Storm potential January 17th-18th

[MJO812]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Ratios are going to be lower than 10:1 tomorrow, but it looks good for an inch or so in the immediate NYC metro area, more in eastern Long Island. Highs are going to be in the mid-30’s even up here where I am tomorrow

Gfs is also west. We can get a few inches if it keeps coming west.

[RU848789]

Here's my take, fwiw. Looks like 2-4" N of 78/NW of 287 today (as per the WWA's) with maybe a slushy inch along 95 and nada SE of 95 due to warm temps. And with the significant moves NW for the GFS, NAM, NAM3km, RRFS, and finally the Euro, joining the already NW AIFS and AIGFS (and ignoring the paltry precip for the UK/ICON), it's looking like 2-4" from 95 to the coast with maybe 1-2" NW of 95 with an upside of 3-6" from 95 to the coast and a downside of 1-3" from 95 to the coast. Would like to see 12Z not backtrack to have higher confidence in the Sunday numbers. Now I'm getting excited.

[MJO812]

9 hours ago, Franklin0529 said:

It's always amped an usually wrong 

Gfs just followed and the euro

[SnoSki14]

Temperatures could make a big difference with regards to accumulation. I'm at 29F now, I see the city at 35-36 which is not good. 

Need 12z to hold or shift west otherwise 6z runs are more fluky than anything 

[BoulderWX]

7 hours ago, Tatamy said:

I would like to know where the 03z RAP went to party at.  

RAP and HRRR in their very long range show several more inches tomorrow for most of the forum. Time to watch how it all plays out. 

[jm1220]

Good luck for Sunday-it’ll be a decent event because I’m away lol. Hopefully between today and tomorrow something for everyone. 

[RU848789]

44 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Here's my take, fwiw. Looks like 2-4" N of 78/NW of 287 today (as per the WWA's) with maybe a slushy inch along 95 and nada SE of 95 due to warm temps. And with the significant moves NW for the GFS, NAM, NAM3km, RRFS, and finally the Euro, joining the already NW AIFS and AIGFS (and ignoring the paltry precip for the UK/ICON), it's looking like 2-4" from 95 to the coast with maybe 1-2" NW of 95 with an upside of 3-6" from 95 to the coast and a downside of 1-3" from 95 to the coast. Would like to see 12Z not backtrack to have higher confidence in the Sunday numbers. Now I'm getting excited.

FWIW, here is what the 6Z models are showing for Edison for Saturday (Kuchera, since it'll be 34-36F for most of the snow) and Sunday (10:1 ratio as it should be colder with temps in the 31-33F range). I did Edison, since I live there and it's a point on the Pivotal maps, plus they do reasonably represent what might be expected from about NB to NYC along 95 with a bit less towards Philly. The Saturday numbers are nada SE of 95 to the coast, while they're 1-2" greater for most models at the coast (north of Toms River; south of there, mixing becomes an issue). Let's see what 12Z brings.

 

Snowfall on Sat (Kuchera)/Sun (10:1 ratio)

Euro: 0.4"/1.9"

AIFS (Euro AI): 0.5"/2.8"

AIGFS: 0.5"/3.0"

GFS: 1.3" (is 1.7" at 10:1)/3.6"

NAM: 0.7"/4.1"

RGEM: 0.8"/2.6"

NAM3km: 0.3"/3.2"

RRFSA (new NAM): 0.1"/5.0" (but Kuchera shows 3.1" here - much larger deviation than for most models)

HRDPS: 0.6"/2.4"

UK: 1.0"/1.2"

ICON: 1.0"/0.6"

[gravitylover]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With the temperature now up to 36 in Central Park, only a trace of snow is the most likely outcome today. A coating is a lower probability.

 

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

If there is even snow in the air.

 

Good thing I already got some then

Around 4am it snowed for about 20 minutes and put down a fluffy .4. 

[Franklin0529]

45 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs just followed and the euro

Hopefully they keep coming west an not the inevitable shift back east

[WeatherGeek2025]

that looks like it's coming straight to the city and that precip may have some thundersnow

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

that looks like it's coming straight to the city and that precip may have some thundersnow

Hrrr dries it up until 12-1 pm so we'll see

[donsutherland1]

The 1/17 0z NBM forecast a 12z temperature of 34° for Central Park. The actual figure was 37°. With temperatures likely to run between 36°-38° when the main batch of precipitation arrives vs. the previously modeled 33°-35°, little or no snow accumulation is likely in and around New York City. The City's northern and western suburbs are in line for a coating to an inch of snow with the distant northern and western suburbs likely to see 1"-2" with some locally higher amounts. 

