LeesburgWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Back edge in New Mexico is a good thing Not according to Ji 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Back edge in New Mexico is a good thing I’m sure Ji will find a way to see it on radar regardless. Edit: damn it got ninjaed on a 1 minute reply 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 33 minutes ago, Disc said: 18z euro nice and amped. Faster too. Snow already falling across much of the area by mid-day Saturday. Wow that -and- it's already at HR144? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Folks. . . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 genuinely what the fuck 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 omg 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Folks. . . Was I wrong to read this as him in support of the more suppressed look? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Steve25 said: Was I wrong to read this as him in support of the more suppressed look? I read this the same way...and I believe that would be his bias anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 28 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So wait. What you’re saying is this thing may be at 120hours tomm this time? What a minute hold the fuck up…. Happy MLK. Just left former Virginia Gov L. Douglas Wilder 95th birthday party. He is amazing. He actually met MLK. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, bncho said: genuinely what the fuck This can’t be real, I have built two tents looking at this. 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Not according to JiTo be fair, Ji does know his backends...Sent from my MNP1095 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, bncho said: genuinely what the fuck I don't understand the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, bncho said: omg It's very nice to see the ensembles putting out high numbers like that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, bncho said: omg A 72-hr ensemble MEAN of 6" - 8" from Mason-Dixon to the tidewater of VA. Wow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, bncho said: omg btw if this were kuchera all the snow totals would be more even... around 9-12" for the DMV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Notice when Ji goes silent we get plenty of digital blue? 3 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 13 minutes ago, bncho said: btw if this were kuchera all the snow totals would be more even... around 9-12" for the DMV Its very uncommon for a decent sized storm to be higher than 10:1 in the MA even when it's cold. There can be periods of high ratio snow most commonly on the backside or an upper level low pass but the front side is usually 10:1 or less. It's humid here and that matters. Getting pristine snow growth for long durations is also hard for multiple reasons. We always get periods of plates and mangled flakes even when it's a clean all snow event. Imo, sticking to the basic 10:1 ratio when the ground and column is cold is the most accurate. Lower when something is flawed. A 15:1 or higher ratio storm is a unicorn in these parts 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 12/19/09 was a relatively high ratio storm, no mixing no dry slots. 12-14:1 thereabouts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Euro AI laughs at the gfs lol Looks like a double barreled system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I'm hoping the good Dr.King can use some of his divine influence tomorrow on the day we celebrate his birthday! and help the Gfs see the same thing the AI models are seeing!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 This is me when l look at the GFS model 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Its very uncommon for a decent sized storm to be higher than 10:1 in the MA even when it's cold. There can be periods of high ratio snow most commonly on the backside or an upper level low pass but the front side is usually 10:1 or less. It's humid here and that matters. Getting pristine snow growth for long durations is also hard for multiple reasons. We always get periods of plates and mangled flakes even when it's a clean all snow event. Imo, sticking to the basic 10:1 ratio when the ground and column is cold is the most accurate. Lower when something is flawed. A 15:1 or higher ratio storm is a unicorn in these parts I hear this kind of thinking a lot and don't doubt it because I don't think I've ever seen Kuchera verify here... my question is why don't the models correctly model this? In theory shouldn't Kuchera go below 10:1 in our area due to the factors you indicated? I feel like Kuchera is always higher than 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: I'm hoping the good Dr.King can use some of his divine influence tomorrow on the day we celebrate his birthday! and help the Gfs see the same thing the AI models are seeing!! Let’s hope the 10 year anniversary of 2016 this Thursday/Friday brings us some good mojo too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 12/19/09 was a relatively high ratio storm, no mixing no dry slots. 12-14:1 thereabouts. Yes it was i got 17.5 Inches at my house in Baltimore county MD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I didn't see the 144hrs Eps snowfall map, so... There's actually a noticeable jump north from 138hrs and 148hrs too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 This is the general flavor of the storm i'm getting right now, if anybody wants to correct me they can go ahead. Scenario 1 — The Mid-Atlantic is impacted by a major winter storm that drops 4"+ of snow. (likely) Scenario 2 — The Mid-Atlantic is too far north to receive the brunt of the system and receives <4" of snow. (possible) Scenario 3 — The Mid-Atlantic is impacted by a major winter storm that briefly starts as snow before changing over to sleet and freezing rain. (unlikely) Scenario 4 — The Mid-Atlantic is too far north to receive anything impacts from the system and receives no snow. (very unlikely) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: This is me when l look at the GFS model That’s my guy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, bncho said: This is the general flavor of the storm i'm getting right now, if anybody wants to correct me they can go ahead. Scenario 1 — The Mid-Atlantic is impacted by a major winter storm that drops 4"+ of snow. (likely) Scenario 2 — The Mid-Atlantic is too far north to receive the brunt of the system and receives <4" of snow. (possible) Scenario 3 — The Mid-Atlantic is impacted by a major winter storm that briefly starts as snow before changing over to sleet and freezing rain. (unlikely) Scenario 4 — The Mid-Atlantic is too far north to receive anything impacts from the system and receives no snow. (very unlikely) This man using likely 6 days out. Bold. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: This man using likely 6 days out. Bold. likely is like 30% chance, it's relative to the time scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, bncho said: This is the general flavor of the storm i'm getting right now, if anybody wants to correct me they can go ahead. Scenario 1 — The Mid-Atlantic is impacted by a major winter storm that drops 4"+ of snow. (likely) Scenario 2 — The Mid-Atlantic is too far north to receive the brunt of the system and receives <4" of snow. (possible) Scenario 3 — The Mid-Atlantic is impacted by a major winter storm that briefly starts as snow before changing over to sleet and freezing rain. (unlikely) Scenario 4 — The Mid-Atlantic is too far north to receive anything impacts from the system and receives no snow. (very unlikely) I’d say scenario 3 would be the least likely at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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