January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Duca892]

So I have to be the weenie to ask... is there anything in the atmosphere preventing further western shifts? 

[Solution Man]

It’s coming , but do not open a thread

[Eskimo Joe]

Going to be very interested in the GEFS. If the snowfall mean ticks up, then we might be onto something here.

[Shad]

Can I lock that in here in the Northern Neck....Will be rain by next run the way thats trending!

[aldie 22]

7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I'd take this 

Well i've clearly pissed somebody off lol

[adelphi_sky]

8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I'd take this 

My son and I were just reminiscing about the snowstorm we chased at Ocean City when it sowed 12 inches. Would have been perfect if this started on Friday. Would probably be another opportunity.

[SnowenOutThere]

12 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

0z GFS had a notable jump west with the precip and had it more widespread getting it all the way to the Eastern parts of our subforum. Had a good amount of upper air improvements as well but just couldn't quite consolidate quickly enough around the southern part of the vort due to an extremely annoying vort max which acts as a minor development blocker. 

I'm honestly not sure if we can get the trends all the way to the southern end where we ultimately need it to be (just seems unlikely to get that solution in this situation akin to this Thursday), but if we were able to it would be a major storm.  

Lets reanalyze the situation. Obviously the GFS has continued to trend better for our area, but why has that happened? As I pointed out in this post we were struggling with a significant amount of vorticity north of where we want it to consolidate which prevents us from getting a good surface low going. The latest 12z GFS pretty much doesn't have that at all anymore as the flow behind it acts to pinch off the northern end of the vorticity and flatten it. 

Being brutally honest, I don't know how likely that really is to happen. Additionally, the vort lobes that were (and probably will) cause us problems still exist and have a bunch of complex low-to-low interactions out in the plains, luckily it ends with them merging into a weaker low. 

Another thing to note that helps this run out is the additional piece of energy south of the main vorticity ribbon. IMO without this energy (and it is nonexistent on some past runs) there isn't the same mechanism to get it to go so negatively tilted and as far south. 

If you can notice I'm not super enthused about this setup as it stands because 1. it seems complicated with so many interactions within the trough itself 2. This run seemed to go extremely well for us and it seems like adjusting any parameters (besides increasing the southern energy) may actually hurt us. That said, I'm also a bit pessimistic from other tracking this year so I may be biased, additionally, I am not one of the actually smart mets on here so defer to them but I hope this helps people understand what to look for. Additionally, my somewhat pessimistic view doesn't mean I don't think its a possibility, but instead that is exactly what this storm is to me, a possibility, NOT a certainty or "lock" like less complicated setup. 

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

It’s coming , but do not open a thread

Gonna wait until some consistent runs before even thinking about it.  This could be a blip

[Shad]

Canadian not seeing it

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Shad said:

Canadian not seeing it

It has the northern vort lobe and a broader trough so until those two features fix themselves its hard to get anything. 

[stormtracker]

Yeah, CMC didn't do it

[Solution Man]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Gonna wait until some consistent runs before even thinking about it.  This could be a blip

Yes, we’ve been skinned up before 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Shad said:

Canadian not seeing it

It's closer, light snow over DC at 102.

[WxUSAF]

Icon has something but a very different evolution. More of a Miller B from the northern vort than a storm approaching us from the south.

[Shad]

CMC did improve so perhaps we can get a trend started with it......

[WxUSAF]

Canadian definitely took a step toward something. Gets NYC to New England after dusting us.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

So I have to be the weenie to ask... is there anything in the atmosphere preventing further western shifts? 

A large part of what is allowing the shortwave energy to dig more and earlier is the ridge out west is more amplified/steeper than earlier runs. Also better interaction among the different pieces of vorticity. Not sure how much further west it can go unless there are more corrections to come in the upper levels- like the ridge axis being further west. Personally, I am fine with how it is currently modeled.. maybe a tad further west.

[wxmeddler]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What rule is this? 

I've noticed over the years that 500mb jet streaks / vorticity "ribbons" coming in over the western ridge that go over Yellowstone tend to give us good Miller A events. Not anything scientific, just an sign that I look for. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A large part of what is allowing the shortwave energy to dig more and earlier is the ridge out west is more amplified/steeper than earlier runs. Also better interaction among the different pieces of vorticity. Not sure how much further west it can go unless there are more corrections to come in the upper levels- like the ridge axis being further west. Personally, I am fine with how it is currently modeled.. maybe a tad further west.

The Reno upper air site sampled a record western ridge at 591dm. That ob was in place for the 12z model suite, and voila...everything tucks closer to the coast. Do not underestimate the importance of upper air data beyond HR90.

[Ji]

16 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Well i've clearly pissed somebody off lol

told you not to move west

[Terpeast]

Taking notes... GFS, ICON, and CMC all three trended closer to the coast for the Sunday system. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Taking notes... GFS, ICON, and CMC all three trended closer to the coast for the Sunday system. 

UKMET did too?

[Shad]

the 6z Euro trended West as well, i would bet its going to push west a bit more with the 12z

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

GEFS with a lot more members closer to the coast, so it's not just op.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

UKMET did too?

Out to 36 on pivotal. Will find out soon. 

[LP08]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Out to 36 on pivotal. Will find out soon. 

Very early but its a slight bit wester coming into Montana.  

[stormtracker]

And this one is 100 hours, with important features showing up under 100.  I hope this isnt a blip because we kinda need this one.   And if it goes wrong, it is 100% @CAPE fault.

[Terpeast]

We're still 12-24 hours past the critical 4 day window for this system, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it trend even further at 18z and 00z. Sometimes we even see it trend (either way) inside 48 hours!