January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

Just now, Disc said:

Yep, doesn't bring it all across like the Euro, but certainly a step in the right direction. I call that a win.

Definitely.   Especially given that we got every solution on the table, from cutter to suppressed.  

[SnowenOutThere]

Quick hit. Not great but a big improvement both H5 and surface.

[TSSN+]

Better each run. 
 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Have Randy start it

I could do it.  I don't mind the superstition BS.   If I create it and it dies, just call me stormTrasher.  har har har

[SnowenOutThere]

Also you know its a real threat when we got a bunch of mets posting in the thread!

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

i have a chart i use--it works pretty well

204 out--pure fantasy. Weenie stuff

192 hours--it becomes a threat

132 hours-it becomes a legit threat

84-132 hours. the graveyward for storms. Many storms never survive this window

48-84 hours.  fantasy Nam Range. Minor shifts start happening with big implications. This is where we go from 29 and snow to 33 and rain but the the storm is still there. Just shifted north or south

48-24 hours. Minor adjustments...can still get screwed if we are on the edge

24-0 hours--you want to see good last minute trends here. Could be the difference between 6 inches and 3 inches

0 hours-GFS and NAM range

This is a decent chart.

[Eskimo Joe]

12z ICON would be 3" - 6" of cold powder on a weekend.

[clskinsfan]

RGEM was going to be less suppressed as well. Just judging off of the position of the PV. We'll see how that translates to the Canadian. 

[bncho]

12z Suite Scoreboard

>4" vs <4" scoreboard (Euro = 5, Euro AI = 5, GFS AI = 4, GFS = 3, CMC = 2, UKMET = 1, ICON = 1)
DC: 0-1, less than 4" leads
Baltimore: 0 - 1, less than 4" leads

 

[Warm Nose]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I could do it.  I don't mind the superstition BS.   If I create it and it dies, just call me stormTrasher.  har har har

We can just cancel it to pull the storm back if it starts to go wrong anyhow 

[Bob Chill]

ICON is more of a tn valley overrunner vs a developed storm. Not much of a circulation or developed surface/850 low. AI models are far different in that respect. 

[Ji]

This is a decent chart.

Thanks man! We are in that graveyard window now but I think we might survive!

[bncho]

poor ralph doesn't know about the scoreboard system but knows about gooning 

[mahk_webstah]

34 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I followed the storm up in New England this past weekend.  Both AIs were extremely persistent with bringing snow into southern New England when most guidance, including the euro were pretty far out to sea.  Good study for our area.

 

hell they even named their storm thread “rise of the machines” lol

As someone who lived in Philly for many years, I think you should be getting pretty excited about this storm. You know it’ll probably trend north at least some extent, but not enough to hurt you guys. For us in NH we’re probably on the northern fringe, but these things do tend to come north. I grew up just south of Dover and if I lived there right now, I’d be very excited.

[TowsonWeather]

2 hours ago, bncho said:

There are two possible outcomes for this event:
1. A major ice storm affects southern CAD zones, and DC and points north get a major snowstorm. (Euro AI, UKMET, GFS AI, Euro)
2. A major snowstorm affects southern CAD zones, and DC and points north receive little to nothing. (GFS, CMC)

What do we know of each model?
The Euro AI is often locked onto an event inside D5 and is often deadly inside that range, but can be locked onto an incorrect solution, only to fold 48 hours before the event (credit to @high risk). It also often has a QPF bias. 
The Euro often tends to overamp low pressure systems, but it also tends to hold back energy in the Baja. It also often has a QPF bias.
The GFS tends to show more suppressive, progressive solutions, and often tends to verify NW.
The CMC has a major cold bias, and tends to overdo Arctic HPs. It also, generally, has a suppressive bias, but it is less prominent than the GFS.
The UKMET tends to struggle on thermals, often being too warm. It also tends to overamp systems.
Since the GFS AI is new, I don't know much about it.

