January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[frd]

No signs at all that the AO will return to positive any time soon, while another significant drop in the AO may occur in mid Feb.  Deep winter locked in! 

 

[frd]

 

This lines up with the mid Feb period of interest, give or take a few days.  

 

Heinrich Leopold

 

@LeopoldHeinrich

 

 

Arctic temps recovered +6C from a steep -25C fall. I am expecting a steep rise, which will trigger the next cold wave in February. This is confirmed by zonal winds falling until Feb. #natgas

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[baltosquid]

Question for any mets or model experts out there. After this weekend’s storm we’ll have, as has been described, a glacier. Never really seen the kind of ice topper we’re staring down myself (at least not as an adult who has very amateur knowledge of weather) and I imagine it is an even higher albedo than just a plain snow pack. Looking forward to the next 10 days, does model thermal handling perform better or worse with anomalously high albedo ground conditions? Just curious, not thinking about this in a weenie “surely the models are underdoing cold” but rather just very intrigued by an anomalously large ice pack.

[LordBaltimore]

6 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Question for any mets or model experts out there. After this weekend’s storm we’ll have, as has been described, a glacier. Never really seen the kind of ice topper we’re staring down myself (at least not as an adult who has very amateur knowledge of weather) and I imagine it is an even higher albedo than just a plain snow pack. Looking forward to the next 10 days, does model thermal handling perform better or worse with anomalously high albedo ground conditions? Just curious, not thinking about this in a weenie “surely the models are underdoing cold” but rather just very intrigued by an anomalously large ice pack.

ice has a slightly lower albedo than snow. I don't believe slight variations in albedo based on snowpack quality are something most models handle, it's usually snow-covered/not snow-covered

[baltosquid]

3 minutes ago, LordBaltimore said:

ice has a slightly lower albedo than snow. I don't believe slight variations in albedo based on snowpack quality are something most models handle, it's usually snow-covered/not snow-covered

Really? Didn’t know ice would be lower, figured it would be more reflective. But helpful!

[Maestrobjwa]

Alright Imma need next weekend to produce...that's all I'm saying. This weekend kinda hurts, lol

[mattie g]

4 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Climo says we waste the rest of the cold and just have high heating bills and this storm to show for it. What are the chances of a 2010 redux? That is like a once in 100 year type thing at best.

[LordBaltimore]

57 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Really? Didn’t know ice would be lower, figured it would be more reflective. But helpful!

fresh, powdery snow has the highest albedo of any surface. Light gets almost completely scattered. Ice and sleet are a bit more translucent if you look at them closely

[baltosquid]

AIGFS does have the coastal next weekend but... it is a rainer lol. Not that I put any stock in the progression at this range but could you imagine getting a perfect track coastal with this cold air and then it's rain? I shudder to think about the forum's psyche in that hypothetical. Anyway, everyone get ready to track the late week miniclipper come tomorrow.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

AIGFS does have the coastal next weekend but... it is a rainer lol. Not that I put any stock in the progression at this range but could you imagine getting a perfect track coastal with this cold air and then it's rain? I shudder to think about the forum's psyche in that hypothetical. Anyway, everyone get ready to track the late week miniclipper come tomorrow.

There’s that GL low. AI is “learning” about those 

[winter_warlock]

GfsAI has the storm end of  next weekend. Albiet off the coast

[baltosquid]

GFS gets us a coastal Saturday. Seemed like the coastal develops late but it gets stuck and dumps a decent amount.

[Maestrobjwa]

Regular GFS does have a signal for something...messy output but still a signal.

Hm...after what appears to be a growing debacle tomorrow...we really wanna track this one if it has legs? Lol

[NorthArlington101]

Regular GFS does have a signal for something...messy output but still a signal.
Hm...after what appears to be a growing debacle tomorrow...we really wanna track this one if it has legs? Lol

I’d track a limbless torso

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’d track a limbless torso

Oh the macabre! I'm gonna guess you love horror movies, lol

[baltosquid]

UKMET wasn’t able to get the clipper to work, and then had a suppressed coastal brewing at the end of the run. Okay at this range.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’d track a limbless torso

 

21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh the macabre! I'm gonna guess you love horror movies, lol

[The Dude]

44 minutes ago, mattie g said:

[Solution Man]

42 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’d track a limbless torso

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

12z GFS ensemble mean MSLP anomaly, hot off the press for next weekend.  Better than previous versions.  We're still in the 1st inning here.  Deterministic model runs at this range perform more gymnastics than Cirque du Soleil.

