January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Can't see precip. effin WB lol

that low location looks good tho

here---this is a true cape storm

[TSSN+]

Temps during the storm.. ice cold

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Cheers! Gulp gulp

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

here---this is a true cape storm

Yeah I got it now.

That's Chuck's baby btw

Until he makes a -PNA post then it becomes N Arlington's

[Weather Will]

Confession:  I have a major appointment Mon. Am 26th made 2 months ago.  So I can almost guarantee a blizzard on the one day I really don't want it.  Maybe we can adjust the timing until Monday afternoon.....

[87storms]

Next week’s pattern is looking highly trackable. The models won’t know which shortwave will spark the gulf, but it seems like something is brewing.

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, bncho said:

5-10" for most

Too zoomed in. Cant leave out the S DE jackpot

[Maestrobjwa]

31 minutes ago, bncho said:

Jan 22-23 rings a bell from ten years ago...

Ah I guess that would be the first KU you'd remember eh? (Dang that made me feel kinda old, lol)

[bncho]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Ah I guess that would be the first KU you'd remember eh? (Dang that made me feel kinda old, lol)

I don't remember much about that, other than the fact that the snow went up to my waist

[WesternFringe]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Confession:  I have a major appointment Mon. Am 26th made 2 months ago.  So I can almost guarantee a blizzard on the one day I really don't want it.  Maybe we can adjust the timing until Monday afternoon.....

You should ask Stormtracker if you should reschedule the appointment or not and what the weather is likely going to be that day. 

[TSSN+]

Next wave coming out let’s see where it goes. 

[nw baltimore wx]

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Confession:  I have a major appointment Mon. Am 26th made 2 months ago.  So I can almost guarantee a blizzard on the one day I really don't want it.  Maybe we can adjust the timing until Monday afternoon.....

I’ll drive you. 

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Confession:  I have a major appointment Mon. Am 26th made 2 months ago.  So I can almost guarantee a blizzard on the one day I really don't want it.  Maybe we can adjust the timing until Monday afternoon.....

I hope that when you wake up Monday morning on the 26th, there are two downed power poles blocking your door.  They fell due to 40mph winds and drifts of 4feet all across the Metro area.  I hope streets are littered with abandoned cars, helicopters and pedestrians.  I hope the Governor declares your property in a state of emergency.  I hope you can't make your appointment until the NEXT Monday due to snow not melting and ANOTHER snowstorm on Friday.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

You should ask Stormtracker if you should reschedule the appointment or not and what the weather is likely going to be that day. 

My man.  You know me well....

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Next wave coming out let’s see where it goes. 

Another hit, although modest.  I don't have snow maps anymore, but looks SECS'y

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Another hit, although modest 

We take. The cold air is no joke either after that first system it’s brrrrr 

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I hope that when you wake up Monday morning on the 26th, there are two downed power poles blocking your door.  They fell due to 40mph winds and drifts of 4feet all across the Metro area.  I hope streets are littered with abandoned cars, helicopters and pedestrians.  I hope the Governor declares your property in a state of emergency.  I hope you can't make your appointment until the NEXT Monday due to snow not melting and ANOTHER snowstorm on Friday.

Hmmmm......good thing I'm nicer than you and did not allow snow while you were in Florida but if I must reschedule, I will take one for the team.

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hope that when you wake up Monday morning on the 26th, there are two downed power poles blocking your door.  They fell due to 40mph winds and drifts of 4feet all across the Metro area.  I hope streets are littered with abandoned cars, helicopters and pedestrians.  I hope the Governor declares your property in a state of emergency.  I hope you can't make your appointment until the NEXT Monday due to snow not melting and ANOTHER snowstorm on Friday.

This is the way.

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Hmmmm......good thing I'm nicer than you and did not allow snow while you were in Florida but if I must reschedule, I will take one for the team.

Regardless of snow, hopefully the appointments aren’t for anything major. 

[CAPE]

[CAPE]

fuck gotta do kuchera

[WEATHER53]

55 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Good year round crab house there.. oh fuck.. I'm talkin bout blue crabs!

Costas Inn

Yes

I love  crab deck on Kent Island  in summer 

[CAPE]

Fun ass run for a Friday HH. It will all change ofc but a clearly strong signal is there for the last week of the month.

[CAPE]

The GFS really accentuates the downsloping 'dryness' for places east of the western highlands. That seems way overdone.

[WEATHER53]

24 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Temps during the storm.. ice cold

 

33 in OC and 18 in Wilmington would be quite something 

[Conway7305]

Cards may be falling into place late Jan/Early Feb. STJ starts to get active.  

+PNA  -EPO  -AO  hopefully -NAO, MJO moving into phase 8. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Conway7305 said:

Cards may be falling into place late Jan/Early Feb. STJ starts to get active.  

+PNA  -EPO  -AO  hopefully -NAO, MJO moving into phase 8. 

Right now it looks like that window closes Jan 30, so we better score by then. 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Right now it looks like that window closes Jan 30, so we better score by then. 

What are you seeing beyond that? More typical February Nina stuff?

[TSSN+]

Not only with the snow chances on Gfs but my god the temps are brutal for over a week. Highs in teens some days and lows at or below 0. 

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What are you seeing beyond that? More typical February Nina stuff?

GOA low might break through and torch the whole North America. We’ll likely hold onto the cold the longest, and I hope its only temporary as mjo tries to get into 8 and weeklies pop another -ao in early feb. But once canada torches, it’ll take a long time for us to get cold again. 
 

edit: euro does this, but gefs (12z) doesn’t quite punch the goa low through