Although more operational models (that I'm aware of; I have no idea what Google's model outputs) support the northern solution, ensembles have been trending colder and snowier towards the southern solution over the last 24-36 hours. This is why I am skeptical to declare victory for the northern solution just yet.

It would be easy to go with the Euro AI, just because that has been the best performing operational this winter inside D5. However, a major caveat to this is that the upcoming HP may be so anomalous that it hasn't received enough training data to output the correct solution, just due to its inexperience (credit to @WxUSAF). This should be a good test for the AI Euro.

Now, it's too early to declare anything, but I am leaning towards the northern solution. 1050 HPs are extremely rare and often overdone in setups like these (credit @Terpeast), and I don't think it'll be able to suppress it enough. However, if a ultra-strong HP does pan out, the Euro AI may have a greater probability of being wrong.

Stay tuned...

Not to be a nit-picker, but I don't think it's accurate to say those are the only two possible outcomes for this system - not at these lead times. 

Like you, I obviously hope the AI models have the right idea - and the ensemble support across the whole range of models provides good reason for optimism. The next 24 hours should be pretty telling. Not that we'll have things nailed down, per se, but we should have a much firmer grasp about how realistic this threat is (and for whom).

[SnowenOutThere]

Most important run of the GFS so far for 2026 running. Big difference I'm looking for is around the hour 100 mark with the handling of shortwave over the Pac NW that either cuts off our southern stream energy or kicks/phases it eastward. The 6z difference in Euro vs GFS shows it nicely. GFS on top Euro on bottom.

[bncho]

Just now, TowsonWeather said:

Not to be a nit-picker, but I don't think it's accurate to say those are the only two possible outcomes for this system - not at these lead times. 

Like you, I obviously hope the AI models have the right idea - and the ensemble support across the whole range of models provides good reason for optimism. The next 24 hours should be pretty telling. Not that we'll have things nailed down, per se, but we should have a much firmer grasp about how realistic this threat is (and for whom).

That's a fair point. I would say it's probably more of a gradient in that respect, and separating them into two different categories is likely an overgeneralization. Thanks for pointing it out!

[anotherman]

Most important run of the GFS so far for 2026 running. Big difference I'm looking for is around the hour 100 mark with the handling of shortwave over the Pac NW that either cuts off our southern stream energy or kicks/phases it eastward. The 6z difference in Euro vs GFS shows it nicely. GFS on top Euro on bottom.

GFS might be more suppressive than EURO, based on that map. Confluence is further south.

[TSSN+]

Just now, anotherman said:

GFS might be more suppressive, based on that map. Confluence is further south.

Old runs bud. Was showing what we are looking for coming up. 

[SnowenOutThere]

So far no major changes through hour 60. Going to need to watch the NS interaction coming up. 

 

Edit: Take this back as the Southern vort is slightly more eastward and slightly more north which cant hurt us.

[stormtracker]

Nothing too different.  just noise level feature placements at 72

[bncho]

AI GFS looks pretty similar at hr 90.

[anotherman]

Old runs bud. Was showing what we are looking for coming up. 

Don’t notice it was 6Z.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

AI GFS looks pretty similar at hr 90.

ok, at 102 it looks like the baja low is stsaying back a little bit more? might help it show a more snowy solution instead of icy

[Ralph Wiggum]

AI GFS seems more suppressed thru 108

[bncho]

Yeah, at hr 120 that baja low is having a hard time coming east

[Ralph Wiggum]

AI has the confluence farther S and the Baja ull held back an asshair or 2

[NorthArlington101]

GFS AI is gonna be a lot colder for us this go

[TSSN+]

Just now, bncho said:

Yeah, at hr 120 that baja low is having a hard time coming east

? This looks good to me 

 

[stormtracker]

We gotta figure out a system here.  I can't figure out if yall are talking about AI GFS or doing pbp for GFS.   But anyway...GFS similar, but that s/w out west seems like it's not gonna come out again..we shall see.