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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

snowfan

By snowfan,
in Mid Atlantic

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Late next week definitely looks like the period to watch.

I've had more interest in that time period (and/or just after that) than anything for this weekend.  As I said earlier in this thread, different deterministic models (GFS, Euro, CMC, whatever) have on and off shown some kind of really good event in that time.  Sometimes even extreme.  And the ensembles have as well.  Sure, it would disappear and reappear in the deterministic models from run to run (and Ji would complain if an ensemble mean snow map lost us an inch!!), but it's shown up somewhat regularly in that time frame.

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stormtracker
stormtracker

Shut the fuck up

MillvilleWx
MillvilleWx

I came in here to see what y'all were thinking about this 12z suite which looks pretty dang good to my trained eye and....... I hope some of y'all received Valium for Christmas. Good lord. 

high risk
high risk

THIS.   Even though our resident third graders want to moan that poor forecasts show that NWP is useless, there are certain patterns that for whatever reason just aren't predictable.   The fact that a

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The AIFS not wavering and AIFS-Ensemble also upping the ante for at least the eastern shore should raise some eyebrows for Sunday. This is typically when you have to start paying closer attention. We are getting inside 72 hrs. 

HH Euro is gonna be the biggest run of our- lol no it isnt. But it will be telling. Need it to make at least a modest move in the right direction- like a little snow close to DC.

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WeatherGeek2025

WeatherGeek2025

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

HH Euro is gonna be the biggest run of our- lol no it isnt. But it will be telling. Need it to make at least a modest move in the right direction- like a little snow close to DC.

i said this earlier...

anyone have a memory of what happened three days before nemo hit. how did the models behave?

this reminds me of Nemo but the opposite. euro was on the western front that time showing 36 inches for NYC, ended up with like 8 inches. also gfs ended up showing the most eastern solutions than lost it for a day than brought it back! Euro never wavered until  the storm was about to hit! this reminds me of that but the opposite meaning GfS should start showing western hits again by tonight the latest otherwise my theory is wrong. Also euro isn't as good since that last upgrade a few years back and

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WeatherGeek2025

WeatherGeek2025

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

This is your storm, make it so

this reminds me of Nemo but the opposite. euro was on the western front that time showing 36 inches for NYC, ended up with like 8 inches. also gfs ended up showing the most eastern solutions than lost it for a day than brought it back! Euro never wavered until  the storm was about to hit! this reminds me of that but the opposite meaning GfS should start showing western hits again by tonight the latest otherwise my theory is wrong. Also euro isn't as good since that last upgrade a few years back

 

theory is euro won't cave west until go time, gfs will keep trending snowier

 

 

convinced we live in a simulation 

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

Here's a link to the 18z GGEM. Yes, the GGEM and not the Rgem. The GGEM runs at 6z and 18z too, but as far as I know, only Meteocentre has it; I'm sure you may be able to find it somewhere else, so have at it. The region I chose from the top of the page is Quebec because it's as close in to our area as you can get on this dos based website.

Anyway, the link below is for precip totals that fall as snow during the 84hr forecast period in mm. Basically, the dark blue stripe across central MD is at least 5mm, or .2". So figure 2"-3" at 10:1.

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?mod=cmc_gdps&run=18&type=SN&lang=en&map=qc&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest

Other info for the model are here:

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=18&mod=cmc_gdps&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest

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Solution Man

Solution Man

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

this reminds me of Nemo but the opposite. euro was on the western front that time showing 36 inches for NYC, ended up with like 8 inches. also gfs ended up showing the most eastern solutions than lost it for a day than brought it back! Euro never wavered until  the storm was about to hit! this reminds me of that but the opposite meaning GfS should start showing western hits again by tonight the latest otherwise my theory is wrong. Also euro isn't as good since that last upgrade a few years back

 

theory is euro won't cave west until go time, gfs will keep trending snowier

 

 

convinced we live in a simulation 

Hope you’re right, would be nice for a change 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And cod...don't forget the smelly cod

Fresh fish shouldn't smell like much of anything.

Have you never eaten fish and chips? Almost always cod. Alaskan Pollack is good too.

My fav fish is Tuna- bluefin if I can get it. Seared about 45 seconds a side. Fuck yeah.

 

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bncho

bncho

Posted
Posted

GFS is more erratic than a drunk driver, RGEM is so warm that DC receives rain, Euro has been super SE for the last 24 model runs, and the AI models have been super consistent. And then there are a bunch of random models that should NOT be taken into account like the RRFS and the NAM at 84 hours and the ABCDEFG model. These models are so annoying, can't make up their minds lol

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

If we get a 30 day mean like that and it doesn’t snow at all it’s time for a new hobby 

Yeah I mean again...unlike many of the years in this awful stretch WE'VE HAD COLD (I feel like we had it last year too). I mean C'MON...all we need is some moisture (which is why model runs for next week are encouraging)

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If we get a 30 day mean like that and it doesn’t snow at all it’s time for a new hobby 

If/when we get shut out with this upcoming pattern, would you chalk it up to bad luck, or something more serious like a fundamental shift in the base state?

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If/when we get shut out with this upcoming pattern, would you chalk it up to bad luck, or something more serious like a fundamental shift in the base state?

Dude. Always doing the Eeyore thing. Give it a rest lol. Why ask that shit? We need positivity in this thread.

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I've had more interest in that time period (and/or just after that) than anything for this weekend.  As I said earlier in this thread, different deterministic models (GFS, Euro, CMC, whatever) have on and off shown some kind of really good event in that time.  Sometimes even extreme.  And the ensembles have as well.  Sure, it would disappear and reappear in the deterministic models from run to run (and Ji would complain if an ensemble mean snow map lost us an inch!!), but it's shown up somewhat regularly in that time frame.

this is much more inspiring than what we've been working with lately: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2026011518&fh=180

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Paleocene

Paleocene

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They still do!  They both ski now. We go sledding and play in the snow every storm. Unfortunately, I’m not still with their mom. :(

Divorce happens. Fortunately you still love your kids. That's what matters. Speaking from experience. Back to snow talk

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