January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

Trying to see some encouraging changes and so far I cannot.  Doesn't mean it's going to be bad, but not seeing anything to be excited about thus far

[stormtracker]

Yeah, precip breaking out is a bit further s and E than it was at 18z.

[stormtracker]

 

[stormtracker]

See yall in the AM!

[bncho]

Everything is more east on this Euro run

[bncho]

Remember that the Euro AI trended south before trending back north for the last storm

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Remember that the Euro AI trended south before trending back north for the last storm

It's ok to say a model run is bad lmao

[Maestrobjwa]

Well that's unfortunate. Everything trended west except the most important one and it's AI counterpart...and you know how slow it is to change! If it doesn't change by 0z tomorrow it may be right, smh

[wxmeddler]

If the weenies want a bit of a glimmer of hope to hold onto, climatology does not support a surface low that OTS. Pretty rare.

[midatlanticweather]

Eps? 

[bncho]

Upgraded CMC shift SE

[EHoffman]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Upgraded CMC shift SE

The only shred of hope I have is it actually gonna snow 30" on the Delmarva?

[wasnow215]

Ensembles?

[Nomz]

2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Ensembles?

All the rich folk with pivotal and wxbell subs are asleep lol

[bncho]

EPS-AI tick SE
(these just came out on WxBELL, btw)

[bncho]

EPS is a more major tick SE
(these ALSO just came out on WxBELL)

 

[Jebman]

It's SE BUT this is pretty early

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Jebman said:

It's SE BUT this is pretty early

If it's like this on 12z Wednesday then it's probably cooked, but I want to see how the recon data affects the modeling output.

[wasnow215]

7 minutes ago, bncho said:

EPS is a more major tick SE
(these ALSO just came out on WxBELL)

 

Temps teens and low 20's Sat could be 20:1 ratios no?

[Jebman]

22 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Temps teens and low 20's Sat could be 20:1 ratios no?

2m temps means something but it is much more about what goes on upstairs. Need Bob Chill or one of the Mets to explain this better than I could, lol. It's something about the DGZ, Dendritic Growth Zone or something like that.

 

Remember the last storm in Virginia? Ground temps in the low teens? Sleet falling in 13 degree temperatures and people saying this is so ridiculous? It was all about what was happening upstairs. I think it was because of a strong warm layer at about 700mb or something like that over top of the incredibly frigid airmass over the Mid Atlantic that caused the warm layer to dump rainfall that froze into sleet pellets because it was so damn COLD in the boundary layer.

Or something like that. I really should leave this to degreed Mets or qualified hobbyists like Bob Chill or PSU or even SnowinOutThere. He needs a red tag stat. I sure don't. All I am, is an old man, all played out, can't even dig snow anymore, can hardly walk on ice down here in Texas without falling and smashing my low back to smithereens, snow weenie lmao.