Storm potential January 17th-18th

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Lack of posts with no new pages since last night says it all lol

Everyone gave up .Thats why.

[RU848789]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs came west

This may be the run that wakes up the NYC media and the NWS, if we see it duplicated at 12Z.  I don't think those sources trust the much snowier AI models yet and with the Euro/GFS having not been very snowy for the last many runs, they're admittedly skeptical.  Fascinating battle, really.  

[Picard]

Sharp cutoffs are problematic for widespread snows, especially with dry air in place.  It'll be possible to go from 2-3 inches to zilch in twenty miles or less.  Low expectations.  It would be nice to have an inch or two of snow to go with the bitter cold air.

[MJO812]

HRRR has 1-3 inches for NYC tomorrow

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

This may be the run that wakes up the NYC media and the NWS, if we see it duplicated at 12Z.  I don't think those sources trust the much snowier AI models yet and with the Euro/GFS having not been very snowy for the last many runs, they're admittedly skeptical.  Fascinating battle, really.  

I suspect that it will take a change on the ECMWF to shake up the current thinking. The 6z GFS might be a plausible "best case" (if one likes snow). None of last night's EPS members had anything like it, though. A single member had 3" in NYC. The 0z RGEM had something similar though it backed off somewhat at 6z. There's just enough support on the guidance to suggest a snowier solution remains possible.

Maybe the AI models will come out on top. Hopefully, over time, the AI models will improve their skill and become an important forecasting tool.

[Tatamy]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Ai gfs got better 

Surface Temps are problematic 

 

[Jt17]

Surface Temps are problematic 
 

6 hours before this frame


.

[BoulderWX]

38 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Lack of posts with no new pages since last night says it all lol

Much of the forum stands to see anywhere between 1-4” between the two systems. It’s something. 

[gravitylover]

27 minutes ago, Picard said:

.  It would be nice to have an inch or two of snow to go with the bitter cold air.

More would be ok but that would just be a nuisance combined with the cold. 

[Tatamy]

12z NAM is going all in for interior areas.

[WeatherGeek2025]

17 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

12z NAM is going all in for interior areas.

nam has got to be the worst model there is. No wonder they're discontinuing it

[MJO812]

Nam looks like a miss for Sunday. Way south. Weird.

[MJO812]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

nam has got to be the worst model there is. No wonder they're discontinuing it

Nothing is showing a few inches for tomorrow like the nam in inland areas.

[NEG NAO]

20 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

12z NAM is going all in for interior areas.

 

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nothing is showing a few inches for tomorrow like the nam in inland areas.

really ?

[Tatamy]

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nothing is showing a few inches for tomorrow like the nam in inland areas.

Check out the other mesoscale models for tomorrow- it’s not the only one.  

[Stormlover74]

Rgem has an inch or two tomorrow

[Krs4Lfe]

ICON is a whiff for Sunday. Came a bit west from where it was, but still a whiff. Let's see what the other models have to say. At some point, I don't think they can keep showing a whiff if this thing is real, we're 48 hours left. I'd hate to be the NWS with this one. 

[MJO812]

Reggie is a light snowfall 

[wxman]

Actually Reggie is a bit more robust at 12z.

[MJO812]

Just now, wxman said:

Actually Reggie is a bit more robust at 12z.

2-4 for NYC with slightly more to the and south from both events.

[wxman]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

2-4 for NYC with slightly more to the and south from both events.

Reggie just wont quit  It's the best of the bad models showing a hit of consequence.  

[vegan_edible]

Just now, wxman said:

Reggie just wont quit  It's the best of the bad models showing a hit of consequence.  

reggie was the only model that sniffed out the surprise 4-7" storm that just hit the detroit. i think it has some merit in this game. euro is garbage, gfs worse.

[hudsonvalley21]

39 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Check out the other mesoscale models for tomorrow- it’s not the only one.  

Yup they bumped up esp. inland.

[LVblizzard]

9 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

reggie was the only model that sniffed out the surprise 4-7" storm that just hit the detroit. i think it has some merit in this game. euro is garbage, gfs worse.

The RGEM also nailed that snow/sleet fiasco 3 weeks ago. It’s the best of the short range models IMO.

[MJO812]

Gfs might be coming west

[weathermedic]

41 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

ICON is a whiff for Sunday. Came a bit west from where it was, but still a whiff. Let's see what the other models have to say. At some point, I don't think they can keep showing a whiff if this thing is real, we're 48 hours left. I'd hate to be the NWS with this one. 

NWS going with 20% chance of snow on Sunday in their point and click forecast for NYC (Manhattan) Goes up to 30% in Brooklyn and through Nassau. Jumps up to 40% chance over eastern Suffolk.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs might be coming west

Initially but flatter. Skim job.

Gfs AI is a good hit

[wxman]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Initially but flatter. Skim job.

Gfs AI is a good hit

Where are you accessing the GFS AI (aside from Pivotal)?

[MJO812]

Just now, wxman said:

Where are you accessing the GFS AI (aside from Pivotal)?

Stormvista

[wxman]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Stormvista

Thanks!