January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[AlexD1990]

2 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I guess now we know how Jan 25, 2000 happened and December 2000 didn't. Very very slight changes mean huge differences. This will probably come down to the wire, especially for eastern areas.

agree. considering the range on snowfall for MBY is 0.02(euro) to 36"+(GFS), id say there are two distinct camps, lol

[csnavywx]

2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Appreciate the insight. Trying to follow here, is the advection lobe you are referring to the feature over the Midwest? I see the issues in SE Canada, just want to understand the first part of your post. Thanks! 

Yes, the last frame of that forecast trend loop shows a local vorticity maximum over Southern Michigan that becomes the primary later. The AI models and GFS are mostly favoring the far western portion of the axis instead. Sloppy as it is, the EC has slowly been heading that way since the 00Z run. If it mostly consolidates on the far end (west) of the trough axis then that gives the entire system considerably more room to develop.

[bncho]

Just now, csnavywx said:

Yes, the last frame of that forecast trend loop shows a local vorticity maximum over Southern Michigan that becomes the primary later. The AI models and GFS are mostly favoring the far western portion of the axis instead. Sloppy as it is, the EC has slowly been heading that way since the 00Z run. If it mostly consolidates on the far end (west) of the trough axis then that gives the entire system considerably more room to develop.

Are we close to something? Isn’t there exponential growth regarding how quickly the shortwave tilts negative, e.g. if it tilts negative 6 hours earlier it goes from OTS to I-95 blizzard?

[LeesburgWx]

4 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Yes, the last frame of that forecast trend loop shows a local vorticity maximum over Southern Michigan that becomes the primary later. The AI models and GFS are mostly favoring the far western portion of the axis instead. Sloppy as it is, the EC has slowly been heading that way since the 00Z run. If it mostly consolidates on the far end (west) of the trough axis then that gives the entire system considerably more room to develop.

So is that what it was doing at 6z yesterday morning before it lost it?

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

agree. considering the range on snowfall for MBY is 0.02(euro) to 36"+(GFS), id say there are two distinct camps, lol

Its should probably end up a split so I would plan on 12-18 as a floor.  That’s what I’m seeing right now after three boxes of pizza rolls, and two glasses of Jack Daniels.

[Climate175]

I like the "in it to win it" some people have. Even in discouraging times like now, it is motivating LOL.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6 minutes ago, Climate175 said:

I like the "in it to win it" some people have. Even in discouraging times like now, it is motivating LOL.

It’s just not that far from a big storm for us, no reason to jump ship completely. 

[AlexD1990]

7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Its should probably end up a split so I would plan on 12-18 as a floor.  That’s what I’m seeing right now after three boxes of pizza rolls, and two glasses of Jack Daniels.

[mattie g]

It's easier to track a potential fail when we just had a pretty unique storm that has left us feeling like deep winter. Those of us not in the SE part of the forum would be jumping off cliffs if we hadn't scored this past weekend.

[stormtracker]

Hopefully some random normal snowstorm will show up.  We can't possible go 360 hours with no snow.

lol

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hopefully some random normal snowstorm will show up.  We can't possible go 360 hours with no snow.

lol

You new here? 

[Climate175]

6 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

It’s just not that far from a big storm for us, no reason to jump ship completely. 

Very true. So close, yet still not quite there. 

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

You new here? 

the lol didn't give away the sarcasm?

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

The Kalshi prediciton market model says no big snow before end of month.  DCA is the respresentative obs station, so good luck to all of the betting folks with that.

[Wonderdog]

23 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Its should probably end up a split so I would plan on 12-18 as a floor.  That’s what I’m seeing right now after three boxes of pizza rolls, and two glasses of Jack Daniels.

Oh Bristow.

[IronTy]

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hopefully some random normal snowstorm will show up.  We can't possible go 360 hours with no snow.

lol

Bruh we've gone 360 weeks with no snow....we can go hours.   

[Nomz]

Just now, Snowciopathic Snow Bro said:

The Kalshi prediciton market model says no big snow before end of month.  DCA is the respresentative obs station, so good luck to all of the betting folks with that.

TBF, even in the most optimistic models, snow doesn't really hit the ground till after the turn of the month

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

TBF, even in the most optimistic models, snow doesn't really hit the ground till after the turn of the month

I'm curious when they'll initialize the new contract for February.  Should be some fireworks there.

[IronTy]

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

TBF, even in the most optimistic models, snow doesn't really hit the ground till after the turn of the month

WTF, is this like a polymarket to trade weather forecasting?

[csnavywx]

31 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

So is that what it was doing at 6z yesterday morning before it lost it?

Partially, yes.

[Benjamn3]

I’m getting “GFS life” tatted on my lower stomach. 

[csnavywx]

35 minutes ago, bncho said:

Are we close to something? Isn’t there exponential growth regarding how quickly the shortwave tilts negative, e.g. if it tilts negative 6 hours earlier it goes from OTS to I-95 blizzard?

Highly non-linear cutoff here. Modeling is almost certainly underdispersed atm.

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

8 minutes ago, IronTy said:

WTF, is this like a polymarket to trade weather forecasting?

Yup.  Of course, nothing could go wrong forecasting snow totals for DCA using the GFS and betting money on that, right?

[Weather Will]

WB EURO/ AI maps; this will be a complete failure of the model if it snows west of the Bay.

[Shad]

Just checked the mean on the EPS 12z ....its actually a big improvement from the 0z  (dont have access to the 6z)  as some have said there are a handful 4-6 members that are likely skewing the mean a bit from being further west and even a touch north.....also notice 2 clusters that are considerable west and another that are northwest of the mean....i think this trends somewhat west the next few runs.....how much remains to be seen.....if I were on the coast I would still be quite optimistic

[AmericanWxFreak]

2 minutes ago, Snowciopathic Snow Bro said:

Yup.  Of course, nothing could go wrong forecasting snow totals for DCA using the GFS and betting money on that, right?

Bet the opposite, free money glitch. 

[bncho]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Thought it’d be today, but…

Perhaps it'll be tomorrow when the most volatile piece, the TPV, gets sampled.

[Ajb]

I mean no doubt the odds are low, but 64 (or however many the Euro has) ensemble members hardly probe the entire space of perturbations. I wouldn’t call it a complete model failure if we get some flakes. 

[Wonderdog]

35 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Its should probably end up a split so I would plan on 12-18 as a floor.  That’s what I’m seeing right now after three boxes of pizza rolls, and two glasses of Jack Daniels.

On the Euro and GFS at 500 MB, what, if anything is north of the storm's evolution which eventually may push it to the east or northeast?

[Nomz]

Just now, bncho said:

Perhaps it'll be tomorrow when the most volatile piece, the TPV, gets sampled.

TBF, LWX has been saying Wednesday as the day for a couple days now