Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[yotaman]

I am not ready for allergy season nor grass mowing. Weeds are already starting to grow against the house. Ughhh

[BornAgain13]

12z GFS for next week continues to trend south. Shows a decent Snowstorm for southern VA north.. UK has showed it several runs in a row and so has the Euro AI

[olafminesaw]

Check out the consistency from the Euro AI

[NorthHillsWx]

6 hours ago, yotaman said:

I am not ready for allergy season nor grass mowing. Weeds are already starting to grow against the house. Ughhh

They are growing here too. Saw on the news last week before the cool down we registered pine pollen for first time this year which is early 

[SUNYGRAD]

Maybe of interest to some-

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL132025_Melissa.pdf.  Upgraded to 190 mph.

[BornAgain13]

Last 3 runs of GEFS for next week

[Daniel Boone]

14 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Last 3 runs of GEFS for next week

Hopefully it does come further South. Be nice to go out with a Bang for many. The Ohio Valley and Northeast has had plenty enough. 

[wncsnow]

Ridge is too strong for VA south. 

[NorthHillsWx]

The heat after first week of March seems legit this time. Just a monster SER cranking. Probably perfect to get everything growing before a random killer freeze in April 

[olafminesaw]

26 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Ridge is too strong for VA south. 

Nasty ice if anything. Bleh

[SouthWake33]

The heat after first week of March seems legit this time. Just a monster SER cranking. Probably perfect to get everything growing before a random killer freeze in April 

Have been debating a trip to the beach over the kids spring break week of 3/16. If it looks warm then I’m sold!


.

[NorthHillsWx]

19 minutes ago, SouthWake33 said:

Have been debating a trip to the beach over the kids spring break week of 3/16. If it looks warm then I’m sold!


.

I’ll probably do the same. March warmth is welcome in my book as fishing season cranks up 

[BooneWX]

Perfectly fine rolling into thunderstorm season. I spent too much time outside this past weekend to long for arctic cold anymore. 

[JoshM]

0z GFS wants to give favored CAD areas in NC and upstate a krispy kreme glaze on the 3rd 

 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

It’s almost definitely overdone but seeing mid-upper 80s in that march 7-13 timeframe is nuts. It’s not just a day too it’s like a week. Could definitely be an early season beach trip. Ridgemageddon

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s almost definitely overdone but seeing mid-upper 80s in that march 7-13 timeframe is nuts. It’s not just a day too it’s like a week. Could definitely be an early season beach trip. Ridgemageddon

Many winters in the SE we have to contend with the SER. 
This winter has been much different. 
Yes it did show itself right around Christmas but the winter as a whole we have not seen the SER very much. 
Also it seams  the maps show a blowtorch coming only to reverse or relaxes by the time the period gets here. 

[SUNYGRAD]

[SUNYGRAD]

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said:

El Niño is just what the doc ordered for much of the SE. But its main wet effects would probably not be til Nov based on history. We’ll see as no two Nino’s are the same. In the meantime more normal rainfall will hopefully show up in March.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Many winters in the SE we have to contend with the SER. 
This winter has been much different. 
Yes it did show itself right around Christmas but the winter as a whole we have not seen the SER very much. 
Also it seams  the maps show a blowtorch coming only to reverse or relaxes by the time the period gets here. 

It coming it march is OK with me, we had a cold winter. March I’m ok with warmups

[NorthHillsWx]

22 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said:

Getting solid relief in NC today 

[NorthHillsWx]

We’re likely to finish February AN rain IMBY. I’d have to check but I’m pretty sure July was the last month we were not below normal for rainfall, so it’s been 6 straight months BN here

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, SUNYGRAD said:

Also have to differentiate between short term and long term drought. Long term drought isn't a huge deal around here because we don't have the issues with limited supply the West has. It seems our short term drought is mostly gone after today in NC.