SnowDreamer Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, IronTy said: I feel like it's statistically unlikely that the GFS can just be wrong every single time this winter. Eventually it has to luck its way into a correct solution. Hopefully this is it. Ringing endorsement right here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 OK that was fun but on to the real models.....what are we seeing on the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, EHoffman said: Ok but it just laid 4 feet in salisbury so it's pretty unlikely this will be the correct solution. I'd settle for three feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 You could see it coming instead height lines all backing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: BTW the DGZ is amazing on the GFS, unlike the past storm this would be a legit several thousand thick feet DGZ JFC imagine what the dendrites would look like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 An inch in Cumberland and over a foot in DC. Even more of a reason to hope the GFS is right. The panhandle gets screwed and we win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 minutes ago, Nomz said: son lol thats near Mardela Springs, MD. See yall in April, i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, Shad said: OK that was fun but on to the real models.....what are we seeing on the CMC Its been a slow bleed the wrong way since 12z yesterday but still should get it done for at least the Eastern shore if not more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, snowfan said: Holy fook! I'll see you all at Dewey Beer Co. On Saturday. lol the entire state will shut down before you can get there. there would be literal panic in the streets with a forecast like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 CMC is further east with the shortwave and a touch more progressive than 0z run. Not far off from the gfs. Just needed to go negative and boom. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 minutes ago, IronTy said: I feel like it's statistically unlikely that the GFS can just be wrong every single time this winter. Eventually it has to luck its way into a correct solution. Hopefully this is it. GFS about to say hold my beer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Wait, GFS is back??? 1 9 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 12z CMC at 96h somewhat less amplified and further east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, stormtracker said: Wait, GFS is back??? If you consider 14 inches for dc back…..yes it’s back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Gfs is on its own. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: If you consider 14 inches for dc back…..yes it’s back. don't tell him SBY got 4' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 i do not think i have ever seen a model run that extreme since the days of the DGEX for 2016. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 14 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: The wind is something else as well 9 minutes ago, Nomz said: son 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Closer 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, Ephesians2 said: 12z CMC at 96h somewhat less amplified and further east 102h- closed off low over east TN Looks like it's about 50 miles east across the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Army Mike Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 We need NoGaps back.. always a good model to know if models are too far east… weenie book page 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I think the AFD is by far the best and most succent analysis of this setup possible: KEY MESSAGE 3...Monitoring the potential for a coastal system this weekend. Very favorable storm patten in terms of analogs for big snows in the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. A 50/50 low & -NAO, Idaho Ridge, blocking over the Hudson Bay, and trough moving into the east Pac. Couldn`t ask for a better synoptic setup, but the formation of a storm remains in the details of this highly sensitive pattern. Guidance continues to show a Miller A type Nor`easter (it has been a while for one to form, let alone show up in model guidance). While the ceiling is certainly high for this storm, there is equally if not higher odds it just skirts out to see as indicated by the latest 00Z guidance and ensembles. Future runs will have to be seen if this is a trend or noise. How the TPV evolves will be one of the biggest factors on if this storm comes to fruition or not and impacts land. Regardless, expect fluctuations over the next day or two until the pattern is better sampled as associated energy is onshore across the western US. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 CMC a step back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: If you consider 14 inches for dc back…..yes it’s back. I'd lock that mfer up right now and wouldn't gamble. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 We back? I love this forum. I’ve been here since EasternWX and every hit or miss follows the same trajectory of hope and despair and hope again, many times over. I’m just glad we’re tracking anything at all. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 6 minutes ago, Shad said: OK that was fun but on to the real models.....what are we seeing on the CMC That did something similar last night. Onto something maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Now watch we have the GFS as the only model in our camp. I hope not, because it'll just lead us on to hang on longer than we should. Come on Euro......if ever we needed you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, Shad said: CMC a step back Yeah buts it’s still like a few noise level shifts from a HECS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Salisbury would be dug out in June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 50 minutes ago, wxmeddler said: Two more days of “ Check back in every 12 hours” mode till we close the book for the I-95. Ocean City maybe a day after that. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, stormtracker said: Now watch we have the GFS as the only model in our camp. I hope not, because it'll just lead us on to hang on longer than we should. Come on Euro......if ever we needed you The GFS has heard us all making fun of it and now it’s just taunting us in an act of petty revenge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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