January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Heisy]

CMC is the important run today, it’s been doing very well


.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Lmao, the GFS still tries to make it happen. I mean I guess this is good news

Oh man it's so close. We're a step or two away.

[TSSN+]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Euro has a weird little trough out west that dampens the western ridge. Euro and Icon do not have have.

You mean gfs I assume 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

You mean gfs I assume 

Yes. Autocorrect got me. I'll fix my post. Ty

[clskinsfan]

The ICON should have been more tucked than it was with that 500 representation. It is really close to Euro. And the GFS took a step in that direction as well. This thing has real legs now.

[LeesburgWx]

Verbatim, Norfolk burried with a 971 mb low off VA Beach lol. Wow

[stormtracker]

I know we all say this a lot, but this time I 100% mean it. Keep all of these models where they are now.  Thursday 12z run, thats when they can go crazy and show us in the perfect spot.

I want this bad boy.

[Ji]

I know we all say this a lot, but this time I 100% mean it. Keep all of these models where they are now.  Thursday 12z run, thats when they can go crazy and show us in the perfect spot.
I want this bad boy.

Beach trip if it’s too far east ?

[clskinsfan]

If that shit verifies I am definitely going to OC for this storm. Goodness gracious. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I know we all say this a lot, but this time I 100% mean it. Keep all of these models where they are now.  Thursday 12z run, thats when they can go crazy and show us in the perfect spot.

I want this bad boy.

Ya at this range gfs have North Carolina 2-3’ 

[EHoffman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I know we all say this a lot, but this time I 100% mean it. Keep all of these models where they are now.  Thursday 12z run, thats when they can go crazy and show us in the perfect spot.

I want this bad boy.

This is exactly where I want to be on the GFS 5 days out.

[LP08]

CMC looks closer to trying to do something  better than 0z

[TSSN+]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

If that shit verifies I am definitely going to OC for this storm. Goodness gracious. 

I can tell you, it won’t 

[Lucy Pull]

Just now, LP08 said:

CMC looks closer to trying to do something  better than 0z

CMC looking interesting at 102…biting more than 0z

[TSSN+]

CMC looks like it could be more euroish like 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

CMC is the important run today, it’s been doing very well


.

So far, IMO, it's looks better than it's 0z run

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

CMC looks a lot better than 0z. Low in the gulf 108, 500 looks tasty. 

[stormtracker]

Ninja'd

[Shad]

wow these runs for MBY are giving me chills this morning.....if only this were 2 days out.....im in Eastern Northern Neck VA

[TSSN+]

Incoming! 

[jayyy]

CMC big step toward euro

[psuhoffman]

53 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Recent storm, we were in the bulls eye or just north of it before the D4 "model reshuffle" (yes I'm coining that phrase). This time let's reshuffle this into us being the bulls eye!

the guidance was too slow on retrograding the longwave pattern last week which lead to this past storm going from a TN Valley/NC blizzard to eventually a OH Valley to New England blizzard.  And the same trend is continuing right now, if it does continue the same exact error….well we’re all thinking it!  

The whole pattern is retrograding and reloading. Just as the current block is retrograding into the west and dissipating the next Scandinavian ridge is about to retro into Greenland next week!  Think the last 9 years when we were often stuck in a feedback loop of never ending suck. This time we’re stuck in the feedback loop we want with the consistent being a permanently weak AO all winter that looks to continue frankly likely the whole cold season.  We’ve slightly underperformed to this point but we have a whole half (and the snowier half) of snow climo left to correct that!  

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Incoming! 

Come on CMC..capture and pull that baby NNW

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Come on CMC..capture and pull that baby NNW

It’s moving nw already 

[stormtracker]

Regardless, it's a huge step toward Euro vs the run last night

[clskinsfan]

Canadian is now closed at 500 at hour 120 when it wasnt at 0Z. Goes neutral tilt 126. 

[TSSN+]

Step toward euro.. check

 

[WVclimo]

The trend is our friend

[Paleocene]

Is this good? I think this is good.

[clskinsfan]

Bazinga!!!