frd Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago No signs at all that the AO will return to positive any time soon, while another significant drop in the AO may occur in mid Feb. Deep winter locked in! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago This lines up with the mid Feb period of interest, give or take a few days. Heinrich Leopold @LeopoldHeinrich Arctic temps recovered +6C from a steep -25C fall. I am expecting a steep rise, which will trigger the next cold wave in February. This is confirmed by zonal winds falling until Feb. #natgas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Question for any mets or model experts out there. After this weekend’s storm we’ll have, as has been described, a glacier. Never really seen the kind of ice topper we’re staring down myself (at least not as an adult who has very amateur knowledge of weather) and I imagine it is an even higher albedo than just a plain snow pack. Looking forward to the next 10 days, does model thermal handling perform better or worse with anomalously high albedo ground conditions? Just curious, not thinking about this in a weenie “surely the models are underdoing cold” but rather just very intrigued by an anomalously large ice pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Question for any mets or model experts out there. After this weekend’s storm we’ll have, as has been described, a glacier. Never really seen the kind of ice topper we’re staring down myself (at least not as an adult who has very amateur knowledge of weather) and I imagine it is an even higher albedo than just a plain snow pack. Looking forward to the next 10 days, does model thermal handling perform better or worse with anomalously high albedo ground conditions? Just curious, not thinking about this in a weenie “surely the models are underdoing cold” but rather just very intrigued by an anomalously large ice pack. ice has a slightly lower albedo than snow. I don't believe slight variations in albedo based on snowpack quality are something most models handle, it's usually snow-covered/not snow-covered 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, LordBaltimore said: ice has a slightly lower albedo than snow. I don't believe slight variations in albedo based on snowpack quality are something most models handle, it's usually snow-covered/not snow-covered Really? Didn’t know ice would be lower, figured it would be more reflective. But helpful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Alright Imma need next weekend to produce...that's all I'm saying. This weekend kinda hurts, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said: Climo says we waste the rest of the cold and just have high heating bills and this storm to show for it. What are the chances of a 2010 redux? That is like a once in 100 year type thing at best. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 57 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Really? Didn’t know ice would be lower, figured it would be more reflective. But helpful! fresh, powdery snow has the highest albedo of any surface. Light gets almost completely scattered. Ice and sleet are a bit more translucent if you look at them closely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago AIGFS does have the coastal next weekend but... it is a rainer lol. Not that I put any stock in the progression at this range but could you imagine getting a perfect track coastal with this cold air and then it's rain? I shudder to think about the forum's psyche in that hypothetical. Anyway, everyone get ready to track the late week miniclipper come tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, baltosquid said: AIGFS does have the coastal next weekend but... it is a rainer lol. Not that I put any stock in the progression at this range but could you imagine getting a perfect track coastal with this cold air and then it's rain? I shudder to think about the forum's psyche in that hypothetical. Anyway, everyone get ready to track the late week miniclipper come tomorrow. There’s that GL low. AI is “learning” about those 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GfsAI has the storm end of next weekend. Albiet off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GFS gets us a coastal Saturday. Seemed like the coastal develops late but it gets stuck and dumps a decent amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Regular GFS does have a signal for something...messy output but still a signal. Hm...after what appears to be a growing debacle tomorrow...we really wanna track this one if it has legs? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Regular GFS does have a signal for something...messy output but still a signal. Hm...after what appears to be a growing debacle tomorrow...we really wanna track this one if it has legs? LolI’d track a limbless torso 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’d track a limbless torso Oh the macabre! I'm gonna guess you love horror movies, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago UKMET wasn’t able to get the clipper to work, and then had a suppressed coastal brewing at the end of the run. Okay at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’d track a limbless torso 21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh the macabre! I'm gonna guess you love horror movies, lol 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 44 minutes ago, mattie g said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted 45 minutes ago Share Posted 45 minutes ago 42 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’d track a limbless torso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowciopathic Snow Bro Posted 38 minutes ago Share Posted 38 minutes ago 12z GFS ensemble mean MSLP anomaly, hot off the press for next weekend. Better than previous versions. We're still in the 1st inning here. Deterministic model runs at this range perform more gymnastics than Cirque du Soleil. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted 19 minutes ago Share Posted 19 minutes ago Gefs is building a decent sized camp of near the coast lows. Upper air pattern looks to favor a too far offshore track but this was a pretty good run all things considered. As we just relearned for the millionth time lol.... winter wx tracking is never clear cut and simple even inside of 96 hours. Lead time is double that rn 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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