First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We need to sneak a biggie or 3 in before the draft.

We need to lock Scooter into a padded room until we are 24 hours away from a big storm…once we’re confident it’s a hit, we’ll let him out. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What is making it more perplexing to me is we’re seeing conflicting trends so I don’t see how we just punt this yet. Yeah, the 06z gfs looked awful but both AIs got better at 06z and the euro maybe slightly got better (not saying much though). 
 

It’s admittedly a tight squeeze and I don’t expect a major event like some of the more bullish solutions. But I wouldn’t write off a solid advisory to perhaps even low end warning event in spots yet. 

Yeah, I agree that a full strike with a moderate event ( this has a lower ceiling btw - unless something bizarre suddenly shows up that had zero grid presentation before hand.. non-zero chance I guess)  has not been removed from the spectrum of outcomes.  However, a complete whiff cannot be ruled out just the same.

This needs to be < 72 ...maybe 84 hours I feel, because all the governing kinematics will be in the digestive system of the continental synoptic body, and we'll see what it poops out for us at that time.  

[ineedsnow]

18 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’m friends with him, he’s a pretty solid amateur weather guy.
Dave tries to call it as he sees it with no hype.

Why isn't he on the board?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Why isn't he on the board?

He probably prefers to keep his sanity 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Rock bottom.  When I see a post about the 84 Reggie...and I dive in to take a look.  I need an intervention.

[dendrite]

I don’t have a lot of hope for this. The last 2 gfs runs have been like the euro with a positively tilted shortwave with strung out vortmax. That 12z run was negative and consolidated and curled in with a strong punch of dPVA to really elicit the surface pressure falls. 18z backed off a bit, but still has some snow for eastern sections. 00z and 06z have trended toward a dud look.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

Rock bottom.  When I see a post about the 84 Reggie...and I dive in to take a look.  I need an intervention.

RRFS would be wild 

[ineedsnow]

12z NAMMY with a nice snower Saturday 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I don’t have a lot of hope for this. The last 2 gfs runs have been like the euro with a positively tilted shortwave with strung out vortmax. That 12z run was negative and consolidated and curled in with a strong punch of dPVA to really elicit the surface pressure falls. 18z backed off a bit, but still has some snow for eastern sections. 00z and 06z have trended toward a dud look.

Neither did Bears fans entering the 4th quarter. 

Let's Chicago Bears this thing

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I don’t have a lot of hope for this. The last 2 gfs runs have been like the euro with a positively tilted shortwave with strung out vortmax. That 12z run was negative and consolidated and curled in with a strong punch of dPVA to really elicit the surface pressure falls. 18z backed off a bit, but still has some snow for eastern sections. 00z and 06z have trended toward a dud look.

No argument ...

12z has a low probability recovery chance.   Tho it grows more and more difficult to imagine something working out right given the persistent failure quota, no doubt.  

Realistically, the odds probably don't favor so we're flipping weighted coins

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I don’t have a lot of hope for this. The last 2 gfs runs have been like the euro with a positively tilted shortwave with strung out vortmax. That 12z run was negative and consolidated and curled in with a strong punch of dPVA to really elicit the surface pressure falls. 18z backed off a bit, but still has some snow for eastern sections. 00z and 06z have trended toward a dud look.

We can’t get one fucking coherent shortwave. Instead it has to be a Diddy freak off of shortwaves in the trough.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z NAMMY with a nice snower Saturday 

It’s happening 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s happening 

1 to 2 spot 3 probably but nice to get something

[CoastalWx]

Just a s/w orgy. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

1 to 2 spot 3 probably but nice to get something

Not much precip except the cape and WoR. What else is new. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

1 to 2 spot 3 probably but nice to get something

If qpf is right.. a few lucky areas could get 4”from here up to your area But let’s move this to the other thread 

[ineedsnow]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We can’t get one fucking coherent shortwave. Instead it has to be a Diddy freak off of shortwaves in the trough.

This you?

[Cyclone-68]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully nobody expected a KU, but I’m 100% done with another 1-2” of sublimation. If I could move to Fl I would. This is meteorological solitary confinement.

Thunderstorms and cool pool water every day? Sign me up too 

edit: if it’s not going to snow here that is 

[Kitz Craver]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We can’t get one fucking coherent shortwave. Instead it has to be a Diddy freak off of shortwaves in the trough.

I blame the oil, just too much damn baby oil.

[wxsniss]

43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

no, it's vestigial of S/W moving into/through a compressed field

Probably both true... it is indeed remnant of a trailing S/W (circled in green below), but it also pulses off the southeast coast (green circle in 2nd frame) and I wonder if it's convection-related feedback... in any case, that might be interfering with more proficient cyclogenesis

Variation of theme of too many chefs and lacking a discrete enough shortwave

I don't think the 0z Euro or 6z models close this potential. AIs support advisory and probably what I'd favor at this point, but everything from a graze to warning in parts of SNE still realistic possibilities 84h out.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I blame the oil, just too much damn baby oil.

Hopefully many of you are lubed up after the dirty things that have been done to us since 2022

[Cyclone-68]

18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Neither did Bears fans entering the 4th quarter. 

Let's Chicago Bears this thing

This is more like the Atlanta Super Bowl I fear 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully nobody expected a KU, but I’m 100% done with another 1-2” of sublimation. If I could move to Fl I would. This is meteorological solitary confinement.

You’ll get a lot of shit for this, but I’m right there with you.

If this is destined to be another 2-3” nuisance, I’d much rather it head to Bermuda than here.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

This is more like the Atlanta Super Bowl I fear 

nahhh that would be more if we had model consensus for a big hit now, only to see the rug get pulled out from under us as we got closer

[ineedsnow]

12z NAM looks like it would miss

[MJO812]

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

12z NAM looks like it would miss

Prob a scraper for SE areas. Not relevant though at this time range. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Probably both true... it is indeed remnant of a trailing S/W (circled in green below), but it also pulses off the southeast coast (green circle in 2nd frame) and I wonder if it's convection-related feedback... in any case, that might be interfering with more proficient cyclogenesis

Variation of theme of too many chefs and lacking a discrete enough shortwave

I don't think the 0z Euro or 6z models close this potential. AIs support advisory and probably what I'd favor at this point, but everything from a graze to warning in parts of SNE still realistic possibilities 84h out.

Actually the the convection is triggered the other way.  The vmax has streamline and flow velocity -related difluence above an unstable environment, so the convection is triggering along that axis ahead of the vorticity ribbon you circled. 

Convective vorticity exposes in the speckling you see out ahead.  Those are convective induced

[CoastalWx]

At least Virginia gets snow. They need it. 

[ORH_wxman]

If we can get that MN kicker s/w to keep digging west, that is going to help. You want to do anything to help the southern vort gain latitude without sacrificing too much eastward longitude. NAM is digging it further west which was good…not that the NAM is good, but that’s what you’ll want to see on other model guidance.