January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SnowDreamer]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

I feel like it's statistically unlikely that the GFS can just be wrong every single time this winter.  Eventually it has to luck its way into a correct solution.  Hopefully this is it.  

Ringing endorsement right here 

[Shad]

OK that was fun but on to the real models.....what are we seeing on the CMC

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

Ok but it just laid 4 feet in salisbury so it's pretty unlikely this will be the correct solution.

I'd settle for three feet.  

[mitchnick]

You could see it coming instead height lines all backing up. 

[bncho]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

BTW the DGZ is amazing on the GFS, unlike the past storm this would be a legit several thousand thick feet DGZ

JFC imagine what the dendrites would look like!

[Thanatos_I_Am]

An inch in Cumberland and over a foot in DC. Even more of a reason to hope the GFS is right. The panhandle gets screwed and we win. 

[AlexD1990]

5 minutes ago, Nomz said:

son

lol thats near Mardela Springs, MD. See yall in April, i guess.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Shad said:

OK that was fun but on to the real models.....what are we seeing on the CMC

Its been a slow bleed the wrong way since 12z yesterday but still should get it done for at least the Eastern shore if not more. 

[AlexD1990]

4 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Holy fook! I'll see you all at Dewey Beer Co. On Saturday.

lol the entire state will shut down before you can get there. there would be literal panic in the streets with a forecast like that

[Bob Chill]

CMC is further east with the shortwave and a touch more progressive than 0z run. Not far off from the gfs. Just needed to go negative and boom. 

[osfan24]

5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I feel like it's statistically unlikely that the GFS can just be wrong every single time this winter.  Eventually it has to luck its way into a correct solution.  Hopefully this is it.  

GFS about to say hold my beer.

[stormtracker]

Wait, GFS is back???

[Ephesians2]

12z CMC at 96h somewhat less amplified and further east

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Wait, GFS is back???

If you consider 14 inches for dc back…..yes it’s back. 

[Ravens94]

Gfs is on its own. 

[bncho]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

If you consider 14 inches for dc back…..yes it’s back. 

don't tell him SBY got 4' 

[AlexD1990]

i do not think i have ever seen a model run that extreme since the days of the DGEX for 2016.

[WxWatcher007]

14 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

The wind is something else as well

 

9 minutes ago, Nomz said:

son

 

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Closer

[Ephesians2]

Just now, Ephesians2 said:

12z CMC at 96h somewhat less amplified and further east

102h- closed off low over east TN

Looks like it's about 50 miles east across the board

[Army Mike]

We need NoGaps back.. always a good model to know if models are too far east… weenie book page 6


.

[SnowenOutThere]

I think the AFD is by far the best and most succent analysis of this setup possible:

KEY MESSAGE 3...Monitoring the potential for a coastal system
this weekend.

Very favorable storm patten in terms of analogs for big snows in
the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. A 50/50 low & -NAO, Idaho Ridge,
blocking over the Hudson Bay, and trough moving into the east
Pac. Couldn`t ask for a better synoptic setup, but the formation
of a storm remains in the details of this highly sensitive
pattern.

Guidance continues to show a Miller A type Nor`easter (it has
been a while for one to form, let alone show up in model
guidance). While the ceiling is certainly high for this storm,
there is equally if not higher odds it just skirts out to see as
indicated by the latest 00Z guidance and ensembles. Future runs
will have to be seen if this is a trend or noise. How the TPV
evolves will be one of the biggest factors on if this storm
comes to fruition or not and impacts land.

Regardless, expect fluctuations over the next day or two until
the pattern is better sampled as associated energy is onshore
across the western US.

[Shad]

CMC a step back

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

If you consider 14 inches for dc back…..yes it’s back. 

I'd lock that mfer up right now and wouldn't gamble.   

[weathercoins]

We back?

I love this forum.  I’ve been here since EasternWX and every hit or miss follows the same trajectory of hope and despair and hope again, many times over.  I’m just glad we’re tracking anything at all.  

[overcautionisbad]

6 minutes ago, Shad said:

OK that was fun but on to the real models.....what are we seeing on the CMC

That did something similar last night. Onto something maybe?

[stormtracker]

Now watch we have the GFS as the only model in our camp.  I hope not, because it'll just lead us on to hang on longer than we should.  Come on Euro......if ever we needed you

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Shad said:

CMC a step back

Yeah buts it’s still like a few noise level shifts from a HECS.  

[weathercoins]

Salisbury would be dug out in June

[wxmeddler]

50 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

Two more days of “ Check back in every 12 hours” mode till we close the book for the I-95. Ocean City maybe a day after that. 

 

[TowsonWeather]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Now watch we have the GFS as the only model in our camp.  I hope not, because it'll just lead us on to hang on longer than we should.  Come on Euro......if ever we needed you

The GFS has heard us all making fun of it and now it’s just taunting us in an act of petty revenge.