SnoSki14 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 9 minutes ago, mob1 said: ...to this. Let's see if it continues to expand to our area. If the HRRR is right it will explode quickly between now and 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, ag3 said: Tonight will overperform IMO. I think there's a good chance. WX/PT 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, Wxoutlooksblog said: I think there's a good chance. WX/PT What indicators could suggest this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: What indicators could suggest this? None. Most models have an additional 2" for NYC. Just light snow here, as it's been on and off for the past 4 hours or so with minimal accumulation. Mainly white rain along the shoreline too. Would take heavy snow in order to overperform the 2-4" that was expected 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 minutes ago, ag3 said: Tonight will overperform IMO. Hop so-the HRRR is a bit east of my liking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: What indicators could suggest this? Yeah, I was thinking several hours ago we could get an extra 3-5", but looks like precip forecasts have backed down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: None. Most models have an additional 2" for NYC. Just light snow here, as it's been on and off for the past 4 hours or so with minimal accumulation. Mainly white rain along the shoreline too. Would take heavy snow in order to overperform the 2-4" that was expected for once i agree with you lol. 2-3 for most tonight-take it and run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: What indicators could suggest this? Radar, temperatures, and the HRRR model which has been a little faster moving elements than is actually happening but otherwise accurate. WX/PT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: What indicators could suggest this? -6 850's area is one and HRRR guidance is another 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I think overperformer maybe for eastern areas like eastern LI and eastern CT. Everywhere else probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: for once i agree with you lol. 2-3 for most tonight-take it and run Honestly i'd be fine with 2-3 tonight on top of what we have. A bigger storm would be nice but with a cold week ahead a grassy snowpack of 5 inches or so is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Cold 850s, night time, good snow growth, blossoming precip leaf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: I think overperformer maybe for eastern areas like eastern LI and eastern CT. Everywhere else probably not. Those areas have been over-performing for 2 years or more. I think this time will be no exception. When I say there's a good chance this could over perform I'm not referring to all locations. There are different forces at play here. You have the signs that the coastal will indirectly enhance the snowfall rates here and colder air will also squeeze out a little more moisture. But there is also a drier punch of air which will move in from the west and the clipper moving across the northern tier will be trying to kick this system out to the east. So we just have to see what forces win out. The heaviest precipitation on the guidance was always late this afternoon and early this evening. To that extent nothing has changed. But this is NOT a big storm for us. Maybe we can squeeze out another inch or two some places another three like the north shore of eastern LI. WX/PT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Those areas have been over-performing for 2 years or more. I think this time will be no exception. When I say there's a good chance this could over perform I'm not referring to all locations. There are different forces at play here. You have the signs that the coastal will indirectly enhance the snowfall rates here and colder air will also squeeze out a little more moisture. But there is also a drier punch of air which will move in from the west and the clipper moving across the northern tier will be trying to kick this system out to the east. So we just have to see what forces win out. The heaviest precipitation on the guidance was always late this afternoon and early this evening. To that extent nothing has changed. But this is NOT a big storm for us. Maybe we can squeeze out another inch or two some places another three like the north shore of eastern LI. WX/PT Great explanation. I agree with localized exceptions, but more spread out throughout the area. A blossoming precious shield from coastal development usually has some nice localized banding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 11 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Those areas have been over-performing for 2 years or more. I think this time will be no exception. When I say there's a good chance this could over perform I'm not referring to all locations. There are different forces at play here. You have the signs that the coastal will indirectly enhance the snowfall rates here and colder air will also squeeze out a little more moisture. But there is also a drier punch of air which will move in from the west and the clipper moving across the northern tier will be trying to kick this system out to the east. So we just have to see what forces win out. The heaviest precipitation on the guidance was always late this afternoon and early this evening. To that extent nothing has changed. But this is NOT a big storm for us. Maybe we can squeeze out another inch or two some places another three like the north shore of eastern LI. WX/PT NW Suffolk seems to always seems to jackpot in nearly every storm. I think this will be no different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Radar starting to blossom in eastern PA-that's our snow-the stuff in S NJ will miss most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Assuming that’s rain on the south shore ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Nice little burst. Temp down to 32 and sticking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 New nams are not great-only 1 to maybe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, Brian5671 said: New nams are not great-only 1 to maybe 2 The classic last minute east trend, congrats eastern LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 58 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Southold (Cutchogue) and Montauk are snowing too per web cams: Cutchogue: https://www.suffolksecurity.com/live-osprey-webcam-north-fork-of-long-island Montauk: Montauk looks like white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: The classic last minute east trend, congrats eastern LI. I wouldn’t buy into that completely. It’s very rare for montauk to do better than western Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Seems like it's been going as planned... Was expecting around 3" personally and another 1.5-2.0 would get me there... Also total LE was around 0.35" and we've had about half that so not far off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 38 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: None. Most models have an additional 2" for NYC. Just light snow here, as it's been on and off for the past 4 hours or so with minimal accumulation. Mainly white rain along the shoreline too. Would take heavy snow in order to overperform the 2-4" that was expected Just enjoy whatever falls as this point. We’ve had snow falling for most of the last two days and people will see a total not anywhere between 3-6” for the two days. Great couple of events. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 It’s still snowing nicely. Snow on ground. Why are people complaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: For anyone who cares, from a snow standpoint this playoff game in Foxboro could be fun to watch toward the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Montauk is 33 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 10 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: The classic last minute east trend, congrats eastern LI. This is a nowcasting situation now. I've stopped looking at models 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, SnoSki14 said: This is a nowcasting situation now. I've stopped looking at models I only look at the HRRR during an event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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