Much of the overnight guidance has shifted toward a solution of a closer coastal low. As a result, a period of accumulating snow with 1"-2" possible in and around New York City. Eastern Long Island into southeastern New England appear to likely to see 2"-4" with perhaps some higher amounts. There remains some uncertainty concerning the developing storm's track and rate of development.

Arctic air will begin to overspread the region on Monday and Monday night.

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

that looks like it's coming straight to the city and that precip may have some thundersnow

Sharp cutoff southwest to northeast currently Trenton NJ down to D.C. along Rt. 1 in Central NJ sky very dark to the southwest as its moving towards the northeast

[WeatherGeek2025]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 1/17 0z NBM forecast a 12z temperature of 34° for Central Park. The actual figure was 37°. With temperatures likely to run between 36°-38° when the main batch of precipitation arrives vs. the previously modeled 33°-35°, little or no snow accumulation is likely in and around New York City. The City's northern and western suburbs are in line for a coating to an inch of snow with the distant northern and western suburbs likely to see 1"-2" with some locally higher amounts. 

Much of the overnight guidance has shifted toward a solution of a closer coastal low. As a result, a period of accumulating snow with 1"-2" possible in and around New York City. Eastern Long Island into southeastern New England appear to likely to see 2"-4" with perhaps some higher amounts. There remains some uncertainty concerning the developing storm's track and rate of development.

Arctic air will begin to overspread the region on Monday and Monday night.

Central park may get a dusting out of this it's kinda warm for the city unless we wet bulb from that batch and it actually doesn't dry like storm lover said

 

exciting to see

[Stormlover74]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Central park may get a dusting out of this it's kinda warm for the city unless we wet bulb from that batch and it actually doesn't dry like storm lover said

 

exciting to see

It comes in pretty heavy after 1 even for the city after a start as rain. But yeah accumulations will be tough 

[SACRUS]

[Tatamy]

Light snow 27/22 Visibility 3 miles 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Mostly Virga in eastern NJ currently

[Tatamy]

Snowing hard to the west of Allentown as seen on traffic cams along I78.  Visibility’s there look to be 1/4 mile.  

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Snowing hard to the west of Allentown as seen on traffic cams along I78.  Visibility’s there look to be 1/4 mile.  

very little eastern movement of this blob of precip to our west shutting out anyone east of Trenton to Baltimore - will it start shifting east ? I suspect tomorrows precip shield will also have the same straight line cutoff 

[the_other_guy]

NBC tells me is 38F in city

If you guys get accumulating snow in the mid day hours from this, buy a lotto ticket

 

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

NBC tells me is 38F in city

If you guys get accumulating snow in the mid day hours from this, buy a lotto ticket

 

 

It can  snow during the day in the winter time especially on colder surfaces.

[Tatamy]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

very little eastern movement of this blob of precip to our west shutting out anyone east of Trenton to Baltimore - will it start shifting east ?

Watch the models.  It’s not moving much to the east currently.  What has my attention is how heavily it is snowing just west of me.  My visibility has dropped to 1/2 mile with moderate snow.

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

very little eastern movement of this blob of precip to our west shutting out anyone east of Trenton to Baltimore - will it start shifting east ?

Not til late morning 

[geeter1]

Heavy snow here. Just north of Allentown...

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

Watch the models.  It’s not moving much to the east currently.  What has my attention is how heavily it is snowing just west of me.  My visibility has dropped to 1/2 mile with moderate snow.

I don't look at models during nowcasting plus you are in a different world out there with your increased elevation - thats why this forum region is too large here

[Stormlover74]

Hrrr looks interesting for tomorrow. Starts in the morning snows a few hours then tapers off but redevelops later in the day and into the evening

[MJO812]

[snywx]

25 w/ flurries 

0.8” otg

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hrrr looks interesting for tomorrow. Starts in the morning snows a few hours then tapers off but redevelops later in the day and into the evening

You get the overrunning and then precip from coastal.