January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

10 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Late next week definitely looks like the period to watch.

I've had more interest in that time period (and/or just after that) than anything for this weekend.  As I said earlier in this thread, different deterministic models (GFS, Euro, CMC, whatever) have on and off shown some kind of really good event in that time.  Sometimes even extreme.  And the ensembles have as well.  Sure, it would disappear and reappear in the deterministic models from run to run (and Ji would complain if an ensemble mean snow map lost us an inch!!), but it's shown up somewhat regularly in that time frame.

[TSSN+]

18z gfs very close to a 12z euro solution for the storm next week/weekend. Just a little too far north this run. But way south of 12z gfs 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The AIFS not wavering and AIFS-Ensemble also upping the ante for at least the eastern shore should raise some eyebrows for Sunday. This is typically when you have to start paying closer attention. We are getting inside 72 hrs. 

HH Euro is gonna be the biggest run of our- lol no it isnt. But it will be telling. Need it to make at least a modest move in the right direction- like a little snow close to DC.

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

HH Euro is gonna be the biggest run of our- lol no it isnt. But it will be telling. Need it to make at least a modest move in the right direction- like a little snow close to DC.

i said this earlier...

anyone have a memory of what happened three days before nemo hit. how did the models behave?

this reminds me of Nemo but the opposite. euro was on the western front that time showing 36 inches for NYC, ended up with like 8 inches. also gfs ended up showing the most eastern solutions than lost it for a day than brought it back! Euro never wavered until  the storm was about to hit! this reminds me of that but the opposite meaning GfS should start showing western hits again by tonight the latest otherwise my theory is wrong. Also euro isn't as good since that last upgrade a few years back and

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

HH Euro is gonna be the biggest run of our- lol no it isnt. But it will be telling. Need it to make at least a modest move in the right direction- like a little snow close to DC.

This is your storm, make it so

[WeatherGeek2025]

8 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

This is your storm, make it so

this reminds me of Nemo but the opposite. euro was on the western front that time showing 36 inches for NYC, ended up with like 8 inches. also gfs ended up showing the most eastern solutions than lost it for a day than brought it back! Euro never wavered until  the storm was about to hit! this reminds me of that but the opposite meaning GfS should start showing western hits again by tonight the latest otherwise my theory is wrong. Also euro isn't as good since that last upgrade a few years back

 

theory is euro won't cave west until go time, gfs will keep trending snowier

 

 

convinced we live in a simulation 

[mitchnick]

Here's a link to the 18z GGEM. Yes, the GGEM and not the Rgem. The GGEM runs at 6z and 18z too, but as far as I know, only Meteocentre has it; I'm sure you may be able to find it somewhere else, so have at it. The region I chose from the top of the page is Quebec because it's as close in to our area as you can get on this dos based website.

Anyway, the link below is for precip totals that fall as snow during the 84hr forecast period in mm. Basically, the dark blue stripe across central MD is at least 5mm, or .2". So figure 2"-3" at 10:1.

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?mod=cmc_gdps&run=18&type=SN&lang=en&map=qc&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest

Other info for the model are here:

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=18&mod=cmc_gdps&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

This is your storm, make it so

Bourbon in hand. Lets go. If it sucks, there is more bourbon.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

this reminds me of Nemo but the opposite. euro was on the western front that time showing 36 inches for NYC, ended up with like 8 inches. also gfs ended up showing the most eastern solutions than lost it for a day than brought it back! Euro never wavered until  the storm was about to hit! this reminds me of that but the opposite meaning GfS should start showing western hits again by tonight the latest otherwise my theory is wrong. Also euro isn't as good since that last upgrade a few years back

 

theory is euro won't cave west until go time, gfs will keep trending snowier

 

 

convinced we live in a simulation 

Hope you’re right, would be nice for a change 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Bourbon in hand. Lets go. If it sucks, there is more bourbon.

Always

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Bourbon in hand. Lets go. If it sucks, there is more bourbon.

And cod...don't forget the smelly cod

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And cod...don't forget the smelly cod

Fresh fish shouldn't smell like much of anything.

Have you never eaten fish and chips? Almost always cod. Alaskan Pollack is good too.

My fav fish is Tuna- bluefin if I can get it. Seared about 45 seconds a side. Fuck yeah.

 

[bncho]

GFS is more erratic than a drunk driver, RGEM is so warm that DC receives rain, Euro has been super SE for the last 24 model runs, and the AI models have been super consistent. And then there are a bunch of random models that should NOT be taken into account like the RRFS and the NAM at 84 hours and the ABCDEFG model. These models are so annoying, can't make up their minds lol

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EPS extended.  Impressive 30 day upper height anomaly.

If we get a 30 day mean like that and it doesn’t snow at all it’s time for a new hobby 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

If we get a 30 day mean like that and it doesn’t snow at all it’s time for a new hobby 

Yeah I mean again...unlike many of the years in this awful stretch WE'VE HAD COLD (I feel like we had it last year too). I mean C'MON...all we need is some moisture (which is why model runs for next week are encouraging)

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

I remember your children loved playing in the snow!

They still do!  They both ski now. We go sledding and play in the snow every storm. Unfortunately, I’m not still with their mom. 

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If we get a 30 day mean like that and it doesn’t snow at all it’s time for a new hobby 

If/when we get shut out with this upcoming pattern, would you chalk it up to bad luck, or something more serious like a fundamental shift in the base state?

[bncho]

18z Euro shift NW

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

18z Euro shift NW

How much?

[bncho]

Just now, Solution Man said:

How much?

just based off precip maps, it's like ~50 miles I think? give or take

[Weather Will]

Just now, Solution Man said:

How much?

1CM if any.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If/when we get shut out with this upcoming pattern, would you chalk it up to bad luck, or something more serious like a fundamental shift in the base state?

Dude. Always doing the Eeyore thing. Give it a rest lol. Why ask that shit? We need positivity in this thread.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

How much?

Got it

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

1CM if any.

About right. Didn't budge.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO shows no appreciable move NW at 18Z.  Trough is too progressive.

[87storms]

45 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I've had more interest in that time period (and/or just after that) than anything for this weekend.  As I said earlier in this thread, different deterministic models (GFS, Euro, CMC, whatever) have on and off shown some kind of really good event in that time.  Sometimes even extreme.  And the ensembles have as well.  Sure, it would disappear and reappear in the deterministic models from run to run (and Ji would complain if an ensemble mean snow map lost us an inch!!), but it's shown up somewhat regularly in that time frame.

this is much more inspiring than what we've been working with lately: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2026011518&fh=180

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

About right. Didn't budge.

Trying to be positive.  

[Paleocene]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They still do!  They both ski now. We go sledding and play in the snow every storm. Unfortunately, I’m not still with their mom. 

Divorce happens. Fortunately you still love your kids. That's what matters. Speaking from experience. Back to snow talk

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

this is much more inspiring than what we've been working with lately: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2026011518&fh=180

Ensemble support, too. 

[CAPE]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Trying to be positive.  

Hey it is what it is. GFS is on crack. My storm is on life support. On to the Chuck storm.