFS kinda inbetween

[ORH_wxman]

If ICON and RGEM go east, then the trend is prob real. But yeah, not putting a ton of stock into a NAM run…but still, if there was going to be a hard trend west, you’d think the NAM would be all over it. 

[weatherwiz]

In reality, I would not put much stock into any meso model and not just because we're outside of the range they are useful for, but they are not particularly good with phasing events and aren't really designed for them anyways.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If ICON and RGEM go east, then the trend is prob real. But yeah, not putting a ton of stock into a NAM run…but still, if there was going to be a hard trend west, you’d think the NAM would be all over it. 

That’s what concerns me. Feels like a Lucy coming. I sure hope not.

[Spanks45]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If ICON and RGEM go east, then the trend is prob real. But yeah, not putting a ton of stock into a NAM run…but still, if there was going to be a hard trend west, you’d think the NAM would be all over it. 

The RGEM looked like it started shuffling east at 6z.....Not that I put too much into that model, but it was quite steady for a while until then. 

[dendrite]

That H5 look resembles the euro although it’s still a bit flatter.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

The RGEM looked like it started shuffling east at 6z.....Not that I put too much into that model, but it was quite steady for a while until then. 

It was one of the western outliers so I’m not too concerned it ticked east a little at 06z. It would be more concerning if it did it again at 12z. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s what concerns me. Feels like a Lucy coming. I sure hope not.

I'm ready for that

[CoastalWx]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

I'm ready for that

You’ll be fine. Should get some tomorrow.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

A decade ago, this would be an easy trend in to 8-12” region wide.

My guess is this ends up out to sea. We’ve seen this exact pattern play out already like 3 times this year. Threat looks awful at day 4. Subtle trends back the next few cycles, and then the rug pull and it spends the final 48 hours ticking east 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

A decade ago, this would be an easy trend in to 8-12” region wide.

My guess is this ends up out to sea. We’ve seen this exact pattern play out already like 3 times this year. Threat looks awful at day 4. Subtle trends back the next few cycles, and then the rug pull and it spends the final 48 hours ticking east 

These events have been poo poo as always modeled and then try to get favorable…..but honestly they never looked good. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Many spooked by the NAM, and jaded by the recent years. I get it, but it holds little wait until we see the others start doing the same. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You’ll be fine. Should get some tomorrow.

I'm pretty confident about Saturday... I think Sunday/Monday is up in the air for my area... leaning nothing much

[Kitz Craver]

Let’s wait for the big leagues 

[MJO812]

Icon miss

Reggie slightly flatter

[Spanks45]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was one of the western outliers so I’m not too concerned it ticked east a little at 06z. It would be more concerning if it did it again at 12z. 

Definitely looks like it is ticking east too at 12z, still spreads precip well west into western New york

[MJO812]

Reggie is still decent but slightly lowered amounts.

[ineedsnow]

Not liking the trends for this.. but I am liking the trends for tomorrow here

[CoastalWx]

Reggie is better at 500vs 6z

[CoastalWx]

Yeah Reggie was decent here. 

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon miss

Reggie slightly flatter

Icon has been a miss.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah Reggie was decent here. 

at work, did it spread wealth NW, or is it a scraper?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I don’t know, I thought Reggie looked okay. Definitely not like the NAM.

ICON is a whiff but I thought it improved a bit 

[MJO812]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t know, I thought Reggie looked okay. Definitely not like the NAM.

ICON is a whiff but I thought it improved a bit 

Icon did improve but not at the surface 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

at work, did it spread wealth NW, or is it a scraper?

Tightened the gradient a bit by ern CT but looked like .25” for you or so. 

[CoastalWx]

The other thing I noticed is that some models are chasing convection. That might factor in too.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie is better at 500vs 6z

Yeah…the s/w was a little more neggy. 

[SouthCoastMA]

RGEM is warm here..rain ending as 1-2". woof

NAM/ICON are the two models you'd want to be eastern outliers at least.