Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[BornAgain13]

18z NAM doesnt go out far enough but the orientation of the energy looks good as far as I can tell. Someone with more expertise can correct me. 

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z NAM doesnt go out far enough but the orientation of the energy looks good as far as I can tell. Someone with more expertise can correct me. 

I thought more in line with the Euro than the GFS, but somewhere in between. Not worth dissecting the 84 hr NAM though

[Upstate Tiger]

Out at the very end of the NAM.  Notoriously unreliable at this range but here it is...

[SnowDawg]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

I thought more in line with the Euro than the GFS, but somewhere in between. Not worth dissecting the 84 hr NAM though

Just what I was going to say. Orientation is more similar to the Euro but it is a good bit further west. Ultimately it would’ve been the next few frames that really would’ve mattered with how it rounds the base of the trough.

[NorthHillsWx]

The first rule of weather club: do not dissect hour 84 NAM. The second rule of weather club: do not dissect hour 84 NAM

[BornAgain13]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

The first rule of weather club: do not dissect hour 84 NAM. The second rule of weather club: do not dissect hour 84 NAM

Haha very true! Was just looking to see how the energy angled coming down. I know its gonna change. 

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The first rule of weather club: do not dissect hour 84 NAM. The second rule of weather club: do not dissect hour 84 NAM

Third the of weather club: toss the 84 hour NAM in the garbage and wait for the RGEM to run

[olafminesaw]

At 84 the RGEM looks good with respect to the trough orientation, but again, not quite in range 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Brick Tamland]

GFS is running.

[Brick Tamland]

GFS singing I won't back down.

[Brick Tamland]

[Brick Tamland]

[eyewall]

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Most on the forum would take this and walk away.

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Check, please.

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Most on the forum would take this and walk away.

That is for sure. I wish we were looking at this with a day to go. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

NAM tease

[Brick Tamland]

Really reminds me of that storm last Jan 21-22 when the Euro finally shifted the precip NW in line with the GFS. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Really reminds me of that storm last Jan 21-22 when the Euro finally shifted the precip NW in line with the GFS. 

I remember that Brick.  It was a good memory.

[NorthHillsWx]

9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Really reminds me of that storm last Jan 21-22 when the Euro finally shifted the precip NW in line with the GFS. 

That storm but it lasting 2-3 more hours would make me happy for the rest of the season

[WXNewton]

24 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

NAM tease

This is going to be the first piece of energy coming down that reinforces the cold air on Saturday into Sunday. The energy in discussion is still towards the West diving down behind this first piece.

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

1 minute ago, WXNewton said:

This is going to be the first piece of energy coming down that reinforces the cold air on Saturday into Sunday. The energy in discussion is still towards the West diving down behind this first piece.

Good to distinguish for people.

[lilj4425]

34 minutes ago, eyewall said:

How much of this snow total can be cut due to evaporational cooling, warm air advection, and thunderstorms along the gulf coast? 

[olafminesaw]

Boom big increase from 12z

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Boom big increase from 12z

This is due to a significant shift NW of the GEFS mean from 12Z to 18Z. More shifts later are most likely as of current thinking.

[SnowDawg]

OP was a tick towards the Euro at H5 but the GEFS continued to move NW. Will have to dive into the members more to see whether or not that’s just being skewed by some amplified outliers.

[Upstate Tiger]

Just now, SnowDawg said:

OP was a tick towards the Euro at H5 but the GEFS continued to move NW. Will have to dive into the members more to see whether or not that’s just being skewed by some amplified outliers.

Yep.  I actually liked the H5 better on the 12Z but still a good run. 

[buckeyefan1]

Where and how the ridge and blocking sets up for Sunday is everything ladies and gents 

What we want it to look like

What we don't want it to look like

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

OP was a tick towards the Euro at H5 but the GEFS continued to move NW. Will have to dive into the members more to see whether or not that’s just being skewed by some amplified outliers.

It doesn’t look to me like it was due to a skew from amped members. This was a typical notable shift NW in the avg track.