Storm potential January 17th-18th

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, mob1 said:

...to this. Let's see if it continues to expand to our area. 

If the HRRR is right it will explode quickly between now and 4

[Wxoutlooksblog]

4 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Tonight will overperform IMO.

I think there's a good chance.

WX/PT

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I think there's a good chance.

WX/PT

What indicators could suggest this?

[Krs4Lfe]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

What indicators could suggest this?

None. Most models have an additional 2" for NYC. Just light snow here, as it's been on and off for the past 4 hours or so with minimal accumulation. Mainly white rain along the shoreline too. Would take heavy snow in order to overperform the 2-4" that was expected

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Tonight will overperform IMO.

Hop so-the HRRR is a bit east of my liking

[Dark Star]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

What indicators could suggest this?

Yeah, I was thinking several hours ago we could get an extra 3-5", but looks like precip forecasts have backed down?

[Brian5671]

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

None. Most models have an additional 2" for NYC. Just light snow here, as it's been on and off for the past 4 hours or so with minimal accumulation. Mainly white rain along the shoreline too. Would take heavy snow in order to overperform the 2-4" that was expected

for once i agree with you lol.   2-3 for most tonight-take it and run

[Wxoutlooksblog]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

What indicators could suggest this?

Radar, temperatures, and the HRRR model which has been a little faster moving elements than is actually happening but otherwise accurate.

WX/PT

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

What indicators could suggest this?

-6 850's area is one and HRRR guidance is another

[Winterweatherlover]

I think overperformer maybe for eastern areas like eastern LI and eastern CT. Everywhere else probably not. 

[Winterweatherlover]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

for once i agree with you lol.   2-3 for most tonight-take it and run

Honestly i'd be fine with 2-3 tonight on top of what we have. A bigger storm would be nice but with a cold week ahead a grassy snowpack of 5 inches or so is nice.

[ag3]

Cold 850s, night time, good snow growth, blossoming precip leaf.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I think overperformer maybe for eastern areas like eastern LI and eastern CT. Everywhere else probably not. 

Those areas have been over-performing for 2 years or more. I think this time will be no exception. When I say there's a good chance this could over perform I'm not referring to all locations. There are different forces at play here. You have the signs that the coastal will indirectly enhance the snowfall rates here and colder air will also squeeze out a little more moisture. But there is also a drier punch of air which will move in from the west and the clipper moving across the northern tier will be trying to kick this system out to the east. So we just have to see what forces win out. The heaviest precipitation on the guidance was always late this afternoon and early this evening. To that extent nothing has changed. But this is NOT a big storm for us. Maybe we can squeeze out another inch or two some places another three like the north shore of eastern LI.

WX/PT

[ag3]

4 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Those areas have been over-performing for 2 years or more. I think this time will be no exception. When I say there's a good chance this could over perform I'm not referring to all locations. There are different forces at play here. You have the signs that the coastal will indirectly enhance the snowfall rates here and colder air will also squeeze out a little more moisture. But there is also a drier punch of air which will move in from the west and the clipper moving across the northern tier will be trying to kick this system out to the east. So we just have to see what forces win out. The heaviest precipitation on the guidance was always late this afternoon and early this evening. To that extent nothing has changed. But this is NOT a big storm for us. Maybe we can squeeze out another inch or two some places another three like the north shore of eastern LI.

WX/PT

Great explanation. I agree with localized exceptions, but more spread out throughout the area. A blossoming precious shield from coastal development usually has some nice localized banding.

[Prue11]

11 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Those areas have been over-performing for 2 years or more. I think this time will be no exception. When I say there's a good chance this could over perform I'm not referring to all locations. There are different forces at play here. You have the signs that the coastal will indirectly enhance the snowfall rates here and colder air will also squeeze out a little more moisture. But there is also a drier punch of air which will move in from the west and the clipper moving across the northern tier will be trying to kick this system out to the east. So we just have to see what forces win out. The heaviest precipitation on the guidance was always late this afternoon and early this evening. To that extent nothing has changed. But this is NOT a big storm for us. Maybe we can squeeze out another inch or two some places another three like the north shore of eastern LI.

WX/PT

NW Suffolk seems to always seems to jackpot in nearly every storm. I think this will be no different 

[Brian5671]

Radar starting to blossom in eastern PA-that's our snow-the stuff in S NJ will miss most of us

[Prue11]

Assuming that’s rain on the south shore ?

[psv88]

Nice little burst. Temp down to 32 and sticking 

[Brian5671]

New nams are not great-only 1 to maybe 2

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

New nams are not great-only 1 to maybe 2

The classic last minute east trend, congrats eastern LI.

[Tatamy]

58 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Southold (Cutchogue) and Montauk are snowing too per web cams:

Cutchogue:

https://www.suffolksecurity.com/live-osprey-webcam-north-fork-of-long-island

 

Montauk:

 

 

 

Montauk looks like white rain.

[Prue11]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

The classic last minute east trend, congrats eastern LI.

I wouldn’t buy into that completely. It’s very rare for montauk to do better than western Suffolk 

[doncat]

Seems like it's been going as planned... Was expecting around 3" personally and another 1.5-2.0 would get me there... Also total LE was around 0.35" and we've had about half that so not far off.

[BoulderWX]

38 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

None. Most models have an additional 2" for NYC. Just light snow here, as it's been on and off for the past 4 hours or so with minimal accumulation. Mainly white rain along the shoreline too. Would take heavy snow in order to overperform the 2-4" that was expected

Just enjoy whatever falls as this point. We’ve had snow falling for most of the last two days and people will see a total not anywhere between 3-6” for the two days. Great couple of events. 

[psv88]

It’s still snowing nicely. Snow on ground. Why are people complaining 

[coastalplainsnowman]

22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

For anyone who cares, from a snow standpoint this playoff game in Foxboro could be fun to watch toward the end.

[wthrmn654]

Montauk is 33 right now 

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

The classic last minute east trend, congrats eastern LI.

This is a nowcasting situation now. I've stopped looking at models

[ag3]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

This is a nowcasting situation now. I've stopped looking at models

I only look at the HRRR during an event