frd Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago No signs at all that the AO will return to positive any time soon, while another significant drop in the AO may occur in mid Feb. Deep winter locked in! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago This lines up with the mid Feb period of interest, give or take a few days. Heinrich Leopold @LeopoldHeinrich Arctic temps recovered +6C from a steep -25C fall. I am expecting a steep rise, which will trigger the next cold wave in February. This is confirmed by zonal winds falling until Feb. #natgas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Question for any mets or model experts out there. After this weekend’s storm we’ll have, as has been described, a glacier. Never really seen the kind of ice topper we’re staring down myself (at least not as an adult who has very amateur knowledge of weather) and I imagine it is an even higher albedo than just a plain snow pack. Looking forward to the next 10 days, does model thermal handling perform better or worse with anomalously high albedo ground conditions? Just curious, not thinking about this in a weenie “surely the models are underdoing cold” but rather just very intrigued by an anomalously large ice pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 6 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Question for any mets or model experts out there. After this weekend’s storm we’ll have, as has been described, a glacier. Never really seen the kind of ice topper we’re staring down myself (at least not as an adult who has very amateur knowledge of weather) and I imagine it is an even higher albedo than just a plain snow pack. Looking forward to the next 10 days, does model thermal handling perform better or worse with anomalously high albedo ground conditions? Just curious, not thinking about this in a weenie “surely the models are underdoing cold” but rather just very intrigued by an anomalously large ice pack. ice has a slightly lower albedo than snow. I don't believe slight variations in albedo based on snowpack quality are something most models handle, it's usually snow-covered/not snow-covered 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 minutes ago, LordBaltimore said: ice has a slightly lower albedo than snow. I don't believe slight variations in albedo based on snowpack quality are something most models handle, it's usually snow-covered/not snow-covered Really? Didn’t know ice would be lower, figured it would be more reflective. But helpful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Alright Imma need next weekend to produce...that's all I'm saying. This weekend kinda hurts, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said: Climo says we waste the rest of the cold and just have high heating bills and this storm to show for it. What are the chances of a 2010 redux? That is like a once in 100 year type thing at best. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 57 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Really? Didn’t know ice would be lower, figured it would be more reflective. But helpful! fresh, powdery snow has the highest albedo of any surface. Light gets almost completely scattered. Ice and sleet are a bit more translucent if you look at them closely 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago AIGFS does have the coastal next weekend but... it is a rainer lol. Not that I put any stock in the progression at this range but could you imagine getting a perfect track coastal with this cold air and then it's rain? I shudder to think about the forum's psyche in that hypothetical. Anyway, everyone get ready to track the late week miniclipper come tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, baltosquid said: AIGFS does have the coastal next weekend but... it is a rainer lol. Not that I put any stock in the progression at this range but could you imagine getting a perfect track coastal with this cold air and then it's rain? I shudder to think about the forum's psyche in that hypothetical. Anyway, everyone get ready to track the late week miniclipper come tomorrow. There’s that GL low. AI is “learning” about those 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago GfsAI has the storm end of next weekend. Albiet off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago GFS gets us a coastal Saturday. Seemed like the coastal develops late but it gets stuck and dumps a decent amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Regular GFS does have a signal for something...messy output but still a signal. Hm...after what appears to be a growing debacle tomorrow...we really wanna track this one if it has legs? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Regular GFS does have a signal for something...messy output but still a signal. Hm...after what appears to be a growing debacle tomorrow...we really wanna track this one if it has legs? LolI’d track a limbless torso 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’d track a limbless torso Oh the macabre! I'm gonna guess you love horror movies, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago UKMET wasn’t able to get the clipper to work, and then had a suppressed coastal brewing at the end of the run. Okay at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’d track a limbless torso 21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh the macabre! I'm gonna guess you love horror movies, lol 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 44 minutes ago, mattie g said: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 42 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’d track a limbless torso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowciopathic Snow Bro Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12z GFS ensemble mean MSLP anomaly, hot off the press for next weekend. Better than previous versions. We're still in the 1st inning here. Deterministic model runs at this range perform more gymnastics than Cirque du Soleil. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Gefs is building a decent sized camp of near the coast lows. Upper air pattern looks to favor a too far offshore track but this was a pretty good run all things considered. As we just relearned for the millionth time lol.... winter wx tracking is never clear cut and simple even inside of 96 hours. Lead time is double that rn 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs is building a decent sized camp of near the coast lows. Upper air pattern looks to favor a too far offshore track but this was a pretty good run all things considered. As we just relearned for the millionth time lol.... winter wx tracking is never clear cut and simple even inside of 96 hours. Lead time is double that rn I haven't been looking quite as much at this thread, obviously, with the upcoming event taking most of my focus. But overall I like the signal as we approach the end of January and first week of February. And actually that signal was appearing around that time for awhile now. I gave a very cursory glance at the GFS surface, and caveats aside about a deterministic run way out in time, but damn it looks to unload another 1050 high into the US near the end of its run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 40 minutes ago Share Posted 40 minutes ago For 12z, EPS-AIFS has an OTS coastal signal, similar to the GEFS. EPS has a few coastal members but not as enthused. MOGREPS-G (UK ensembles) actually might have the strongest signal of all of them. ICON-EPS doesn't really have it other than one or two members but also only goes to 180 so not sure what it might have done later, but definitely not excited about it. GEPS... Bueller? Bueller... Basically, it needs to come closer to the coast. After the suppression died a coward's death this weekend, I don't mind hoping for that. But we might just go right back to the La Niña specialty and keep it down south, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 37 minutes ago Share Posted 37 minutes ago I mean, if this is how we are rolling into mid February, I wouldnt complain. GEFS mean Feb 8: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted 35 minutes ago Share Posted 35 minutes ago 4 minutes ago, baltosquid said: For 12z, EPS-AIFS has an OTS coastal signal, similar to the GEFS. EPS has a few coastal members but not as enthused. MOGREPS-G (UK ensembles) actually might have the strongest signal of all of them. ICON-EPS doesn't really have it other than one or two members but also only goes to 180 so not sure what it might have done later, but definitely not excited about it. GEPS... Bueller? Bueller... Basically, it needs to come closer to the coast. After the suppression died a coward's death this weekend, I don't mind hoping for that. But we might just go right back to the La Niña specialty and keep it down south, who knows. GFS gives the coast some love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 30 minutes ago Share Posted 30 minutes ago 3 minutes ago, GreyHat said: GFS gives the coast some love Yes, though I'm definitely gonna wait for the CMC, ECMWF, or UKMET to jump on board before believing the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 19 minutes ago Share Posted 19 minutes ago 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I mean, if this is how we are rolling into mid February, I wouldnt complain. GEFS mean Feb 8: West based Greenland blocking might be in play due to the strat background state taking place during this time period. Would love to get a Manitoba Mauler to pop off NC and explode and do a loop de loop off the Mid Atlantic Coast. Been waiting decades. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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