January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

It's early, but remarkably consistent so far at H5 57

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It's early, but remarkably consistent so far at H5 57

I'm nervous AF right now

[Solution Man]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

I'm nervous AF right now

Getcha a drink

[IronTy]

22 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I wonder what Louis Uccellini would say about this one? 

Congrats Des Moines.  

[Ji]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

I'm nervous AF right now

yes but we dont have to wait an hour like this. Its a quick painful death when its so close

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

I'm nervous AF right now

We still got like 20 more euro runs till any game time lol

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

it looks like it was a stronger storm though overall...just more east

Just a bit more + tilt in front of the closed ULL. Minor diff but big implications. But the odds of anything being locked in is zero. That said, my yard strongly approves of this run.... 6-12" cold powder heh

[Bob Chill]

Potential for 15-20:1 ratios is high so the euroAI would still be close to 6" in dc/Baltimore. Hard to hate the run unless you live in Leesburg

[Climate175]

12z suite looking good thus far. I'd rather be in the bullseye on Thurs/Fri, if this materializes. Right now, the fact all models are picking up a costal storm and the dynamics look favorable is the key takeaway. 

[stormtracker]

Ok, SV doing the skipped panel thing, but I'm at 99...starting to get some development on the gulf

[stormtracker]

So, this looks like it will be east of 6z so far

[stormtracker]

The h5 maps lag severely behind so I don't know where it's gonna go next..but there is the latest frame

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

So, this looks like it will be east of 6z so far

Good I don’t want to be getting wrecked at day 5

[bncho]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

So, this looks like it will be east of 6z so far

ok good it was trending like 100 miles NW each run 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Good I don’t want to be getting wrecked at day 5

Probably won't be getting wrecked at day 0 either lol. Let's hope though. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

The h5 maps lag severely behind so I don't know where it's gonna go next..but there is the latest frame

Looks positive tilt. Onto 18z 

[stormtracker]

Yeah, it's east.   Hold it together...we're 5 days out

[stormtracker]

Got the slow tuck thing happening tho

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, it's east.   Hold it together...we're 5 days out

Kinda don’t need to wait for regular euro anymore. So usually leads and shows the same 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Good I don’t want to be getting wrecked at day 5

the ull is not as negative as it was at same panels  like 6z but the signal is still there

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z Can. ensemble; last picture compared to 0Z.

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Got the slow tuck thing happening tho

Is Norfolk really going to be the place to be? Lots of time to go. Storm is still there, so that's the plus side. We just need more negative tilt a bit earlier

[Amped]

It doesn't retrograde the pv in Canada as much this run. You could tell by the 500mb maps at 60hrs it was probably going east.

[WxUSAF]

16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Nothing wrong with the Euro-AI. You don't want to be in the bulls eye this far out.

This setup screams north trend to me. North and probably east trend unfortunately.

[Ji]

i could tell it was going to be east just from how it looked up here by North Dakota

[bncho]

Wait for the D4 "model reshuffle" before getting worried about OTS

[DDweatherman]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

This setup screams north trend to me. North and probably east trend unfortunately.

Yes, I'm thinking new england would be the place to be for this last second comeback. It does the short term overcorrect, then tends to "re-correct" back the other way. That said, we've seen a lot happen. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

It doesn't retrograde the pv in Canada as much this run. You could tell by the 500mb maps at 60hrs it was probably going east.

Definitely need that PV placement for a good block in place. 

[Alfoman]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

It doesn't retrograde the pv in Canada as much this run. You could tell by the 500mb maps at 60hrs it was probably going east.

That's why I caution this is delicate setup even if we eventually do get the low bombing off the coast at some point. Those smaller differences up top translate into huge surface-level shifts 

[Ji]

so deflating...especially cause its under 120 hours out. Randy is fired