Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[JoshM]

Southeast ridge said, "Remember me?!"

 

[suzook]

6 hours ago, JoshM said:

Southeast ridge said, "Remember me?!"

 

Bring it. Sick of the cold. Ok, now flame me. 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

7 hours ago, JoshM said:

Southeast ridge said, "Remember me?!"

 

LET'S GOOOO!!!! Im still on for a late season storm, but im ready to thaw out completely for now.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Late month 

[eyewall]

2 hours ago, suzook said:

Bring it. Sick of the cold. Ok, now flame me. 

I am ready for severe season since we couldn't get the job done in a near perfect setup this winter IMBY. We aren't going to make up for that this year so might as well move on.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

To torch for Valentine’s weekend or no torch; that is the question 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

February 15 

[suzook]

Seems like this drastic cold snap we were supposed to get mid month seems to be fading. Sure we will get some cold days thrown in, maybe 3 or 4 days below normal after the 15th, but it seems like a normal February to me. Some warmth, some cold. Dare I say winter is over for GA???

[Upstate Tiger]

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

To torch for Valentine’s weekend or no torch; that is the question 

Yep looks like we warm up next week.  I will be in Charleston so looking forward to some warmth.  Don't sleep on Valentine's weekend, a little blocking and get rid of that upper midwest low and you have a big winter storm in the SE.  Looks like a strat split coming up that could make March very cold in the U.S., at least until mid-month.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

February 10

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, suzook said:

Seems like this drastic cold snap we were supposed to get mid month seems to be fading. Sure we will get some cold days thrown in, maybe 3 or 4 days below normal after the 15th, but it seems like a normal February to me. Some warmth, some cold. Dare I say winter is over for GA???

 What’s your definition of “winter is over”?

 I’m going to enjoy the next 7 days of no torch with ups and downs, low dewpoints, and the progged highest temp of only ~69. The period should avg a bit BN  and this should mean great walking wx. Afterward, I’m hoping any possible torch (say upper 70s to low 80s) is fairly tame and shortlived. Hopefully there’d still be lots of lows down in the 40s.

 Looking further ahead: although the Euro Weeklies maintain a -PNA and don’t have a -NAO/-AO, they cool it off to NN last week of Feb. 

 Winter’s always my favorite season even if not cold, mainly because I enjoy the lack of bugs and humidity as well as the big swings that other seasons typically don’t have.

[olafminesaw]

Around Valentine's Day features a cutter on all models. Seems like some potential for CAD/messy ice situation depending on track/ridge placement. Also could feature borderline severe if the low tracks across New England instead of PA

[suzook]

14 hours ago, GaWx said:

 What’s your definition of “winter is over”?

 I’m going to enjoy the next 7 days of no torch with ups and downs, low dewpoints, and the progged highest temp of only ~69. The period should avg a bit BN  and this should mean great walking wx. Afterward, I’m hoping any possible torch (say upper 70s to low 80s) is fairly tame and shortlived. Hopefully there’d still be lots of lows down in the 40s.

 Looking further ahead: although the Euro Weeklies maintain a -PNA and don’t have a -NAO/-AO, they cool it off to NN last week of Feb. 

 Winter’s always my favorite season even if not cold, mainly because I enjoy the lack of bugs and humidity as well as the big swings that other seasons typically don’t have.

I'm originally from the north, so my definition of winter is what we had the last couple of weeks. Way below normal. So yes, I am a bit skewed 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Believe it or not….

[eyewall]

I am pretty sure other than tonight's near non event that we are likely done for the year. I know that stings for our Wake County folks who want a makeup event for the dry slot. After the warm up we get into much more difficult territory for a big hit. Obviously it certainly would not be the 20:1  type ratios. It would likely be a paste job (which is good for photos but can cause a lot more issues). I am not sure when RDU will get another shot at 6 or better but it won't be anytime soon (possibly years). I do hope we get some decent severe chances at least in the Spring. 

[Maggie Valley Steve]

16 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I am pretty sure other than tonight's near non event that we are likely done for the year. I know that stings for our Wake County folks who want a makeup event for the dry slot. After the warm up we get into much more difficult territory for a big hit. Obviously it certainly would not be the 20:1  type ratios. It would likely be a paste job (which is good for photos but can cause a lot more issues). I am not sure when RDU will get another shot at 6 or better but it won't be anytime soon (possibly years). I do hope we get some decent severe chances at least in the Spring. 

