AlexD1990 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: I guess now we know how Jan 25, 2000 happened and December 2000 didn't. Very very slight changes mean huge differences. This will probably come down to the wire, especially for eastern areas. agree. considering the range on snowfall for MBY is 0.02(euro) to 36"+(GFS), id say there are two distinct camps, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Appreciate the insight. Trying to follow here, is the advection lobe you are referring to the feature over the Midwest? I see the issues in SE Canada, just want to understand the first part of your post. Thanks! Yes, the last frame of that forecast trend loop shows a local vorticity maximum over Southern Michigan that becomes the primary later. The AI models and GFS are mostly favoring the far western portion of the axis instead. Sloppy as it is, the EC has slowly been heading that way since the 00Z run. If it mostly consolidates on the far end (west) of the trough axis then that gives the entire system considerably more room to develop. 14 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, csnavywx said: Yes, the last frame of that forecast trend loop shows a local vorticity maximum over Southern Michigan that becomes the primary later. The AI models and GFS are mostly favoring the far western portion of the axis instead. Sloppy as it is, the EC has slowly been heading that way since the 00Z run. If it mostly consolidates on the far end (west) of the trough axis then that gives the entire system considerably more room to develop. Are we close to something? Isn’t there exponential growth regarding how quickly the shortwave tilts negative, e.g. if it tilts negative 6 hours earlier it goes from OTS to I-95 blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Yes, the last frame of that forecast trend loop shows a local vorticity maximum over Southern Michigan that becomes the primary later. The AI models and GFS are mostly favoring the far western portion of the axis instead. Sloppy as it is, the EC has slowly been heading that way since the 00Z run. If it mostly consolidates on the far end (west) of the trough axis then that gives the entire system considerably more room to develop. So is that what it was doing at 6z yesterday morning before it lost it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 7 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: agree. considering the range on snowfall for MBY is 0.02(euro) to 36"+(GFS), id say there are two distinct camps, lol Its should probably end up a split so I would plan on 12-18 as a floor. That’s what I’m seeing right now after three boxes of pizza rolls, and two glasses of Jack Daniels. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I like the "in it to win it" some people have. Even in discouraging times like now, it is motivating LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 6 minutes ago, Climate175 said: I like the "in it to win it" some people have. Even in discouraging times like now, it is motivating LOL. It’s just not that far from a big storm for us, no reason to jump ship completely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Its should probably end up a split so I would plan on 12-18 as a floor. That’s what I’m seeing right now after three boxes of pizza rolls, and two glasses of Jack Daniels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 It's easier to track a potential fail when we just had a pretty unique storm that has left us feeling like deep winter. Those of us not in the SE part of the forum would be jumping off cliffs if we hadn't scored this past weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Hopefully some random normal snowstorm will show up. We can't possible go 360 hours with no snow. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hopefully some random normal snowstorm will show up. We can't possible go 360 hours with no snow. lol You new here? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 6 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: It’s just not that far from a big storm for us, no reason to jump ship completely. Very true. So close, yet still not quite there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: You new here? the lol didn't give away the sarcasm? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowciopathic Snow Bro Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 The Kalshi prediciton market model says no big snow before end of month. DCA is the respresentative obs station, so good luck to all of the betting folks with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 23 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Its should probably end up a split so I would plan on 12-18 as a floor. That’s what I’m seeing right now after three boxes of pizza rolls, and two glasses of Jack Daniels. Oh Bristow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hopefully some random normal snowstorm will show up. We can't possible go 360 hours with no snow. lol Bruh we've gone 360 weeks with no snow....we can go hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, Snowciopathic Snow Bro said: The Kalshi prediciton market model says no big snow before end of month. DCA is the respresentative obs station, so good luck to all of the betting folks with that. TBF, even in the most optimistic models, snow doesn't really hit the ground till after the turn of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowciopathic Snow Bro Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, Nomz said: TBF, even in the most optimistic models, snow doesn't really hit the ground till after the turn of the month I'm curious when they'll initialize the new contract for February. Should be some fireworks there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, Nomz said: TBF, even in the most optimistic models, snow doesn't really hit the ground till after the turn of the month WTF, is this like a polymarket to trade weather forecasting? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 31 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: So is that what it was doing at 6z yesterday morning before it lost it? Partially, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I’m getting “GFS life” tatted on my lower stomach. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 35 minutes ago, bncho said: Are we close to something? Isn’t there exponential growth regarding how quickly the shortwave tilts negative, e.g. if it tilts negative 6 hours earlier it goes from OTS to I-95 blizzard? Highly non-linear cutoff here. Modeling is almost certainly underdispersed atm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowciopathic Snow Bro Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 8 minutes ago, IronTy said: WTF, is this like a polymarket to trade weather forecasting? Yup. Of course, nothing could go wrong forecasting snow totals for DCA using the GFS and betting money on that, right? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 WB EURO/ AI maps; this will be a complete failure of the model if it snows west of the Bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just checked the mean on the EPS 12z ....its actually a big improvement from the 0z (dont have access to the 6z) as some have said there are a handful 4-6 members that are likely skewing the mean a bit from being further west and even a touch north.....also notice 2 clusters that are considerable west and another that are northwest of the mean....i think this trends somewhat west the next few runs.....how much remains to be seen.....if I were on the coast I would still be quite optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, Snowciopathic Snow Bro said: Yup. Of course, nothing could go wrong forecasting snow totals for DCA using the GFS and betting money on that, right? Bet the opposite, free money glitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Thought it’d be today, but… Perhaps it'll be tomorrow when the most volatile piece, the TPV, gets sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajb Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I mean no doubt the odds are low, but 64 (or however many the Euro has) ensemble members hardly probe the entire space of perturbations. I wouldn’t call it a complete model failure if we get some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 35 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Its should probably end up a split so I would plan on 12-18 as a floor. That’s what I’m seeing right now after three boxes of pizza rolls, and two glasses of Jack Daniels. On the Euro and GFS at 500 MB, what, if anything is north of the storm's evolution which eventually may push it to the east or northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, bncho said: Perhaps it'll be tomorrow when the most volatile piece, the TPV, gets sampled. TBF, LWX has been saying Wednesday as the day for a couple days now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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