MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Lack of posts with no new pages since last night says it all lol Everyone gave up .Thats why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gfs came west This may be the run that wakes up the NYC media and the NWS, if we see it duplicated at 12Z. I don't think those sources trust the much snowier AI models yet and with the Euro/GFS having not been very snowy for the last many runs, they're admittedly skeptical. Fascinating battle, really. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Sharp cutoffs are problematic for widespread snows, especially with dry air in place. It'll be possible to go from 2-3 inches to zilch in twenty miles or less. Low expectations. It would be nice to have an inch or two of snow to go with the bitter cold air. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 HRRR has 1-3 inches for NYC tomorrow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: This may be the run that wakes up the NYC media and the NWS, if we see it duplicated at 12Z. I don't think those sources trust the much snowier AI models yet and with the Euro/GFS having not been very snowy for the last many runs, they're admittedly skeptical. Fascinating battle, really. I suspect that it will take a change on the ECMWF to shake up the current thinking. The 6z GFS might be a plausible "best case" (if one likes snow). None of last night's EPS members had anything like it, though. A single member had 3" in NYC. The 0z RGEM had something similar though it backed off somewhat at 6z. There's just enough support on the guidance to suggest a snowier solution remains possible. Maybe the AI models will come out on top. Hopefully, over time, the AI models will improve their skill and become an important forecasting tool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Ai gfs got better Surface Temps are problematic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Surface Temps are problematic 6 hours before this frame . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 38 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Lack of posts with no new pages since last night says it all lol Much of the forum stands to see anywhere between 1-4” between the two systems. It’s something. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 27 minutes ago, Picard said: . It would be nice to have an inch or two of snow to go with the bitter cold air. More would be ok but that would just be a nuisance combined with the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 12z NAM is going all in for interior areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 17 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 12z NAM is going all in for interior areas. nam has got to be the worst model there is. No wonder they're discontinuing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Nam looks like a miss for Sunday. Way south. Weird. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: nam has got to be the worst model there is. No wonder they're discontinuing it Nothing is showing a few inches for tomorrow like the nam in inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 20 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 12z NAM is going all in for interior areas. 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nothing is showing a few inches for tomorrow like the nam in inland areas. really ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 24 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nothing is showing a few inches for tomorrow like the nam in inland areas. Check out the other mesoscale models for tomorrow- it’s not the only one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Rgem has an inch or two tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 ICON is a whiff for Sunday. Came a bit west from where it was, but still a whiff. Let's see what the other models have to say. At some point, I don't think they can keep showing a whiff if this thing is real, we're 48 hours left. I'd hate to be the NWS with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Reggie is a light snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Actually Reggie is a bit more robust at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, wxman said: Actually Reggie is a bit more robust at 12z. 2-4 for NYC with slightly more to the and south from both events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 2-4 for NYC with slightly more to the and south from both events. Reggie just wont quit It's the best of the bad models showing a hit of consequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, wxman said: Reggie just wont quit It's the best of the bad models showing a hit of consequence. reggie was the only model that sniffed out the surprise 4-7" storm that just hit the detroit. i think it has some merit in this game. euro is garbage, gfs worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 39 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Check out the other mesoscale models for tomorrow- it’s not the only one. Yup they bumped up esp. inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 9 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: reggie was the only model that sniffed out the surprise 4-7" storm that just hit the detroit. i think it has some merit in this game. euro is garbage, gfs worse. The RGEM also nailed that snow/sleet fiasco 3 weeks ago. It’s the best of the short range models IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Gfs might be coming west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 41 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: ICON is a whiff for Sunday. Came a bit west from where it was, but still a whiff. Let's see what the other models have to say. At some point, I don't think they can keep showing a whiff if this thing is real, we're 48 hours left. I'd hate to be the NWS with this one. NWS going with 20% chance of snow on Sunday in their point and click forecast for NYC (Manhattan) Goes up to 30% in Brooklyn and through Nassau. Jumps up to 40% chance over eastern Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs might be coming west Initially but flatter. Skim job. Gfs AI is a good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Initially but flatter. Skim job. Gfs AI is a good hit Where are you accessing the GFS AI (aside from Pivotal)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, wxman said: Where are you accessing the GFS AI (aside from Pivotal)? Stormvista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, MJO812 said: Stormvista Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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