Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[Upstate Tiger]

10 hours ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Brief warm up then trough comes back towards V day with decent setup via some blocking and possibly a 50/50.  MJO looks like it may be in phase 6 during that time as well and was outside the circle per Euro forecast that I saw.  Models may catch on if things synoptic outlook remains favorable.

Yep.  Looking like a return to winter in the east around or just after Valentine’s Day for a at least a couple of weeks.  Still think this winter holds at least one more SE winter storm.  

[eyewall]

10 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Yep.  Looking like a return to winter in the east around or just after Valentine’s Day for a at least a couple of weeks.  Still think this winter holds at least one more SE winter storm.  

We will be fighting the sun angle then but it is certainly possible. For me it has to be 6+ or bust after the dry slot. 

[olafminesaw]

The 6z GFS made a big change up top. Not far from something halfway decent

[WXNewton]

Someone's about to get NAM'ed start the thread! At this point a lot of us are playing with house money so let it Ride!! Also, FV3 is not quite cold enough but does have some heavier banding type precip building in the foothills. If the run were to continue I would think some eastern folks might get a little interesting!i

[olafminesaw]

We just got RGEMed

[BornAgain13]

RGEM lit it up for Wednesday/Thursday lol

[olafminesaw]

It always seems like this would happen growing up in Northern Virginia. We'd get a big snow and then a few days later a sneaky little system that uptrended at the last minute to drop a few inches

[olafminesaw]

GFS has the Wake county screw zone so it must be correct 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

GFS has the Wake county screw zone so it must be correct 

It’s the southern Wake screw zone to be specific.  It’s been that way a long time.  I literally made sure that I lived far enough north to keep my sanity!  No regrets!!

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

It’s the southern Wake screw zone to be specific.  It’s been that way a long time.  I literally made sure that I lived far enough north to keep my sanity!  No regrets!!

Although all of Wake was a screw zone this time for the most park lol. 

[eyewall]

9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

GFS has the Wake county screw zone so it must be correct 

If it isn't 6+ I don't want it anyway but none the less too many boundary layer issues and cold chasing with this one. The GFS has been horrendous with every event.

[WXNewton]

12z GFS headed in the right direction once again!

[BornAgain13]

12z CMC really likes the mid week system

[Upstate Tiger]

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

We will be fighting the sun angle then but it is certainly possible. For me it has to be 6+ or bust after the dry slot. 

Hopefully we can get one without any screw zone ala President's Day 1 - 1979.  Still one of my all time favorites with temps in the teens, howling wind, and 14" in the upstate IMBY.  It did warm up rather quickly the following week but still took several days to melt.

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

If it isn't 6+ I don't want it anyway but none the less too many boundary layer issues and cold chasing with this one. The GFS has been horrendous with every event.

I don't disagree with where this is going. Everything has to go perfectly. I think up along the VA border may do okay with this event, especially if trends towards a more amped system continue

[Stormpc]

12z CMC is a hit along the border of North Carolina and Va