[Bob Chill]

Gefs is building a decent sized camp of near the coast lows. Upper air pattern looks to favor a too far offshore track but this was a pretty good run all things considered. As we just relearned for the millionth time lol.... winter wx tracking is never clear cut and simple even inside of 96 hours. Lead time is double that rn

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs is building a decent sized camp of near the coast lows. Upper air pattern looks to favor a too far offshore track but this was a pretty good run all things considered. As we just relearned for the millionth time lol.... winter wx tracking is never clear cut and simple even inside of 96 hours. Lead time is double that rn

I haven't been looking quite as much at this thread, obviously, with the upcoming event taking most of my focus.  But overall I like the signal as we approach the end of January and first week of February.  And actually that signal was appearing around that time for awhile now.  I gave a very cursory glance at the GFS surface, and caveats aside about a deterministic run way out in time, but damn it looks to unload another 1050 high into the US near the end of its run!

[baltosquid]

For 12z, EPS-AIFS has an OTS coastal signal, similar to the GEFS. EPS has a few coastal members but not as enthused.  MOGREPS-G (UK ensembles) actually might have the strongest signal of all of them. ICON-EPS doesn't really have it other than one or two members but also only goes to 180 so not sure what it might have done later, but definitely not excited about it. GEPS... Bueller? Bueller...

Basically, it needs to come closer to the coast. After the suppression died a coward's death this weekend, I don't mind hoping for that. But we might just go right back to the La Niña specialty and keep it down south, who knows.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I mean, if this is how we are rolling into mid February,  I wouldnt complain. GEFS mean Feb 8:

[GreyHat]

4 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

For 12z, EPS-AIFS has an OTS coastal signal, similar to the GEFS. EPS has a few coastal members but not as enthused.  MOGREPS-G (UK ensembles) actually might have the strongest signal of all of them. ICON-EPS doesn't really have it other than one or two members but also only goes to 180 so not sure what it might have done later, but definitely not excited about it. GEPS... Bueller? Bueller...

Basically, it needs to come closer to the coast. After the suppression died a coward's death this weekend, I don't mind hoping for that. But we might just go right back to the La Niña specialty and keep it down south, who knows.

GFS gives the coast some love

[baltosquid]

3 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

GFS gives the coast some love

Yes, though I'm definitely gonna wait for the CMC, ECMWF, or UKMET to jump on board before believing the GFS.

[frd]

14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I mean, if this is how we are rolling into mid February,  I wouldnt complain. GEFS mean Feb 8:

West based Greenland blocking might be in play due to the strat background state taking place during this time period. 

Would love to get a Manitoba Mauler to pop off NC and explode and do a loop de loop off the Mid Atlantic Coast.  Been waiting decades. 

 

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright Imma need next weekend to produce...that's all I'm saying. This weekend kinda hurts, lol

Workin on it, but just remember, if the storm is a coastal scraper I'm good with it. 

Also.. Why does this weekend 'hurt'? Gonna be the best storm you have seen in years. Get over the fact that it won't be all snow.

[baltosquid]

GEPS finally ran and has a signal for the same timeframe but it's more north. So a lot of imperfect noise for the time being. NBM actually should go out to this range so I'm interested to see how the period looks on it later. HGEFS as well. NOAA's GSL has them both on DESI for free.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Workin on it, but just remember, if the storm is a coastal scraper I'm good with it. 

Also. Why does this 'hurt'? Gonna be the best storm you have seen in years. Get over the fact that it won't be all snow.

It's not the mix that bothers me--it's possibly missing the 6" mark again before the flip. It's not really a warning level snow if half of that is sleet. All was asking for is to get 6-10" before the flip, but according to the trends today it's sounding like it's gonna mix sooner