BornAgain13 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 18z NAM doesnt go out far enough but the orientation of the energy looks good as far as I can tell. Someone with more expertise can correct me. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z NAM doesnt go out far enough but the orientation of the energy looks good as far as I can tell. Someone with more expertise can correct me. I thought more in line with the Euro than the GFS, but somewhere in between. Not worth dissecting the 84 hr NAM though 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Out at the very end of the NAM. Notoriously unreliable at this range but here it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, olafminesaw said: I thought more in line with the Euro than the GFS, but somewhere in between. Not worth dissecting the 84 hr NAM though Just what I was going to say. Orientation is more similar to the Euro but it is a good bit further west. Ultimately it would’ve been the next few frames that really would’ve mattered with how it rounds the base of the trough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The first rule of weather club: do not dissect hour 84 NAM. The second rule of weather club: do not dissect hour 84 NAM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, NorthHillsWx said: The first rule of weather club: do not dissect hour 84 NAM. The second rule of weather club: do not dissect hour 84 NAM Haha very true! Was just looking to see how the energy angled coming down. I know its gonna change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: The first rule of weather club: do not dissect hour 84 NAM. The second rule of weather club: do not dissect hour 84 NAM Third the of weather club: toss the 84 hour NAM in the garbage and wait for the RGEM to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago At 84 the RGEM looks good with respect to the trough orientation, but again, not quite in range 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GFS is running. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GFS singing I won't back down. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Most on the forum would take this and walk away. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, eyewall said: Check, please. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said: Most on the forum would take this and walk away. That is for sure. I wish we were looking at this with a day to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago NAM tease 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Really reminds me of that storm last Jan 21-22 when the Euro finally shifted the precip NW in line with the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Really reminds me of that storm last Jan 21-22 when the Euro finally shifted the precip NW in line with the GFS. I remember that Brick. It was a good memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Really reminds me of that storm last Jan 21-22 when the Euro finally shifted the precip NW in line with the GFS. That storm but it lasting 2-3 more hours would make me happy for the rest of the season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted 57 minutes ago Share Posted 57 minutes ago 24 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: NAM tease This is going to be the first piece of energy coming down that reinforces the cold air on Saturday into Sunday. The energy in discussion is still towards the West diving down behind this first piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted 55 minutes ago Share Posted 55 minutes ago 1 minute ago, WXNewton said: This is going to be the first piece of energy coming down that reinforces the cold air on Saturday into Sunday. The energy in discussion is still towards the West diving down behind this first piece. Good to distinguish for people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted 52 minutes ago Share Posted 52 minutes ago 34 minutes ago, eyewall said: How much of this snow total can be cut due to evaporational cooling, warm air advection, and thunderstorms along the gulf coast? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 51 minutes ago Share Posted 51 minutes ago Boom big increase from 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 48 minutes ago Share Posted 48 minutes ago 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: Boom big increase from 12z This is due to a significant shift NW of the GEFS mean from 12Z to 18Z. More shifts later are most likely as of current thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted 46 minutes ago Share Posted 46 minutes ago OP was a tick towards the Euro at H5 but the GEFS continued to move NW. Will have to dive into the members more to see whether or not that’s just being skewed by some amplified outliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted 44 minutes ago Share Posted 44 minutes ago Just now, SnowDawg said: OP was a tick towards the Euro at H5 but the GEFS continued to move NW. Will have to dive into the members more to see whether or not that’s just being skewed by some amplified outliers. Yep. I actually liked the H5 better on the 12Z but still a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted 44 minutes ago Share Posted 44 minutes ago Where and how the ridge and blocking sets up for Sunday is everything ladies and gents What we want it to look like What we don't want it to look like 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 40 minutes ago Share Posted 40 minutes ago 4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: OP was a tick towards the Euro at H5 but the GEFS continued to move NW. Will have to dive into the members more to see whether or not that’s just being skewed by some amplified outliers. It doesn’t look to me like it was due to a skew from amped members. This was a typical notable shift NW in the avg track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now