January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Today's storm is busting much snowier in the Detroit area. They were suppose to get flurries, and now have 4"

[CAPE]

18z EPS is slightly worse than 12z. Minor. No progress though.

[IronTy]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Today's storm is busting much snowier in the Detroit area. They were suppose to get flurries, and now have 4"

My dad reports 5" on the ground in Oakland county.  

[Ji]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

18z EPS is slightly worse than 12z. Minor. No progress though.

euro dosent jump from flurries to a blizzard in one run like the gfs does

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, IronTy said:

My dad reports 5" on the ground in Oakland county.  

My friend said there's a report of 6" NW of Detroit. I would guess it's a deeper 500mb as the low looks organized on radar. See how it does for the later storms in the next few model runs.. 

[IronTy]

This storm is the harbinger of our fading Nina pattern shift.  I've got a good feeling about this one.  

[IronTy]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

My friend said there's a report of 6" NW of Detroit. I would guess it's a deeper 500mb as the low looks organized on radar. See how it does for the later storms in the next few model runs.. 

Sounds right.  They're on 11 mile just NW of the Detroit metro area so that tracks.  

[winter_warlock]

FWIW....DT from Wxrisk  posted this 

 

WXRISK VIEW: There is the potential for a wave of LOW pressure to develop on the front but the question is how close to the coast. Most of the models for the past few days have been keeping this weak LOW well off the coast but the Trend started early WED with the GFS and the European AI models.

 

DISCUSSION/ MAPS

Last week in the newsletter I mentioned three specific winter storm threats between the period from January 15–30. AS i stated on SUNDAY the first threat of January 15- 16 is gone.

 

A stronger arctic cold front will sweep through the Midwest and reach the East Coast on Saturday January 17. This cold front appears to be much stronger and looks like it will bring snow showers to much of the Middle Atlantic region even into the Piedmont as far east is I — — 95 from NYC to Richmond. It would not surprise me to see an 1–2 inches of snow in the Shenandoah Valley., the mountains of PA, western MD, WV, southwest VA, and the mountains west in NC.

[Scraff]

Man a lot of beers and buffalo wings to digest. My day was cray. The cliff notes earlier—So very much appreciated. Thank you for that. I’ll eventually catch up on the rest of today by the time the Oz suite kicks in. Come on white gold!! You know we love watching you fall. Now get your ass on the ground and make a sledding hill for the kids or something. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

18z is in and Panic Room hasn’t been bumped in 9 hours.  Looks like we’re officially back in business?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Fwiw 0z Hrr 30hr vs 18z GFS 36hr 

[Solution Man]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Fwiw 0z Hrr 30hr vs 18z GFS 36hr 

Imma start calling you”Superchuck”

[stormtracker]

NAM ridge out west is a smidge higher, but can't say I like the slightly flatter flow out front so far.  Yes, it's the NAM.  But we got nothing else until the real deal runs.

[Maestrobjwa]

53 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Fwiw 0z Hrr 30hr vs 18z GFS 36hr 

I can just hear the Pokémon evolving music with this...lol (iykyk)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

NAM is definitely pushing the trough further west, near the Rockies at 51hr. A little flatter out ahead of it though. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

NAM is definitely pushing the trough further west, near the Rockies at 51hr. A little flatter out ahead of it though. 

Yup..backside of the trof is def further west.  Hope it means better things down the road

[stormtracker]

Backside much further west than 18z GFS and west of 18z NAM.  Hard to see where it's going yet tho

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup..backside of the trof is def further west.  Hope it means better things down the road

Little bit more of the vorticity south which might help pull it further south. 

[stormtracker]

So kinda hard to say for sure where it's going, but I think it's better?

[Solution Man]

Just now, stormtracker said:

So kinda hard to say for sure where it's going, but I think it's better?

Agree, we can put one in the plus column, even if it is the Nam

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

So kinda hard to say for sure where it's going, but I think it's better?

I'm from the NYC sub. But I enjoy y'all pbp an talk in here much more. Looks like the name gonna be good 

[Amped]

The southwest part of the troff drags back too much for a negative tilt.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

0z NAM vs 18z GFS lol

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

I'm from the NYC sub. But I enjoy y'all pbp an talk in here much more. Looks like the name gonna be good 

I still think it would slide just south and east of us on the NAM.  But...NAM.

[stormtracker]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

0z NAM vs 18z GFS lol

Carbon copy 

[stormtracker]

On to the Varsity models!

[TSSN+]

A SW that reachs the gulf? Wild. 
 

 

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Definitely something to this. NS dominant patterns are chaotic- turbulent, with vortices flying around all over the place- very difficult for model guidance to get all the wave interactions and timing correct, which ofc have a big impact on sensible weather. Southern stream dominant patterns tend to be prominent in El Nino years and generally have a "quieter" NS, esp with a NA blocking regime. Just a matter of waiting for a significant SS wave to track eastward and snow on us(hopefully).

Yes.  An already organized modest low pressure around Atlanta  moving northeast ward Does Not have to do anything. It already exists and maybe can even intensify  as it moves into our area’s  hopefully cold air.  Not much mechanics  there. 

 

[winter_warlock]

20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

0z NAM vs 18z GFS lol

 Definitely a more positive tilt compared to GFS.. in my opinion 

[Amped]

Icon is digging west also fwiw. Also digging the trailing wave over west Canada further west at 72, which could help.