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January Discobs 2026


George BM
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The models seem to all be coming into agreement that the warm front is going to set up to our south on Saturday.

The good news:  this puts most of our area in a really good location for overrunning, and we should get a fairly decent widespread soaking.

The bad news:  this will keep the warm sector south the DC/Baltimore metro, and you can kiss a warm Saturday goodbye.    Areas well south of DC might still get warm, and *maybe* we all break into the warm air briefly during the evening, but it right now looks like most of us will have a much chillier Saturday daytime than we were expecting.

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52 minutes ago, high risk said:

The models seem to all be coming into agreement that the warm front is going to set up to our south on Saturday.

The good news:  this puts most of our area in a really good location for overrunning, and we should get a fairly decent widespread soaking.

The bad news:  this will keep the warm sector south the DC/Baltimore metro, and you can kiss a warm Saturday goodbye.    Areas well south of DC might still get warm, and *maybe* we all break into the warm air briefly during the evening, but it right now looks like most of us will have a much chillier Saturday daytime than we were expecting.

Excellent

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28 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Not gonna lie the past two days have been a nice reprise from our actually cold December and November. In a weird way my body feels like it’s late February because it’s been so long since December snow. 

I feel likes it's spring because i experienced 100" of snow last week and temps in the single digits on the Tug Hill. My brain thinks it's spring now lol

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If people cared like with snow, people would be panicking at the 18z hrrr’s precip totals for the weekend 

just for fun... if it was 10-1 snow @ DCA:

euro: 17"
HRDPS: 13.2"
CMC: 13"
UKIE: 9.8"
3k: 8.9"
ICON:. 7.9"
GFS: 7.7"
HRRR: 3.6"


Might be worth returning to in 2 days :raining:

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39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If people cared like with snow, people would be panicking at the 18z hrrr’s precip totals for the weekend 

            FWIW, the HRRR has a much weaker and more veered 850 mb wind field than most of the other guidance.      The images below show a massive difference in the intensity of the overrunning.

 

image.thumb.gif.3f339dd24e20f8bda1580ff3dc6170cb.gifimage.thumb.gif.774b2db96cf34feca6246497e960f020.gif

 

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22 minutes ago, high risk said:

  Continuing what it was showing earlier, the NAM Nest still likes Sunday afternoon for some of us getting a burst of convective snow.  The CAPE field is non-zero, and other mesoscale models hint at the same idea:

image.thumb.gif.0d9534bfd160f16e979349976398e83c.gif

I missed the squall as I was out of town, so I’m in for this one.

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22 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z 3K NAM: and what happened to that 60-70 degree weather forecasted before Sunday????

        It has been off the table for us for a couple of days now.   The warm front is going to stay south of us, so the 60s and 70s will make it into southern VA and part of the lower Eastern Shore, but we'll be stuck in the 40s, maybe getting to the low 50s Saturday evening with a little mixing.   The good news is that the further south position of the warm front puts us in a good position for significant rain.

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