January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[frd]

No signs at all that the AO will return to positive any time soon, while another significant drop in the AO may occur in mid Feb.  Deep winter locked in! 

 

[frd]

 

This lines up with the mid Feb period of interest, give or take a few days.  

 

Heinrich Leopold

 

@LeopoldHeinrich

 

 

Arctic temps recovered +6C from a steep -25C fall. I am expecting a steep rise, which will trigger the next cold wave in February. This is confirmed by zonal winds falling until Feb. #natgas

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[baltosquid]

Question for any mets or model experts out there. After this weekend’s storm we’ll have, as has been described, a glacier. Never really seen the kind of ice topper we’re staring down myself (at least not as an adult who has very amateur knowledge of weather) and I imagine it is an even higher albedo than just a plain snow pack. Looking forward to the next 10 days, does model thermal handling perform better or worse with anomalously high albedo ground conditions? Just curious, not thinking about this in a weenie “surely the models are underdoing cold” but rather just very intrigued by an anomalously large ice pack.

[LordBaltimore]

6 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Question for any mets or model experts out there. After this weekend’s storm we’ll have, as has been described, a glacier. Never really seen the kind of ice topper we’re staring down myself (at least not as an adult who has very amateur knowledge of weather) and I imagine it is an even higher albedo than just a plain snow pack. Looking forward to the next 10 days, does model thermal handling perform better or worse with anomalously high albedo ground conditions? Just curious, not thinking about this in a weenie “surely the models are underdoing cold” but rather just very intrigued by an anomalously large ice pack.

ice has a slightly lower albedo than snow. I don't believe slight variations in albedo based on snowpack quality are something most models handle, it's usually snow-covered/not snow-covered

[baltosquid]

3 minutes ago, LordBaltimore said:

ice has a slightly lower albedo than snow. I don't believe slight variations in albedo based on snowpack quality are something most models handle, it's usually snow-covered/not snow-covered

Really? Didn’t know ice would be lower, figured it would be more reflective. But helpful!

[Maestrobjwa]

Alright Imma need next weekend to produce...that's all I'm saying. This weekend kinda hurts, lol

[mattie g]

4 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Climo says we waste the rest of the cold and just have high heating bills and this storm to show for it. What are the chances of a 2010 redux? That is like a once in 100 year type thing at best.

[LordBaltimore]

57 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Really? Didn’t know ice would be lower, figured it would be more reflective. But helpful!

fresh, powdery snow has the highest albedo of any surface. Light gets almost completely scattered. Ice and sleet are a bit more translucent if you look at them closely

[baltosquid]

AIGFS does have the coastal next weekend but... it is a rainer lol. Not that I put any stock in the progression at this range but could you imagine getting a perfect track coastal with this cold air and then it's rain? I shudder to think about the forum's psyche in that hypothetical. Anyway, everyone get ready to track the late week miniclipper come tomorrow.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

AIGFS does have the coastal next weekend but... it is a rainer lol. Not that I put any stock in the progression at this range but could you imagine getting a perfect track coastal with this cold air and then it's rain? I shudder to think about the forum's psyche in that hypothetical. Anyway, everyone get ready to track the late week miniclipper come tomorrow.

There’s that GL low. AI is “learning” about those 

[winter_warlock]

GfsAI has the storm end of  next weekend. Albiet off the coast

[baltosquid]

GFS gets us a coastal Saturday. Seemed like the coastal develops late but it gets stuck and dumps a decent amount.

[Maestrobjwa]

Regular GFS does have a signal for something...messy output but still a signal.

Hm...after what appears to be a growing debacle tomorrow...we really wanna track this one if it has legs? Lol

[NorthArlington101]

Regular GFS does have a signal for something...messy output but still a signal.
Hm...after what appears to be a growing debacle tomorrow...we really wanna track this one if it has legs? Lol

I’d track a limbless torso

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’d track a limbless torso

Oh the macabre! I'm gonna guess you love horror movies, lol