January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

27 minutes ago, Disc said:

18z euro nice and amped. Faster too. Snow already falling across much of the area by mid-day Saturday.

 

Back edge in New Mexico is a good thing 

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Back edge in New Mexico is a good thing 

Not according to Ji

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Back edge in New Mexico is a good thing 

I’m sure Ji will find a way to see it on radar regardless.

Edit: damn it got ninjaed on a 1 minute reply 

[Eskimo Joe]

33 minutes ago, Disc said:

18z euro nice and amped. Faster too. Snow already falling across much of the area by mid-day Saturday.

 

Wow that -and- it's already at HR144? 

[Eskimo Joe]

Folks. . .

 

 

[bncho]

genuinely what the fuck

[bncho]

omg 

[Steve25]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Folks. . .

 

 

Was I wrong to read this as him in support of the more suppressed look? 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Steve25 said:

Was I wrong to read this as him in support of the more suppressed look? 

I read this the same way...and I believe that would be his bias anyway

[Solution Man]

28 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So wait.  What you’re saying is this thing may be at 120hours tomm this time?   What a minute hold the fuck up….

Happy MLK. Just left former Virginia Gov L. Douglas Wilder 95th birthday party. He is amazing. He actually met MLK.

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

genuinely what the fuck

This can’t be real, I have built two tents looking at this. 

[benjammin]

Not according to Ji

To be fair, Ji does know his backends...

Sent from my MNP1095 using Tapatalk

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

genuinely what the fuck

I don't understand the question 

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

omg 

It's very nice to see the ensembles putting out high numbers like that!

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

omg 

A 72-hr ensemble MEAN of 6" - 8" from Mason-Dixon to the tidewater of VA. Wow.

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

omg 

btw if this were kuchera all the snow totals would be more even... around 9-12" for the DMV

[aldie 22]

Notice when Ji goes silent we get plenty of digital blue?

[Bob Chill]

13 minutes ago, bncho said:

btw if this were kuchera all the snow totals would be more even... around 9-12" for the DMV

Its very uncommon for a decent sized storm to be higher than 10:1 in the MA even when it's cold. There can be periods of high ratio snow most commonly on the backside or an upper level low pass but the front side is usually 10:1 or less. It's humid here and that matters. Getting pristine snow growth for long durations is also hard for multiple reasons. We always get periods of plates and mangled flakes even when it's a clean all snow event. 

Imo, sticking to the basic 10:1 ratio when the ground and column is cold is the most accurate.  Lower when something is flawed. A 15:1 or higher ratio storm is a unicorn in these parts 

[Terpeast]

12/19/09 was a relatively high ratio storm, no mixing no dry slots. 12-14:1 thereabouts. 

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro AI laughs at the gfs lol

Looks like a double barreled system?

[winter_warlock]

I'm hoping the good Dr.King can use some of his divine influence tomorrow on the day we celebrate his birthday! and help the Gfs see the same thing the AI models are seeing!!

[winter_warlock]

This is me when l look at the GFS model 

 

[caviman2201]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Its very uncommon for a decent sized storm to be higher than 10:1 in the MA even when it's cold. There can be periods of high ratio snow most commonly on the backside or an upper level low pass but the front side is usually 10:1 or less. It's humid here and that matters. Getting pristine snow growth for long durations is also hard for multiple reasons. We always get periods of plates and mangled flakes even when it's a clean all snow event. 

Imo, sticking to the basic 10:1 ratio when the ground and column is cold is the most accurate.  Lower when something is flawed. A 15:1 or higher ratio storm is a unicorn in these parts 

I hear this kind of thinking a lot and don't doubt it because I don't think I've ever seen Kuchera verify here... my question is why don't the models correctly model this? In theory shouldn't Kuchera go below 10:1 in our area due to the factors you indicated? I feel like Kuchera is always higher than 10:1

[Steve25]

3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

I'm hoping the good Dr.King can use some of his divine influence tomorrow on the day we celebrate his birthday! and help the Gfs see the same thing the AI models are seeing!!

Let’s hope the 10 year anniversary of 2016 this Thursday/Friday brings us some good mojo too! 

[winter_warlock]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

12/19/09 was a relatively high ratio storm, no mixing no dry slots. 12-14:1 thereabouts. 

Yes it was i got 17.5 Inches at my house in Baltimore county MD 

[mitchnick]

I didn't see the 144hrs Eps snowfall map, so...

There's actually a noticeable jump north from 138hrs and 148hrs too.

[bncho]

This is the general flavor of the storm i'm getting right now, if anybody wants to correct me they can go ahead.

Scenario 1 — The Mid-Atlantic is impacted by a major winter storm that drops 4"+ of snow. (likely)
Scenario 2 — The Mid-Atlantic is too far north to receive the brunt of the system and receives <4" of snow. (possible)
Scenario 3 — The Mid-Atlantic is impacted by a major winter storm that briefly starts as snow before changing over to sleet and freezing rain. (unlikely)
Scenario 4 — The Mid-Atlantic is too far north to receive anything impacts from the system and receives no snow. (very unlikely)

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

This is me when l look at the GFS model 

 

That’s my guy

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

This is the general flavor of the storm i'm getting right now, if anybody wants to correct me they can go ahead.

Scenario 1 — The Mid-Atlantic is impacted by a major winter storm that drops 4"+ of snow. (likely)
Scenario 2 — The Mid-Atlantic is too far north to receive the brunt of the system and receives <4" of snow. (possible)
Scenario 3 — The Mid-Atlantic is impacted by a major winter storm that briefly starts as snow before changing over to sleet and freezing rain. (unlikely)
Scenario 4 — The Mid-Atlantic is too far north to receive anything impacts from the system and receives no snow. (very unlikely)

This man using likely 6 days out.  Bold. 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

This man using likely 6 days out.  Bold. 

likely is like 30% chance, it's relative to the time scale