Exactly how many times are going to post the same exact thing Jeremy? It gets tiresome.

[eyewall]

2 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

Exactly how many times are going to post the same exact thing Jeremy? It gets tiresome.

Maybe a few more times. 

 

[wxdawg10]

23 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I am pretty sure other than tonight's near non event that we are likely done for the year. I know that stings for our Wake County folks who want a makeup event for the dry slot. After the warm up we get into much more difficult territory for a big hit. Obviously it certainly would not be the 20:1  type ratios. It would likely be a paste job (which is good for photos but can cause a lot more issues). I am not sure when RDU will get another shot at 6 or better but it won't be anytime soon (possibly years). I do hope we get some decent severe chances at least in the Spring. 

Being pretty sure or confident on any long term weather pattern is an oxymoron. 

Knowing how complex these things are, statements like these serve no purpose and are not productive.

 

[eyewall]

3 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

Being pretty sure or confident on any long term weather pattern is an oxymoron. 

Knowing how complex these things are, statements like these serve no purpose and are not productive.

 

If we do get another round of winter the MJO forecast points to around the 21st or after so we shall see 

[SnowGoose69]

17 minutes ago, eyewall said:

If we do get another round of winter the MJO forecast points to around the 21st or after so we shall see 

Yeah looks late month to me.  Hopefully soil temps are cold enough that stretch from 2/9-2/14 does not do what it did last year and cause massive pre-mature blooming, we had numerous people in SC/GA lose crops etc when it got cold again in late February.  I think the difference this time is soil temps won't rebound as well, last year 1/25-2/2 was decently warm which allowed the baseline soil temps to get up enough that the big warm spell just after that opened everything up.

[eyewall]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah looks late month to me.  Hopefully soil temps are cold enough that stretch from 2/9-2/14 does not do what it did last year and cause massive pre-mature blooming, we had numerous people in SC/GA lose crops etc when it got cold again in late February.  I think the difference this time is soil temps won't rebound as well, last year 1/25-2/2 was decently warm which allowed the baseline soil temps to get up enough that the big warm spell just after that opened everything up.

Soil temps ahead of the warmup

[Orange county]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah looks late month to me.  Hopefully soil temps are cold enough that stretch from 2/9-2/14 does not do what it did last year and cause massive pre-mature blooming, we had numerous people in SC/GA lose crops etc when it got cold again in late February.  I think the difference this time is soil temps won't rebound as well, last year 1/25-2/2 was decently warm which allowed the baseline soil temps to get up enough that the big warm spell just after that opened everything up.

My Central NC daffodils started sprouting in this past December's late warm up They are still alive-about 5 inches

Despite the cold ,ice, snow the last couple weeks I have several tulip sprouts this morning

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

I am pretty sure other than tonight's near non event that we are likely done for the year. I know that stings for our Wake County folks who want a makeup event for the dry slot. After the warm up we get into much more difficult territory for a big hit. Obviously it certainly would not be the 20:1  type ratios. It would likely be a paste job (which is good for photos but can cause a lot more issues). I am not sure when RDU will get another shot at 6 or better but it won't be anytime soon (possibly years). I do hope we get some decent severe chances at least in the Spring. 

Although highly unlikely in any one winter, RDU’s largest concentration of 6”+ snowfalls since 1950 over any 6-7 day period isn’t til way out during the interval 2/26-3/3 with 5 of the 21 RDU storms. Also, 3 of the 16 GSO 6”+ storms since 1950 that weren’t also at RDU were during a portion of the same period.

[Orange county]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

Although highly unlikely in any one winter, RDU’s largest concentration of 6”+ snowfalls since 1950 over any 6-7 day period isn’t til way out during the interval 2/26-3/3 with 5 of the 21 RDU storms. Also, 3 of the 16 GSO 6”+ storms since 1950 that weren’t also at RDU were during a portion of the same period.

Good point

Of course they typically happen at 35 degrees. maybe 33

SLOP

[NorthHillsWx]

Go home GFS, you’re drunk 

[Upstate Tiger]

GFS says happy Valentines Day snow lovers. 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

23 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Go home GFS, you’re drunk 

Maybe not..... This is our year. How many time have we seen long range torches get muted or replaced by cold? Happening a lot this winter as we get closer to verification time. It just wants to be cold in the east.

[Upstate Tiger]

CMC has the same general setup but doesn’t have the high placement like GFS so wintry is further north.