January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

That 500mb vort still passes over us or just to the south. Thats the thing we need to hold. If it passes north of us, we’re out. 

Yeah, until Monday 0z, that's all I'm going to take from these runs.  We still in the game

[H2O]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I mean, I'll take it but...maybe GFS going toward the Euro...I dunno man.   Not much else to take one way or the other.  Just not a fan of how we got here

[Ji]

lol we stepped back from 2 feet to 18 inches

I’m gonna shock everyone… I am so desperate for snow that I’ll take 4 inches

[batmanbrad]

kind of a weird snowmap for our area, but it will do for now.  Until it changes next run.

[Terpeast]

Just now, baltosquid said:

That would be an insane storm as depicted. VERY windy.

Verbatim its a blizzard. I’ll take the jackpot imby, but we all know what a jack 5 days out really means lol

[bncho]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

That would be an insane storm as depicted. VERY windy.

blizzard

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

That 500mb vort still passes over us or just to the south. Thats the thing we need to hold. If it passes north of us, we’re out. 

What are your thoughts on when we might start seeing runs with actual importance (for lack of a better word) behind them? With this setup I personally am thinking itll be within cam range where we will actually get useful information on what may occur. 

[Ji]

What I haven’t seen a a while is a rain to snow storm. Would be interesting. I remember one of these back when I was in middle school like 20 plus years ago lol. Was raining at school then turned to a 6” snow storm. 

There was a wild one in March 1994 I think lol

[bncho]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What are your thoughts on when we might start seeing runs with actual importance (for lack of a better word) behind them? With this setup I personally am thinking itll be within cam range where we will actually get useful information on what may occur. 

The fact that the euro runs at 2.5x of the GFS might help it detect things the GFS isn't seeing, but I would agree with the fact that we won't know much until 72 hours or less.

[mitchnick]

Storm 1 is moving out fast so maybe 2 will have more time and space.

[Ji]

We take and we become besties again

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What are your thoughts on when we might start seeing runs with actual importance (for lack of a better word) behind them? With this setup I personally am thinking itll be within cam range where we will actually get useful information on what may occur. 

In this case… 48 hrs or even less. Today’s model runs are a perfect butterfly effect case study of how tiny changes upstream can change everything for us

[Hank Scorpio]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Verbatim its a blizzard. I’ll take the jackpot imby, but we all know what a jack 5 days out really means lol

I can almost guarantee we jackpot, simply because my wife and I are on baby watch and that's how these things go. A blizzard baby would make for cool memories, even if it did create some logistical issues for us haha

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Storm 1 is moving out fast so maybe 2 will have more time andxspace.

Looks far more consolidated out west so far. Just need it to not hold energy back and we might be looking at another hit. 

[CAPE]

Neat run, but hard to imagine it ends up anything like this. LP over the mid bay with sn++ DC to Annapolis then 3 hours later precip dies as it redevelops well offshore lol.

[LeesburgWx]

If I can get a blizzard and a foot plus, who TF needs 2 feet? I know who…

[winter_warlock]

Well I was gonna buy a snowblower, but I'm afraid if I do it will jinx us so I'll hold off on it for now lol

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Terpeast said:

In this case… 48 hrs or even less. Today’s model runs are a perfect butterfly effect case study of how tiny changes upstream can change everything for us

So what I'm hearing is we start the thread now, watch the storm trend away from us, and then restart the thread at HRRR range and have the reverse bust of the century. On a serious note what is there to even look for on the map when its so chaotic. I feel like I can examine simple setup but no idea on how to even approach what factors cause a storm like this to amplify. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, Hank Scorpio said:

I can almost guarantee we jackpot, simply because my wife and I are on baby watch and that's how these things go. A blizzard baby would make for cool memories, even if it did create some logistical issues for us haha

Congratulations! May your baby be perfectly healthy and wish your wife a healthy recovery. My son was just born this past Dec 5th, and we drove through the snowfall to get there… on untreated roads. Was fun if not a bit nerve wracking, but no major logistical issues.

[bncho]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

So what I'm hearing is we start the thread now, watch the storm trend away from us, and then restart the thread at HRRR range and have the reverse bust of the century. On a serious note what is there to even look for on the map when its so chaotic. I feel like I can examine simple setup but no idea on how to even approach what factors cause a storm like this to amplify. 

Has a reverse March 2001 ever happened?

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Has a reverse March 2001 ever happened?

January 25, 2000. Modeling has improved significantly since then. The odds of a bust of both of those magnitudes today is much lower.

[NorthArlington101]

snowing at 186 for storm 2 - snow stretching almost down to the gulf coast in Alabama

[Ji]

January 25, 2000

We’re due

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I can almost guarantee we jackpot, simply because my wife and I are on baby watch and that's how these things go. A blizzard baby would make for cool memories, even if it did create some logistical issues for us haha

Wow congrats bro!!!!

[CAPE]

Cape Storm.. looking interesting

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Well I was gonna buy a snowblower, but I'm afraid if I do it will jinx us so I'll hold off on it for now lol

I'm going to put my snowblower away for the winter tomorrow. 

Reverse psychology and shit  lol

[SnowenOutThere]

Whole different look up top for the window after the 16th. Seems to work out for us (or at least CAPE) but is a different shortwave interaction that leads to it occurring. Def won't know what happens with this one for a bit. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, CAPE said:

Cape Storm.. looking interesting

Indeed.  sooo close again

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

January 25, 2000. Modeling has improved significantly. The odds of a bust of both of those magnitudes today is much lower today.

What happened then? It's been mentioned a few times but I'm not sure what the premise was for that storm.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Cape Storm.. looking interesting

It’s not much of anything